We bid adieu to the 2023 NFL season with a match-up for the AFC East crown on Sunday night. The Buffalo Bills head to South Beach for a pivotal game against the Miami Dolphins. Would I prefer the game to be played in the elements in the middle of a snowstorm? You know it! But that would render the Dolphins completely useless and I want to say goodbye to this year on a high note with a competitive spectacle! The Bills are currently 10-6 and riding high on a four-game winning streak since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. The Miami Dolphins are licking their wounds after an absolute beating at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens last week. The Fins lost Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL and Xavien Howard left with an injury as well. On top of that, it’s possible that with the AFC East championship on the line, the Dolphins could be without Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle. Ultimately, we should approach this game with an “all hands on deck” approach if you have breath in your body for either team. So it should be a great send-off for the regular season as we march toward the playoffs. Let’s dig in for one last Sunday night slate and take a look at tonight’s NFL DFS Showdown lineup picks!

 

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Over/Under: 48.5 Points

Weather: It will be fairly humid on Sunday. It’ll rain overnight Saturday into Sunday, but around the time they kick off for this game the rain will be gone with temps in the mid 60’s. Winds should be relatively contained between 5-10 mph, but there will be some moisture in the air.

Notable Injuries

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Tyreek has been going through it this week. One of his kids was playing with matches and accidentally set fire to his house in South Beach. Everyone’s fine by all accounts, but obviously it’s still something that lingers on the mind. Fortunately, Hill is an absolute animal and a target hog at that. In fact, he hasn’t scored since Week 13 and had a brutal touchdown drop last week that would have easily put him over 20 fantasy points. Has Buffalo’s secondary excelled despite the injuries on the defensive side of the ball? Sure, but we know Hill is arguably match-up proof. He’s quick, he creates space, and with the division title on the line (and Jaylen Waddle likely out) why wouldn’t they force feed him the ball? This game environment seems perfect for Hill to pop off for 100+ receiving yards and at least one score.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Allen’s passing volume has been low of late. In fact, in Buffalo’s four-game winning streak, Allen has as many touchdowns (three) as he does interceptions (three). The difference maker is that he’s running more and he has EIGHT rushing touchdowns in his last five games. We love quarterbacks with rushing upside and even though Allen has just 66 pass attempts in his last three games, we love the game environment for both offenses and he popped off with five total touchdowns when these teams met back in Week 4. That came out to nearly 40 points on DraftKings. Has Allen thrown an interception in 11 of his last 12 games? Sure, but we’re chasing his ceiling for one game. I’ll take three interceptions if he’s responsible for five touchdowns and with Miami a little beat up on the defensive side, I’ll lean into the Captaincy exposure a little bit more.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills

Look, I get it. At this point it seems like I’m just listing the most expensive players up top and Diggs has been horrendous of late. In five of his last six games he’s scored in the single digits on DraftKings and that’s in the Joe Brady era. He hasn’t popped off for 100+ receiving yards since *checks notes* WEEK SIX?! Think about what we’re looking for in the Josh Allen section. Sure, the passing volume is down and that certainly impacts Diggs. But there’s No Bradley Chubb and no Xavien Howard for this game. I don’t like calling my shot on Diggs being a leverage play, but the recent play may just drive exposure down at Captain. And this is the time to pounce. He’s still Allen’s favorite target and the implied total is quite high. Now with Howard out, that might mean Jalen Ramsey shadows Diggs in this game. So downgrade him at your own risk. For a Showdown slate, I’m still willing to roll the dice.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

Achane finally returned to that “rookie phenom” form we were seeking for so many weeks. Last week he rushed for over 100 yards, caught four passes, and found the end zone. This week, Raheem Mostert is questionable for this game so that automatically bumps up Achane from a potential volume standpoint. The Bills haven’t been incredibly easy to run on of late, but we may have volume here and it’s entirely dependent on the status of Raheem Mostert ahead of this game, so we probably aren’t locking in our lineups until we get inactives for this game.

Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills

Davis is going to do one of two things Sunday night: 1. He will break the slate as the optimal Captain, or 2. He will crush any lineup you put him in. Since Week 5, based on DraftKings’ scoring, he has four games with 23+ fantasy points. He has seen seven games with fewer than five fantasy points, and in four of those outings he didn’t even record a catch. He’s the ultimate all-or-nothing play in DFS, but we will take that risk in Showdown. We know the chemistry between Diggs and Allen hasn’t been there since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator. And the good news for Davis is that Diggs will likely be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey so that should upgrade Davis who always possesses that big play potential. But at the same time, he can easily go out and provide your lineups with a doughnut.

Mid-Tier & NFL DFS Value Plays

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

Tua hasn’t had a bad year by any means, but turnovers have been costly at times. He only has 12 interceptions, but he has fumbled 13 times, five of which were lost, and he doesn’t have a single rushing touchdown. He’s never been known for his work with his legs, but even with all his weapons he has just seven passing touchdowns in his last six games and he hasn’t thrown for 300+ yards in that span. The Bills defense has taken its licks but the players that have stepped in have played pretty well. Tua’s stock for this match-up is in better shape the more weapons that are active. The Bills are still top 10 in Pass DVOA so even with the high total, Tua isn’t necessarily a lock by any means.

Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

I’ll be brief on both. Waddle and Mostert are both questionable heading into this match-up. Mostert was inactive last week and he’s popped up on Miami’s injury report numerous times this season. Waddle seems to be trending towards playing, which is a good sign after he recorded at least eight targets in five straight games from weeks 11-15. The Bills rank 26th in DVOA against WR2’s so that bodes well for Waddle if he can suit up and with the high total, we expect both offenses to throw well. Neither Mostert nor Waddle practiced until Friday and even then, both were limited. I prefer Waddle over Mostert given that Miami just saw Achane shoulder the workload last week and they can take it easy with Mostert if they need to. But both are viable options if they’re active. Update: Tom Pelissero reported overnight that neither Waddle nor Mostert are expected to play in tonight’s game.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

It seemed like a large majority of Buffalo’s starters on the offensive line popped up on the injury report this week, but they did practice in full on Friday. That’s good news for Cook and the Dolphins are just 21st in Rush DVOA and they just gave up 160 yards on the ground to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17. Cook seems due for 15+ touches which is great for a player at $8,000 on this slate. You can certainly play him at Captain because of his involvement in the passing game but you also need a touchdown or two out of him after some poor outings in weeks 16 and 17.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid’s a little bit discounted this week. Since Dawson Knox returned from injury his role has diminished a bit, but he still has some involvement with the offense. He caught four-of-seven targets last week for 87 yards including a big gain for 51. As Britt Flinn noted in this week’s NFL Match-Up Previews, Kincaid is in a good spot with the Dolphins scheming for Stefon Diggs and Miami ranks 27th in DVOA against the tight end position. Moreover, Bradley Chubb went down with a season-ending injury so that potentially makes Kincaid an even more intriguing play after both of Isaiah Likely’s receptions last week went for touchdowns for Baltimore.

Cedrick Wilson, WR, Miami Dolphins

With news that Jaylen Waddle is now doubtful, that’s a massive boost to Wilson and he’ll likely be quite popular now as the presumed WR2 for Miami. He’s caught at least two targets in four straight games, and he found the end zone last week. I didn’t initially like the $4,400 price tag but now that Waddle is doubtful we have an interesting spot for Wilson and these cheap Miami pass catchers as the Buffalo defense likely focuses on Tyreek Hill.

Defenses/Special Teams and Kickers

I’ll be brief with this section. With a total this high I don’t really want to target either D/ST. Both are affordable but if we’re expecting plenty of offense in this game that’s a bit of a detriment to both defenses. However, there are obviously arguments for each team. For starters, both quarterbacks in this game have a tendency to turn the ball over. Josh Allen has 16 interceptions on the year with six fumbles (three lost). Tua Tagovailoa has a dozen interceptions with 13 fumbles (five lost). And at the end of the day this is a position of variance. Any kick return for a score, or a turnover brought back for six points can help these groups. But when these two teams met in Buffalo back in Week 4, they combined for 68 points and over 800 yards of offense. The Bills had four sacks and two takeaways while the Dolphins had just two sacks. But remember, with injuries these defenses look completely different as of right now and Miami will be down some key pieces on offense. I’m more inclined to consider the kickers, but mostly as correlation pieces. The kickers don’t have nearly the upside as some of the names mentioned up above so I’d rather utilize them in the flex if a teammate is in there at Captain. If this game is a shootout there can still be volume for both kickers and we know these teams can move the ball between the 20’s.

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Jeff Wilson, RB, Miami Dolphins

Wilson will benefit if Mostert has to miss a second consecutive game. He didn’t do much last week, but he did have three carries for 21 yards in addition to three receptions. His price is slowly growing, but he can still pay off this price tag with a few catches and if he does score, he’ll likely make the optimal lineup. Update: Giving Wilson an upgrade with the news Mostert is unlikely to play.

Durham Smythe, TE, Miami Dolphins

If you’ve paid attention to Andrew Cooper’s NFL DFS Tight End Coach series this year, there have been some instances where he’s acknowledged Smythe as a cheap dart throw for main slates. The appeal with Smythe is that he rarely comes off the field and runs plenty of routes. The last couple weeks the injuries have mounted for Miami. He has 14 receptions on 15 targets in his last four games and he’s gone for 50+ receiving yards in back-to-back games.

Ty Johnson, RB, Buffalo Bills

We already wrote up why James Cook is a viable play this week, and while Latavius Murray appears as the RB2 on Buffalo’s depth chart, Johnson has been getting more action the last couple weeks. Johnson has 34 touches over his last four games including six receptions in that span. He’s only $1,400 on DraftKings and this is the kind of game environment that caters to what he can do rather than Latavius Murray who has just one touch in his last two games and isn’t seeing many offensive snaps.

Chase Claypool, WR, Miami Dolphins

This is a complete shot in the dark. I have very little logic or reasoning behind this recommendation because he may not play many snaps. There have been reports that his involvement in practice has increased (whatever that means) and with Jaylen Waddle likely out, there may be more reps for him. He’s the bare minimum of $200 on DraftKings and his lone target last week was a deep pass in the end zone. But true to his nature, he dropped it. There are obvious other cheap options like Braxton Berrios, River Cracraft, or even Robbie Chosen. The latter two are both priced under $1,000. But if you need a $200 punt to make the rest of your lineup work, then Claypool is at least interesting if Tua decides to go back to him this week for another shot at a touchdown.