We continue the holiday weekend NFL action with the second annual Black Friday Football game on Amazon as the Las Vegas Raiders visit their AFC West rivals, and defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. These two teams are heading in opposite directions. The Chiefs are sitting at 10-1 and control their own destiny in the AFC playoff picture for the top seed. On the other end of the spectrum, the Raiders are losers of seven straight games, they sit at 2-9, and are likely looking for long-term solutions once again at quarterback and head coach in the upcoming offseason. But at the end of the day, this is still a unique NFL DFS Showdown slate to preview so here are Friday’s top Raiders vs. Chiefs DFS picks for Black Friday Football on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Raiders vs. Chiefs DFS Picks & Preview: Black Friday Football, 11/29

It’s been quite the season for the Las Vegas Raiders. For as beautiful and amazing as their stadium is just off the Vegas strip, the product they’re putting on the football field is rough. But at least they have a future star in Brock Bowers, but they are desperate for so many other pieces on offense and defense.

They’re riding a seven-game losing streak and Antonio Pierce is on the hot seat. It does sound like the organization likes general manager Tom Telesco, but this team has such a massive rebuild ahead. 

Gardner Minshew is done for the year and it’s not as if he was viewed as the future of the franchise to begin with. The team knows what they have in Aidan O’Connell and they already had to ship out Davante Adams prior to this year’s NFL trade deadline. And to make matters worse they have to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Black Friday.

The Chiefs are poised for another deep playoff run in the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era. They’ve had their share of injuries, but they are slated to get a key piece of their running game back as Isiah Pacheco was activated off injured reserve. They’ll likely limit him and try to keep him healthy ahead of another playoff push, but this feels like one of those “get in, get out” kinds of games for Kansas City as they likely get the win and hope to avoid serious injuries.

 

 

 

Raiders vs. Chiefs Black Friday Football Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -13 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Raiders (+470)
    • Chiefs (-650)
  • Game Total: Over 42.5 (-110) / Under 42.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -12.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Raiders (+570)
    • Chiefs (-820)
  • Game Total: Over 42.5 (-110) / Under 42.5 (-110)

Not that anyone is heavily laying money on the Chiefs ML but just make note of the differences on the ML values between both sites if you are looking to bet either team outright.

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Raiders vs. Chiefs, Black Friday Football, November 29th

There aren’t any significant weather concerns for this game aside from the fact it’ll be cold. Around kickoff it’ll be 37 degrees and will drop as the game progresses. But the skies will be mostly clear with no wind. Overall, the weather shouldn’t play too much of a role for this Black Friday Football game.

 

Raiders vs. Chiefs Injuries: Black Friday Football, Week 13

As always, I will remind you all that Monday injury reports for games happening on a short week are always estimated. Teams in this game do not practice on Monday, but they are required to release an injury report. 

For the visiting Las Vegas Raiders, only Zamir White and Nate Hobbs have been ruled out for this Black Friday Football game on Amazon. Alexander Mattison is questionable after he was inactive last week, but I do expect that he’ll suit up and split the backfield duties with Ameer Abdullah.

The Kansas City Chiefs are relatively healthy, all things considered. And by that, the biggest concern is at kicker. Harrison Butker is on IR and Spencer Shrader injured his hamstring in a private workout on Monday. But Matthew Wright filled in admirably and did very well back in Week 6.

The big news for the Chiefs is in regard to Isiah Pacheco who carries no injury designation ahead of this game and is expected to play. How much will he play? That remains to be seen and is anyone’s guess…

 

 

 

NFL Black Friday Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $16,000

Mahomes’ price tag on DraftKings actually isn’t terrible. He’s thrown exactly three touchdowns in three of his last four games and even managed to run/scramble for 60 yards a week ago against the Carolina Panthers. The Chiefs are massive favorites in this game and have an implied team total of nearly 28 points. However, they’ve covered the spread just twice all year.

For the most part, Kansas City is either playing to the level of their opponent or simply just letting inferior teams hang around too much. They should’ve lost to the Denver Broncos in Week 10. They only beat the Panthers by a field goal last week. And even when these two teams met earlier in the year, the Chiefs won 27-20.

All this is to say that Mahomes will make every single one of my NFL DFS lineups for this Black Friday Football game. Whether he’s at Captain/MVP or in the flex, he’ll be in every single one of my builds simply because he’s the safest play on the slate. Back in Week 9 against the Raiders he completed 71.1% of his pass attempts for 262 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

Bowers lines up in the slot on over half his routes and the Chiefs are bottom 10 in the NFL at 5.3% CPOE (completion percentage over expected) against slot receivers.

But we also know that Bowers, despite being a rookie, sees a huge chunk of the targets. In three games this year he’s seen five or fewer targets. In every other game he’s seen at least eight targets including five games with double-digit targets since Week 5.

When these two teams met a few weeks ago, Bowers caught all five of his targets for 58 yards. Since then, the Chiefs lost Jaylen Watson and the secondary has severely struggled, but can we trust Bowers’ volume with Aidan O’Connell under center? If you’re risk averse, you’re okay going overweight here, but O’Connell was a full participant in practice and the two connected on 17-of-22 targets between Weeks 5 and 6 for 168 yards and a touchdown.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $10,500

Great price tag for Meyers on both sites. The good news is that we know the Raiders, regardless of who is at quarterback, do typically consolidate the offensive targets mostly to Bowers and Meyers. The bad news is that Meyers may not see as much of a matchup upgrade as Bowers does.

It’s not that it’s bad but the Chiefs deploy 2-High coverage shells at a 60% rate, which is third-most in the NFL. Meyers sees a slight efficiency drop against this coverage. If we can hang our hat on anything, Meyers did see nine targets back in Week 5 from Aidan O’Connell. He caught six of them and found the end zone.

Since returning from injury, Meyers does still command a decent target share with 39 targets in four games and as mentioned above, the Chiefs secondary has had its struggles since Jaylen Watson went down. In a trailing game script, there should be ample targets available for both Bowers and Meyers despite the coverage scheme on the defensive side.

 

 

 

NFL Black Friday Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,500

This is a great price tag for Kelce on FanDuel where he is actually cheaper than Desmond Ridder. I’m guessing his girlfriend will be in attendance since all eyes will be on this game. Plus her world tour wraps up next week in Vancouver so her schedule is clear for this matchup and I’m guessing he’d like to put on a performance for her.

We’re just a handful of weeks removed from Kelce catching 10-of-12 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown against this same Raiders team and he does have 52 targets over his last five games despite Noah Gray getting most of the fanfare.

Kelce does see his efficiency drop off against 2-High coverage shells. Per Dataroma and Fantasy Points Data, his TPRR drops from 25% to 20% against this coverage. But despite the emergence of Gray the last couple games, Kelce is still Mahomes’ preferred target and may come in at softer ownership since Gray will be such heavy chalk for this game.

Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $8,500

This is a such a sheep pick. And I feel somewhat stupid putting him here because he’s going to be immense chalk. I gave serious consideration to putting him in the section above but ultimately changed my mind.

Noah Gray has four touchdowns on the year, and they’ve all come in his last two games. But he only has nine targets in that two-game sample size with 89 receiving yards. So yeah, this is obviously a huge regression spot.

But after the success the last couple games, the coaching staff has done nothing but sing his praise as a route runner. This shouldn’t surprise anyone, given Kelce’s age, but Noah Gray has created more separation than Kelce the last few games which has been a key component to him scoring four times.

From a pure ownership perspective, this looks like a fish play. The Chiefs have so many options that are more expensive than Gray that casual players likely drink the Kool-Aid and play him at Captain/MVP at a decent rate. From a value perspective he’s a good play given the price tag on both sites.

 

 

 

NFL Black Friday Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $14,500

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

You need to take some risks on Showdown slates. It’s just one game and ultimately you want leverage in some situations. This running back duo is going to give people fits. A lot of folks may avoid it, but ultimately I think most will take the discount with Kareem Hunt and the logic is sound.

Pacheco is set to be activated for this game. However, we don’t know how much he’s going to play. It could be just a handful of touches for him. His price tag on FanDuel is certainly an eyesore but also may provide some leverage. You should at least understand that there are sharks in large-field GPP’s that can take advantage of his low ownership. I play low-dollar, high-volume for Showdown slates so I’ll be mixing in some shares but keeping expectations in check.

Hunt probably is the safer play, but he has lacked explosiveness of late. The volume has been great and it’s still possible he sees the lion’s share of touches for this game and he’s potentially optimal as a flex play with 60 rushing yards, three catches, and a touchdown.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

I’m skipping over DeAndre Hopkins simply because he’s seen his route share dip under 50% (as low as 44.7% for last week’s game). It’s odd but he and JuJu Smith-Schuster (more on him later) have almost been splitting one job and they’ve both been utilized more with shorter routes.

So I do prefer Worthy from the standpoint that he doesn’t come off the field very often (69.5% route share which leads all Kansas City WR’s) and he does get the deeper targets downfield. He has back-to-back games with four receptions, and he found the end zone back in Week 8 against these same Raiders. Risky? Sure. But if we’re anticipating a routing by the Chiefs then we have to consider every option that they have.

 

 

 

NFL Black Friday Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $8,500

It’s hard to tell what we get from Tucker in this game. He actually does see an impressive target share despite most of the passing volume being funneled to Bowers and Meyers. But for a value play he does have five games this year with at least six targets. The downside is that the fantasy production is rather pedestrian if he isn’t finding the end zone, but you can make that case for several players. Tucker also plays about 80% of the snaps so he may actually be a player I aim to be overweight on for this Showdown matchup. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s the team’s punt returner so there’s a small chance at a special teams touchdown.

If you need a second option from Vegas, then DJ Turner is probably your best bet. He doesn’t see the field as much as Tucker but he saves you $2,000 on DraftKings and has seen seven targets in his last two games.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

The one thing going for JJSS is that he runs over half his snaps from the slot and we’ve noted how bad the Raiders are at defending receivers and tight ends that line up in the slot. His production has been miserable over his last two games and he’s losing snaps to DeAndre Hopkins. I don’t love the upside here, but I also don’t anticipate significant ownership on him either.

Samaje Perine, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $6,500

Very affordable price tag on FanDuel for Perine. With all the talk of trying to see where ownership falls on Pacheco and Hunt, we should at least entertain the idea of getting exposure to the Chiefs’ third running back. And it’s entirely possible Perine sees more work than Pacheco.

Perine has caught at least two passes in five straight games. If this game is a blowout, he may get a little extra run late in the game alongside Carson Steele. The Raiders are tough against the run (just 4.29 YPC and they’re 15th in EPA/Rush according to Dataroma). But if building out 5:1 or 4:2 stacks in favor of Kansas City, Perine is a good “game script” play if you’re projecting a blowout.

Justin Watson, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,000

Watson doesn’t get a ton of volume. But you know what he does get? Snaps! He only has 18 catches on the season, but he plays about 64% of the snaps. And he caught all three of his targets against Las Vegas in their last meeting and he turned those into 33 yards. At this price tag, you’ll take that kind of production and if he somehow finds the end zone (which has yet to happen this year), then he’s likely in the optimal lineup.

Aidan O’Connell, QB, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $5,000

I’m listing O’Connell in this section because he’s the starting QB for the Raiders and FanDuel screwed up when pricing him. He’s a reasonable option on DraftKings and correlates well with Bowers and Meyers if you play them at Captain. But on FanDuel this is an absurdly low price for a starting quarterback.

 

 

 

Black Friday Football DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

DraftKings got cute and priced the Chiefs D/ST at $6,800 which is pretty aggressive for this Showdown slate. The Raiders have an implied team total that’s somewhat insulting, but we also know that the Chiefs have only covered the spread twice all season. And they have only one game all season with more than double-digit fantasy points. Now in fairness, they do blitz at a high rate (34.9%) and generate a good amount of pressure (27.0%). But for whatever reason that’s only yielded 21 sacks in 11 games. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, but this play feels like a trap as I think there’s a decent chance the Raiders put up some points like they did when these teams met earlier in the year.

I have almost no interest in playing the Raiders D/ST. Affordable? Sure, but from a fantasy perspective they’re garbage. They have six sacks in their last five games and 20 total on the season. And they only have five takeaways while allowing nearly 27 points per game to opposing offenses. Now if there’s a weakness for the Chiefs, it’s at left tackle. But the organization did sign D.J. Humphries on Monday but it’s unclear if he’ll be ready in time for this game. But overall, I have low expectations for this D/ST that did nothing when these two teams met earlier this season. If anything, I may play them in lineups where I also play Tre Tucker because if he returns a punt for a touchdown, you’re double dipping and getting 12 points.

The kickers are in play and the preferred play is probably Matthew Wright at $5,000 on DraftKings even though nobody really knows who he is. The Raiders defense is just so bad that kickers are almost guaranteed to get at least two field goal attempts and some extra point opportunities to boot (not sure if that qualifies as a pun, but it was definitely intended). 

 

 

 

Raiders vs. Chiefs DFS Player Pool: Black Friday Football, 11/29

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-