NFL Week 16 DFS starts up tonight with an interesting Thursday Night Football game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets. Both teams have their assets and your DFS showdown lineups will have a lot of permutations, but keep in mind the weather in this game. We are expecting rain throughout the game so the field will be slick and the play could get a little sloppy. We’ve accounted for all of that in the write-up below, so read through it carefully. Focus on the obvious chalk plays and get contrarian with a fill-in or two but don’t go crazy with it. We want the best chance to cash as possible, so beware too many darts.

Now before we begin, for those who are new to the process, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets

Spread: Jets -2

O/U: 37

Weather: rain throughout w/ temperatures in the mid-40s; winds blowing ENE at 13 mph

Notable Injuries:

Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets

2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • vs Pass: 32nd 
  • vs Run: 14th 

New York Jets

  • vs Pass: 6th 
  • vs Run: 7th 

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

MVP/Captain

Travis Etienne, RB Jacksonville Jaguars

While the Jets defense is strong against the run, we could see some vulnerability between the inclement weather and the injury to Quinnen Williams who may still play but won’t be at 100-percent if he does. Etienne was slumping for a few weeks but got back on-track last week with a 100-yard effort against the Cowboys. He’ll be tasked with shouldering the load in this game and should be a solid option in the top spot.

Zonovan Knight, RB New York Jets

Knight put in a full practice on Wednesday but was then listed on the team’s final injury report with the ankle issue reported during last week’s game. The assumption is that he plays, so maybe the questionable tag gets us a lower ownership rate. Jacksonville is allowing 118.1 rushing yards per game with 14 rushing touchdowns on the season, but that yardage number has jumped to just over 130 yards per game over the last three weeks.

New York Jets D/ST

The Jets defense ranks seventh in the league with 39 sacks and they’re limiting opposing quarterbacks to just a 79.0 pass-rating this year. They have a strong run defense and while they only have 15 takeaways on defense, the Jaguars do have 18 giveaways so  look for Gang Green to be opportunistic in what could be a very sloppy game in the rain.

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays

Michael Carter, RB New York Jets

If you believe Knight is limited with his ankle injury and doesn’t get the full complement of his carries, then you can certainly pivot to Carter in your lineups. The Jags have been solid against running back pass-plays, but given the weather, we should see a lot more north-south running.

Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST

The Jaguars rank fourth in the league with 22 takeaways and are going to be ball-hawking every time Zach Wilson throws a pass. They can also be opportunistic with turnovers as we saw last week with the win over Dallas. If this game gets sloppy, the Jags defense should be reliable for some extra points.

Trevor Lawrence, QB Jacksonville Jaguars

The development of Lawrence has been fun to watch as the Jaguars very much remain in playoff contention and could even win the AFC South with a win in this game. The weather is likely to be a problem as we expect rain throughout the game and the Jets defense is no joke, but we’re still going to give Lawrence a look as he will have to pass the ball at some point. Look for him to shorten up the throws and keep his pass-catchers involved.

Zach Wilson, QB New York Jets

Even in a match-up against such a poor pass defense, you should be concerned with what kind of a game Wilson gives you. He’s got potential, but after seeing him throw some of these passes up in the air with such reckless abandon, it’s a little nerve-wracking. If you’re a multi-lineup player then it’s good to get a share of him, but the weather is going to make things difficult for him.  

Garrett Wilson, WR New York Jets

Yes, we all wish Mike White was playing but he’s not and we just have to accept it. Wilson is still the top target in the Jets receiving corps and while we don’t expect the Jets to be chucking the ball all over the field, they’re still going to have throw. He’s averaged eight targets per game with Zach under center and should receive his full complement of looks.

Evan Engram, TE Jacksonville Jaguars

While the Jets do rank fourth in DVOA against the tight end, we expect the Jaguars to shorten up their passing game in this rain. Engram could see a few extra targets come his way, especially if he has some family and friends coming to see him play again at Met Life Stadium.

Corey Davis, WR New York Jets

With no injury designation, we expect to see Davis on the field and in the sights of Wilson for a healthy dose of targets. When they were paired up earlier in the season, Davis saw five to six targets per game with a couple of them coming inside the red zone. And yes, he actually did have a touchdown over that three-game span. The weather is going to make it tough, but he should still get some targets here.

Christian Kirk, WR Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jets secondary is one of their biggest strengths so this could be a tough week for Kirk and the other Jaguars receivers. If the Jets don’t do any shadowing with Sauce Gardner, then Kirk should see Michael Carter II in slot coverage which would be the better match-up for Kirk. Keep your expectations in check.

Zay Jones, WR Jacksonville Jaguars

He certainly isn’t going to light it up for three touchdowns this week, so if you’re chasing last week’s points, be very careful. Jones will see his usual complement of targets, but the coverage is going to be tight and the weather is going to be bad. You can certainly use him in your lineup, but like with Kirk, you need to keep those expectations in check.

Elijah Moore, WR New York Jets

We know that he isn’t one of Wilson’s favorite targets but with the way the Jags struggle against the slot-receiver, if you are setting multiple lineups and want to get a little contrarian, Moore can be considered.

Braxton Berrios, WR New York Jets

He’s the Jets gadget-guy so while it can be very difficult to predict when he’s going to get the touches, especially inside the red zone, he shouldn’t be ignored in this game. The weather should make throwing a bit more difficult, so if the Jets get creative with the running – jet sweeps/end-arounds – Berrios is likely to see those touches.

Tyler Conklin, TE New York Jets

The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. Yes, it was C.J. Uzomah who caught the touchdowns last week, but we’ll stay with the guy who is seeing way more snaps and usually sees the majority of targets.

JaMycal Hasty, RB Jacksonville Jaguars

While Etienne will lead the charge, Hasty could get mixed in fairly often should the rain force the Jags to rely more heavily on the running game. Hasty can be explosive at times, so if Williams is out for the Jets, they could run Hasty right at that spot.

Marvin Jones, WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Maybe a little better than a dart-throw given everything we expect in this game, but if you want to save some salary and believe the rain won’t be as bad as everyone is making it out to be, then squeezing Jones in there might be a decent value play.

Dart-Throw DFS Bargains

Ty Johnson, RB New York Jets

We’ve seen him weaved into the ground game before, so if Knight’s ankle isn’t 100-percent, Johnson will definitely share in the workload with Michael Carter.

C.J. Uzomah, TE New York Jets

Should last week’s craziness ensue again, maybe Uzomah gets more targets this week from Wilson. If you’re playing multiple lineups, get a share of Uzomah in one and Conklin in the other.

Jamal Agnew, WR Jacksonville Jaguars

He’s their primary gadget guy so look for some gimmicky stuff in this game if it gets sloppy. He should also see a couple of targets in the short-passing game, so keep him in mind.

For additional fantasy football insights and NFL Week 15 best bets, check out the latest episode of the Cash It podcast with Howard Bender and Adam Ronis:

 

 

 

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