NFL survivor pools have been an absolute bloodbath through the first two weeks of the season, so if you are still alive, your overall odds have gotten significantly better. 

As the field decreases, it is more important than ever that you follow along and adjust accordingly with the best survivor pool strategy. Checking in with the Vegas odds and money lines, we have a few interesting options for our survivor pool picks with teams who seem to be in strong situations. 

 

 

 

Are we buying the Cleveland Browns as such a strong favorite? Do we dare look at the 0-2 Cincinnati Bengals? What is our level of interest in the San Francisco 49ers as such a heavy road favorite. 

Time to check in with the best survivor pool strategy and see in which direction we want to go.    

Best NFL Survivor Pool Strategy For 2024 NFL Week 3

When we discuss the best survivor pool strategy and making the right adjustments, it's not about being contrarian with your survivor pool picks just yet or even mapping out the rest of the season. 

As a reminder, I've laid out some survivor pool guidelines to follow for making your survivor pool picks, and while we've seen things get blown up in the first two weeks, you have to hold steadfast and maintain your process. All too often, people get panicky when they see things go so awry so early.

We are going to maintain exactly what we've been doing. The first two weeks of the season always get a little crazy as teams hold their players out of preseason games. That turns these first two weeks into tune-up games for many, especially for players who didn't play in the preseason at all and new coaches and coordinators installing new offensive schemes. 

But now we've seen a lot of the nuances and have more data to analyze with regard to the matchups. So, let's maintain what we believe to be the best survivor pool strategy and check out our options for NFL Week 3. 

 

 

 

NFL Survivor Pool Picks For Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5 Favorite; -375 Money Line)

This will be the scariest of all survivor pool picks. In our first Best Survivor Pool strategy article, we stared in the face of the Bengals’ injuries and defiantly took them anyway. Our assumption was that the Patriots were that bad and while they were, the Bengals were worse. 

Fast forward to Week 3 and Cincinnati is 0-2 and hosting a Monday Night Football game against the Washington Commanders. This is the biggest spread and the juiciest of money lines and, while that has now fallen victim in two straight weeks, we’re going to back them with our survivor pool picks. 

The Commanders are still very much a work in progress and Jayden Daniels isn’t quite there yet with his passing. Joe Burrow, on the other hand, took steps forward last week against the Chiefs and is determined to turn things around for his team this week. 

They are also supposed to be getting Tee Higgins back which will certainly turn their passing game up a few notches. Scared money don’t make money. Give me the Bengals.

 

 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5 Favorite; -300 Money Line)

While this game might not have the largest spread or the money line with the highest juice, it’s probably still one of my favorite picks, simply because the Denver Broncos are still such a hot mess. Yes, water finds its own level and you have to have some confidence in Sean Payton and Joe Lombardi, but Bo Nix still has some learning to do before this offense even remotely starts humming. 

The Bucs defense ranks 13th overall and have been solid against both the run and the pass, two things the Broncos have yet to master. On the other side, Baker Mayfield has been strong through the first two weeks and both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have maintained their status as high-end receivers. 

The Broncos do have Patrick Surtain and a strong secondary, so there will be major efforts to stifle the two wideouts, but a 1-2 punch on the ground from Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, coupled with some over-the-middle passes to tight end Cade Otton and Godwin when he’s running shorter routes out of the slot should be the Bucs bread and butter. Denver’s defense gets tired after all the three-and-outs, so we’ll lean on Tampa Bay getting it done at home.

 

 

 

Cleveland Browns (-6.5 Favorite; -350 Money Line)

It’s a decent-sized spread, strong money line favoring the Browns, and the Giants have looked bad in their first two games. Iy checks three very important boxes for our best survivor pool strategy. 

Still, this is only my third-favorite of the picks and one that I feel I am going to sweat through. I’m not worried about the Giants offense. The Browns have a great pass-rush, a decent run defense and a strong secondary that can contain Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson. The game total should tell you we don’t expect New York to do much here.

The Browns offense might be what scares me the most. I think Jerome Ford can have a fantastic day running all over this Giants 26th-ranked run defense, but the passing attack is where the concern lies. It’s all about Deshaun Watson. He’s got weapons in Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore. He just struggles to get them the ball. 

If the defensive coverage is soft enough, Watson should be able to get the job done. He’s just going to have to show up and show improvement from the first two weeks. Might be your only legitimate opportunity to take the Browns, so if you think you want to use them up early for your survivor pool picks, this would be the time.