Monday Night Football serves up a two-game slate for the fourth time this season and we better get used to it because Santa’s delivering a couple more of these two-gamers down the stretch of the holiday season. 

 

 

 

The Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings kick things off at 8:00pm ET in Minneapolis and then at 8:30pm ET the Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders deliver an inter-conference matchup to close out the week. This Playbook is meant to preview the NFL DFS Showdown slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, but you can utilize both articles if playing the two-game slate. Let’s take a look at the Falcons vs. Raiders DFS picks!

NFL DFS Falcons vs. Raiders Monday Night Football Playbook

The visiting Atlanta Falcons have lost four straight games and even had their Bye week sandwiched in the middle of this unfortunate stretch. Atlanta needs to win this game to stay a game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC South lead because claiming a Wild Card ticket may be more difficult than just outright winning the division.

Perhaps no quarterback has had a rougher go of it lately than Kirk Cousins. During this four-game losing streak he hasn’t thrown a single touchdown and he’s tossed eight interceptions. The performance and decision making have been highly questionable. There have also been light rumblings of the team making a change at quarterback and going to rookie Michael Penix

It would take an absolute disaster for the Falcons to make such a drastic change at this point in the season. But things aren’t much better for the Las Vegas Raiders. At 2-11 the Raiders are out of playoff contention and they’ve lost nine straight games. Brock Bowers has been an absolute gem and he’s going to look like a star for years to come. But they’ve lost Maxx Crosby for the season, we don’t know who the quarterback is going to be tonight, and it looks like the Raiders will once again have another high draft pick in April with a new coaching staff.

This game may not excite us as much as the first game between the Bears and Vikings, but there’s money to be made on all slates available to us tonight. With that said, here are the Falcons vs. Raiders DFS picks for Monday Night Football!

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Raiders MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Falcons -5.5 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Falcons (-270)
    • Raiders (+220)
  • Game Total: Over 44.5 (-108) / Under 44.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Falcons -5.5 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Falcons (-250)
    • Raiders (+205)
  • Game Total: Over 44.5 (-110) / Under 44.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Falcons vs. Raiders MNF, December 16th

This game will be played in a controlled environment so there are no weather concerns for this matchup.

Falcons vs. Raiders Notable Injuries & Inactives

The visiting Atlanta Falcons have a rather clean injury report ahead of their Monday night matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. The defense will be without Troy Andersen while Ruke Orhorhoro is questionable. But for the most part the Falcons are looking relatively healthy for a game that is arguably a must win for them.

The Las Vegas Raiders aren’t as fortunate. Star defensive end, Maxx Crosby, is set to undergo season-ending surgery on his ankle. The Raiders defense isn’t very good, but Crosby has been a tremendous asset for them in recent seasons. Additionally, Aidan O’Connell is questionable with a knee injury after he didn’t practice at all last week. But the Raiders are aiming to give him every opportunity to play so his status likely won’t be known until 7:00pm ET.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 12/16

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $16,000

He’s probably the easiest play on the Showdown and two-game slate. He sees volume and he’s been outstanding with the ball in his hands lately. The Raiders are in the bottom half of the league defending the run and despite Rachaad White’s inefficiency, he still ran for 90 on them last week.

Bijan is basically matchup proof at this point. It doesn’t matter who he’s going against, he’s a volume hog. He’s seen at least 20 touches in six of his last seven games and in seven of his last eight games he’s gone for 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings. Robinson’s also very good protecting the ball. It’s one of the most underrated aspects of his game. Some running backs will fumble the ball, but the offense still recovers it, so those mishaps don’t stand out. But Robinson doesn’t have a single fumble on the year. Add that to his involvement in the passing game and touchdown equity and he makes for a smash play most weeks.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

Bowers had a very rare dud in Week 14 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Three catches for 49 yards will happen among the tight end position. And he didn’t find the end zone. Such is life sometimes. But the five targets he received? That number is well below what we’ve grown used to seeing.

Bowers saw 40(!) targets total in Weeks 11-13 and he has six games since Week 5 with double-digit targets. That’s the beauty of the Raiders offense; it’s very consolidated. The Falcons don’t do anything special defensively. However, they have blitzed more in their last two games and that’s accounted for 9 of their 19 sacks as a team on the year. But when facing pressure, we’ve seen any and all Vegas quarterbacks lean on the rookie tight end so this should be a nice bounce back game for Bowers. If Aidan O’Connell is unable to go for this game, then we may have to downgrade Bowers slightly.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $13,000

You’d think that for all the targets Drake London sees, he’d probably have a few spike weeks on his resume. Sadly, that hasn’t been the case for Atlanta’s star receiver. On the season, London is averaging 8.9 targets per game. But yet, he only has one game with more than 100 receiving yards and coincidentally enough that’s the only game he’s returned over 20 fantasy points on DraftKings.

London is okay after the catch but largely there have been some off target throws from Kirk Cousins this season. For example, London has 46 targets in his last four games. But he only has 25 receptions in that span. And he hasn’t scored since Week 9. So the box score and the fantasy numbers look good, but not great.

But this is still a player seeing immense volume and this is a great matchup for him. The Raiders utilize man coverage ninth most in the NFL and London touts a 38% target share against man coverage with 2.68 YPRR. I will continue to lean into this heavy volume and hope it’s a huge game for London.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $12,000

As is usually the case when the Raiders are on a Showdown slate, I normally include just Bowers and Meyers in the MVP/Captain section. When we speak of consolidated offenses, the Raiders definitely rank among the most consolidated. Meyers has seen double-digit targets in four of his last five games including 36 total over his last three contests.

Similar to Bowers, we downgrade him slightly if O’Connell is ruled out. But Meyers has only found the end zone twice this year so that limits his ceiling to an extent. Fortunately, it’s a good matchup for Meyers. Entering Week 15, only the Baltimore Ravens gave up more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Atlanta Falcons. The Dirty Birds give up the sixth-most receiving yards and fourth-most receptions to opposing wide receivers and Meyers has some of the most reliable hands in the NFL so long as the throw is on target.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,000

It can’t be overstated just how bad Cousins has been. After dropping their first game of the season to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Falcons won six of their next eight games. And now they’ve lost four straight games and it’s easy to put the blame on Cousins.

In that four-game stretch, he has eight interceptions and no touchdowns. He’s also fumbled four times but hasn’t lost any (thankfully). Now it is worth mentioning, that despite the poor decision making, he does have two 300-yard bonuses on DraftKings in his last four games. But if you take those away we’re looking at four straight games returning under 12 fantasy points. It’s been ugly to say the least.

But the matchup cannot possibly get any better. Sure, it’s on the road. But the Raiders don’t pose much of a threat on defense and it’s a controlled environment. Without Maxx Crosby, perhaps Cousins has more time in the pocket to not be completely terrible for our NFL DFS contests Monday night.

Aidan O’Connell, QB, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $5,000

Desmond Ridder, QB, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $11,500

I don’t have much to go off of with either but they’re worth mentioning so I can hopefully avoid questions in Discord leading up to this game. FanDuel dropped the ball on AOC’s price. They assumed he’d be out for their single-game slate and thus priced him at $5,000. They did the same thing on Black Friday against the Kansas City Chiefs. They didn’t assume he would start, priced him at $5K, and then he did get the start and had a great game.

Now AOC has not practiced all week, but it sounds like the Raiders want to give him every chance to test out the knee before making a determination. If he’s active and starts, then he’s almost a lock on FanDuel and he’s absolutely worth playing on DraftKings.

If O’Connell can’t go then we begrudgingly pivot to Desmond Ridder. I don’t love Ridder. He’s not accurate down the field and a lot of his work will be in short yardage situations. He wasn’t exactly feeding Brock Bowers last week. But he completed 12-of-18 pass attempts but for just over 100 yards. There is a revenge game narrative as Ridder started his career with the Atlanta Falcons but that also means this defense is aware of his weaknesses.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $10,500

Mooney is a slightly cheaper version of Drake London. Mooney won’t see the volume of London, but he has arguably more big play upside as evidenced by last week’s performance of six catches on seven targets for 142 yards.

London also provides a safer floor because Mooney has some bust potential to his game. In Weeks 11 and 13 (Atlanta was off during Week 12), Mooney caught just 5-of-10 targets for 47 yards between those two games.

But similar to London, Mooney performs very well against man coverage. Mooney sees a 25% TPRR and 2.94 YPRR so if he gets behind the Vegas secondary, he can definitely make some noise and break the slate with a big catch-and-run.

Sincere McCormick, RB, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $10,000

I won’t rule out some shares to Alexander Mattison who is only $1,000 cheaper for the DraftKings Showdown slate. However, it’s become quite clear who the RB1 in Vegas is. McCormick is going to get the run to finish out the season as the Raiders try to see what they have with some of their younger players.

McCormick’s sample size is limited as he’s really only played in three games. But in those three games from Weeks 12-14 he has 32 carries and he’s averaging 5.5 yards per carry. For a little extra gravy, he also has back-to-back games with two receptions.

The Falcons have been better of late against the run, but on the year they still allow about 120 rushing yards per game and this is a player priced in the mid-range who has 31 touches in his last two contests.

Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $8,500

Nothing like that classic year seven breakout at the wide receiver position. McCloud had a nice start to the year, then cooled off for a bit, and has put himself back on the scene the last two weeks with 95 and 98 receiving yards respectively in his last two contests.

As bad as Cousins has been, there’s been enough volume to go around and McCloud has maintained relevancy and he gets additional work on special teams as a returner so there’s some added correlation if you choose to play him with the Falcons D/ST.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

I had plans to start the Pitts section off with “Oh how the mighty have fallen,” but it doesn’t really apply to Pitts because to have been mighty and have fallen, that means he must have been at the top of his game once, right?

I’m a Pitts apologist/truther. But this year has been horrendous. This had to be the year he got it together after years of poor quarterback play. And sure, Cousins has been terrible, but yet McCloud and Mooney are getting more targets on the year than Pitts.

In four of his last five games, Pitts has either one catch or none at all. The output is simply dreadful. And that’s surprising because from Weeks 5-8, he looked like a reliable starter. He had 21 receptions on 27 targets with at least 65 receiving yards in each game.

Now this is DFS after all. And he’s wildly affordable. One can make the argument that part of the team’s struggles over the last four games may be in part because they aren’t getting Pitts involved. But Pitts is also affordable, and the Raiders struggle to defend almost every position. So if you like rolling the dice you can potentially chase a ceiling game from Pitts but don’t be surprised if he delivers his fourth straight dud Monday night.

Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $9,500

It would take an absolute onslaught by the Falcons for Allgeier to likely make a mark. But there’s a possibility he touches the ball more than Pitts in this game. And if the Falcons do happen to blow this team out, then Allgeier can come into play late in the game.

And even if he doesn’t get huge volume late, he still has at least nine touches in three of his last four games. Even last week he had 63 yards on nine carries and found the end zone. They do manage to give Bijan Robinson plenty of rest which gives Allgeier some work, and he’s been pretty efficient when the ball has been in his hands.

Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

Tucker will probably draw the most ownership of any value play in this game and for the two-game slate for that matter. He’s very cheap and has upside. Am I going to play many shares of the Raiders D/ST? Probably not. But on two-game slates you can’t shy away from playing D/ST’s against your stacks.

Tucker also gets snaps and routes. With DJ Turner hitting IR for Vegas, Tucker’s role is safe as the wide receiver room is a bit thin at the moment. But we saw this kid’s upside in Week 13 when he took his only target to the house for a 58-yard touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. He had a quiet performance in Week 14 but if AOC is the starting quarterback for the Raiders, then a trailing game script with O’Connell under center does benefit Tucker’s fantasy prospects.

Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

I don’t want to fall into the trap of chasing his production from last week. I don’t view it as a sign of things to come but from Weeks 11-13 he had just four receptions on seven targets for 21 yards. And then in Week 14 he popped for seven catches on nine targets for 63 yards. Mayer was a highly touted tight end in his draft class, but the Raiders also drafted Brock Bowers to be their guy and that’s been the case for most of this season.

I’d say it’s fine to get some exposure whether playing the Showdown slate or the two-game slate. But personally, if ownership is flocking to Mayer at the discounted price, I’m going to try and do what I can to get to Tucker and possibly correlate the play with the Raiders D/ST if I need to punt at that position.

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Raiders DFS Player Pool, 12/16

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-