The door closes on NFL Week 7 DFS with the New England Patriots hosting the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. The Patriots welcome back starting quarterback Mac Jones as well as running back Damien Harris while the Bears are looking to build off some of the momentum they’ve had with the development of their franchise quarterback Justin Fields. However, with the weather expected to be a factor, this could be a wet, sloppy game and the expected game total of 40 does not instill much confidence in a whole lot of scoring. But as we all know, when it comes to a DFS Showdown slate, it doesn’t matter how much scoring there is, just as long as we have the right players in our lineups. 

Now before we begin, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

 

 

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -8

O/U: 40

Weather: Expected showers with temperatures in the high 50s w/ winds blowing NE at 2 mph

Notable Injuries:

Chicago Bears

  • none

New England Patriots

2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings

Chicago Bears

  • vs Pass: 14th 
  • vs Run: 27th 

New England Patriots

  • vs Pass: 6th 
  • vs Run: 26th 

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

MVP/Captain

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE – He’s still the leader of this backfield as he’s been the snap leader throughout this season, even before his backfield partner got hurt. His carries may be reduced now that he’s returning to a time-share but we’re looking at quality over quantity now and against the Bears, who allow the second-most rushing yards per game (163.0) and have given up nine rushing touchdowns on the year, Stevenson should be able to break through for some chunk yardage. He also sees more passes out of the backfield so he can add a few extra fantasy points for you that way as well. 

Patriots D/ST – The defense is what has been killing it for the Patriots over these last two games as they have allowed just 15 total points in two weeks and rank fourth in the NFL with 12 takeaways. They also have 17 sacks on the season and considering this is Bill Belichick against an inexperienced quarterback and an inexperienced head coach, things could get ugly for the Bears in a hurry.

David Montgomery, RB CHI – If there is a weakness in this Patriots defense, it’s against the run and Montgomery could find himself used a little more than usual due to that fact. They have only allowed two rushing touchdowns on the year, but they do allow almost 120 rushing yards per game. They also rank 28th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, so look for the Bears to try and attack them that way should the weather keep the field a little wet and sloppy. 

Mid-Tier DFS Value Plays

Damien Harris, RB NE – He’s made his way back from a hamstring issue that kept him off the field last week and most of the week before, but after logging full practices over the past several days, Harris is ready to get back into the swing of things. Prior to the injury, he was averaging 13 carries per game and had found the end zone in three-straight. He should be ready to carry the same load tonight and should be able to handle a slick field in a game we expect to see some showers. Harris usually handles the short-yardage work, including the goal-line carries, so his chances of punching one in seem pretty good.

Mac Jones, QB NE – Though he is still listed as questionable due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered back in Week 4, Jones is expected to start after logging limited practices Thursday through Saturday. The weather isn’t expected to be great which will likely limit how much throwing he does, not to mention the Bears are much more vulnerable against the run anyway.  Still he should be able to play an efficient game and reconnect with some of his receivers when the opportunity presents itself. Should the Patriots decide the weather puts Jones at too much of a risk, Bailey Zappe will step in again and rates very similarly.

Justin Fields, QB CHI – We saw some really nice growth from Fields during the last two weeks and he started to look a little more comfortable getting the ball into the hands of his receivers. But everyone knows Belichick lives rent-free in the heads of every young quarterback and the mad genius is gong to make it extremely difficult for him. But given Fields’ ability to run with the ball, his fantasy floor is raised just a bit and if he can be even a little productive offensively, then that plus the rushing totals could present a decent value. 

Jakobi Meyers, WR NE – He’s your typical Patriots top target working mostly out of the slot and seeing a boatload of targets. He’ll see a lot of Kyler Gordon in coverage which certainly tips the scales in favor of Meyers, so look for him to get peppered with targets once Jones works himself into a rhythm. The weather may have some effect on the passing game, but considering the majority of his work comes in the form of short, quick timing-routes, he should still be active enough to return proper value.

Equanimeous St. Brown, WR CHI – Not only is cornerback Jalen Mills banged up, but he is also at a physical disadvantage against St. Brown who has slotted in nicely as the Bears No. 2 receiver. The targets haven’t been abundant, but considering where the Bears may have even the slightest advantage, the hope is Matt Eberflus will have Fields looking for this coverage mismatch as much as he can.

Khalil Herbert, RB CHI – He’s earned a share of the carries, though some people seem to be elevating him into a full time-share with Montgomery. A 50/50 split seems unlikely, but Herbert has been given enough touches inside the green zone to make him relevant for a Showdown lineup. He just needs to work on his power and keep those legs churning in short-yardage situations.

Bears D/ST – If the game is going to be wet and sloppy and the Patriots are bringing back a potentially rusty Mac Jones and Damien Harris, perhaps the Bears defense can capitalize on a few turnovers. We expect the scoring to be down anyway, so a few sacks and fumbles could be the winner here.

DeVante Parker, WR NE – It’s a but of a tough match-up for Parker who is expected to see a lot of Jaylon Johnson in coverage, but the Bears do rank 15th in DVOA against the opposition’s X-receiver. The targets have been up-and-down based on the match-ups, so don’t expect anything huge, but he could be effective if Jones finds a groove.

Kendrick Bourne, WR NE – Bourne is questionable still with a toe issue so you’ll have to check on his status before game time. You can always expect a small handful of targets when he is out there and he does get looks inside the red zone, so if you’re looking to get a little different with your lineup, this might be an avenue to explore.

Tyquan Thornton, WR NE – He’s everyone’s darling in the seasonal world, so expect a fair amount of ownership. Thornton hauled in a pair of touchdowns last week, but before you start salivating at the possibilities, understand the targets could be extremely inconsistent should the Patriots have all their receivers available for the game. His a little better than a dart-throw, but again, expect a relatively high ownership from the masses.

Hunter Henry, TE NE – The Bears may not give up a ton of fantasy points to the tight end, but they do rank 19th in DVOA against the position. Henry gets a few targets per game and has found some nice open space at times. With the weather, the passing game should be shortened up plenty which could put the ball in Henry’s hands if the Bears continue to struggle in coverage.

Darnell Mooney, WR CHI – He really blossomed last week, enough to give his fantasy owners hope, however, in DFS, it’s likely to be a different story this week. The Patriots cover the opposing No. 1 receiver well and Belichick always schemes to take away the top weapons. Mooney would be more of a contrarian pick for us, though the general public may buy into his targets from last week.

Dante Pettis, WR CHI – His target share has crept up over the last couple of weeks and we saw him catch a nice, long touchdown pass from Fields last week. The passing game may be shortened up due to the weather, but Pettis, who typically works out of the slot, could see some decent targets underneath in traffic. 

Cole Kmet, TE CHI – The Patriots rank fifth in DVOA against the tight end, but they do allow an average of 42.1 receiving yards per game to them. Kmet is a big-bodied target who Fields looks for when he needs to move the chains. The hope is that he also gets a look or two if/when the Bears find themselves inside the red zone.

Dart Throw DFS Bargains

Ryan Griffin, TE CHI – We’ve seen Griffin get the occasional red zone look, so with the scoring in this game expected to be down, he becomes a nice contrarian play to all those Kmet-truthers out there.

Nelson Agholor, WR NE – He remains questionable for tonight’s game so keep an eye on the inactives once they are announced. If he plays, he’s always good for a few sideline routes and if the rain holds off at any point, he’s the guy the Pats like to send downfield for all the longs touchdown chances.