Week 13 of the NFL season is here and it kicks off with a matchup between two AFC East divisional foes in the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots for your NFL DFS Showdown matchup. A battle of two of the leagues top defenses but a mismatch when it comes to talent on the offensive side of the football. That said, the Bills will be without top pass rusher Von Miller in this game which could make life a little easier for Patriots QB Mac Jones who is coming off his best passing performance of his career which saw him throw for 380 yards and two touchdowns on Thanksgiving in a loss to the Vikings. The battle of a Josh Allen led offense against a Bill Belichick defense will be a fun one to watch tonight. 

 

 

Now before we begin, for those who are new to the process, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Spread: New England Patriots +3.5

O/U: 43.5

Weather: Clear Skies, 33 degrees, 6 MPH Wind

Notable Injuries:

Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots

2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings

Buffalo Bills

  • vs Pass: 7th 
  • vs Run: 3rd

New England Patriots

  • vs Pass: 3rd
  • vs Run: 7th 

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

MVP/Captain

Josh Allen, QB Buffalo Bills

The Patriots defense has been one of the leagues best this season but their biggest area of weakness this year has come against the mobile QB. Both Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields gave this defense fits with their ability to extend plays and drives with their legs. Allen is a LETHAL combination of arm talent and rushing upside. 

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB New England Patriots

While the Bills have a strong run defense we know the Patriots game plan here is to grind out the clock and utilizing their breakout start running back in Stevenson. With Damien Harris already ruled out you can expect the full workload to go to Stevenson who not only has been an elite rusher this season but also is one pace for nearly 80 receptions this season as well. That dual threat ability provides a stable floor and great upside in DFS.

Nick Folk, K New England Patriots

Before you ask what kind of drugs I'm on today hear me out. Over the past four weeks Folk has made 14 field goals. He has four or more field goals in three of those four weeks and has 16 field goal attempts during those games. He has been perfect in three of those four games. The one poor kicking game came against the Jets where there was a ton of wind. Tonight, there is no wind. The Patriots offense is one of the leagues worst when it comes to actually scoring touchdowns but they do move the football and Bill Belichick is not really of the "new school' approach when it comes to going for it on 4th down. He is an old coach that likes to take his points. If Folk goes out there and kicks another 3-4 field goals at 40+ yards each in your MVP/Cpt spot we could be looking at 20+ fantasy points from one of the cheapest plays on the slate.

Stefon Diggs, WR Buffalo Bills

The Patriots have actually done a pretty good job with Diggs but we saw last week Justin Jefferson torch this defense and if Jonathan Jones and Jack Jones are asked to cover Diggs in man coverage there is definitely going to be spots where Diggs makes some big plays. When the Bills get in the red zone he is a real threat and that can pay off big in DFS.

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays

Devin Singletary, RB Buffalo Bills

Singletary has been the lead back for the Bills this season and finds himself on pace for nearly 50 receptions this season as well. In PPR formats his ability to contribute in all aspects of the offense is great for his fantasy upside. We also love the recent  touchdown production with Singletary having three rushing TD's over the past three weeks. 

Jakobi Meyers, WR New England Patriots

Meyers is questionable to play tonight but expectations are that he will suit up. He is the top option in this Patriots offense for Mac Jones and while he isn't a game breaker he does enough in PPR to be a valuable asset in your DFS lineups. 

DeVante Parker, WR New England Patriots

Parker has come up with some big plays this season for New England as he and Mac Jones have shown some good chemistry on the deep ball with Jones being one of the leagues more accurate passers and Parker once again being one of the leagues better contested catch wide receivers. You know the Patriots will take some shots down field tonight and he and Parker will have their opportunities. 

Gabe Davis, WR Buffalo Bills

Davis managed to find the end zone in both games he played against the Patriots last season and while the yardage wasn't really there the touchdowns are what matter. He is now a bigger part of the Bills offense this season and with New England doing their best to shut down Diggs tonight he should have his opportunities to make plays.

Tyler Bass, K Buffalo Bills

Bass has one of the bigger legs in football with a long of 56 yards on the season. He is 8-for-9 from 40+ and 2-of-3 from 50+ yards this season. With these divisional matchups we sometimes see the defenses rise up and that leads to extra field goal attempts. 

Dart-Throw DFS Bargains

Isaiah McKenzie, WR Buffalo Bills

McKenzie had the breakout game during Thanksgiving against the Lions, catching six of 10 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. In Week 16 against the Patriots last year McKenzie torched New England, catching 11 of 12 passes for 125 yards and a score. Josh Allen is not afraid to throw to his other receivers and his ability to extend plays gives time for McKenzie to get open.

Patriots & Bills D/ST

Both defensive units are certainly in play here tonight. We have a low game total and a close spread. Both defensive units rank among the leagues best in both run and pass DVOA. Josh Allen and Mac Jones have been prone to throwing interceptions this season and both teams have a good pass rush.

Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots

We saw Agholor have one of his best games as a member of the Patriots in Week 12 as he stepped up following some injuries to both Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker. Meyers is questionable to play tonight but even if active it seems like Agholor could be the guy to get the call in three wide receiver sets and if the Patriots are behind they will need to throw.

Dawson Knox & Hunter Henry, TE

Both tight ends are in tougher spots here tonight but can be used as dart throw play. The Patriots are actually a pretty good team against tight ends as long as safety Kyle Duggar is in the lineup as he will be here tonight. Likewise, the Bills have a really good tight end cover man as well but we did see Mac Jones go to Hunter Henry last week and Henry had a lot of success last season so it is possible that relationship is rounding back into form.

Looking for more fantasy football and NFL Week 13 betting tips? Check out the latest episode of Cash It with Howard Bender and Adam Ronis: