We close out Sunday’s Week 14 slate with an AFC West matchup featuring the Los Angeles Chargers continuing their rather tedious travel schedule as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers are coming off a close win over the Atlanta Falcons largely due to their defense playing incredibly well. Meanwhile the Chiefs got another close win over the Las Vegas Raiders following their Black Friday Football game in Week 13. A win would lock up the AFC West for the Chiefs, but the Chargers will be willing to put up a fight to try and keep pace in the division while maintaining their projected AFC playoff seeding. Here are Sunday’s Chargers vs. Chiefs DFS picks for Sunday Night Football!

 

 

 

Chargers vs. Chiefs DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 12/8

The Los Angeles Chargers continue their brief tour across the country. In Week 12, they hosted the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football and took the loss. Last week, on a short week, they went across the country and got the victory against the Atlanta Falcons. And they had to play in the early window during the chaotic Thanksgiving week. And now they play in primetime in Kansas City. This team is certainly logging some mileage.

The Chargers at least come into this matchup having won five of their last six games, the lone loss being to the Ravens. The defense has played rather well this deep into the season and injuries haven’t played too much of a role, like they normally do with the L.A. Chargers. Sure, they do have arguably their best receiving option questionable heading into this game. But compared to previous seasons this season has been more fortunate with Jim Harbaugh running the show.

The Kansas City Chiefs continue to operate as an efficient machine. Their lone loss on the year was to the Buffalo Bills. However, it’s been well documented how they’re flirting with disaster most weeks. They’ve covered the spread just twice all year. But at the end of the day, this team finds a way to win games, just like they did against the Denver Broncos, and just like they did last week against the Las Vegas Raiders.

With Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, this team always has a pulse. They have a comfortable lead on the AFC West. However, they can’t really afford to lose another game because Buffalo holds the tiebreaker over them in the event both teams finish with the same record atop the AFC. With the Chiefs getting healthy at the right time, they look poised for another deep playoff run but the Chargers are eager to avenge their loss from earlier this season.

 

 

 

Chargers vs. Chiefs SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -4 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Chargers (+180)
    • Chiefs (-218)
  • Game Total: Over 43 (-108) / Under 43 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Chargers (+172)
    • Chiefs (-205)
  • Game Total: Over 42.5 (-115) / Under 42.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Chargers vs Chiefs SNF, December 8th

Despite it being December and Kansas City being in the Midwest, the weather doesn’t look too bad. There won’t be a significant weather edge for the Chiefs. Temperatures will be in the low 50’s around kickoff with partly cloudy skies. Winds should remain under 10 miles per hour throughout the game.

 

Chargers vs Chiefs Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 14

The Los Angeles Chargers are likely to be missing Denzel Perryman for this matchup. He’s doubtful with a groin injury. The Chargers also listed Tony Jefferson and Junior Colson as questionable for this matchup as well. The big injury to monitor for this game will be regarding Ladd McConkey. He’s emerged as the WR1 in this offense, but he is dealing with injuries to his knee and shoulder after taking a beating in last week’s game in Atlanta. The rookie wideout was limited in practice all week and does feel like a true game time decision for our SNF DFS picks.

By comparison, the Chiefs are much healthier heading into this game. As of Saturday, the only player with an injury designation ahead of this matchup is Mecole Hardman who is questionable with a knee injury.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $15,000

Last week was awful for Herbert. The NFL DFS Week 13 D/ST Coach tried to warn you all of the potential struggles for the Chargers. Alas, they got the win but the only player who had a productive day for fantasy football was the next player we’ll get to in this article.

You have to put it in the past. This is a big game. These two teams met back in Week 4 when Los Angeles was more committed to the run. Remember those days? J.K. Dobbins had those two big games to start the year. Then the efficiency started to drop. Over time the Bolts have started to lean more on the aerial attack. And Herbert has even started to run the ball more on his own.

He’s been very effective and he’s thrown just one interception all season long. So given how tough it’ll be to run the ball on this Chiefs defense, I think Herbert takes control and gets the passing attack going and he’s showing he’s comfortable with scrambling if he needs to. I think a comparable stat line to what he did against the Cincinnati Bengals (25+ fantasy points) is within reach in this matchup.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $13,500

He’s currently listed as a true game time decision so it’s about 50/50 that he plays. He’s dealing with two separate injuries but if he suits up, I don’t think it’s necessarily to use him as a decoy. He’s easily Justin Herbert’s favorite, and most reliable target.

Per Fantasy Points Data, he ranks fourth in average separation score over the past month. He’s also coming off a game against the Atlanta Falcons where he caught 9-of-12 targets for 117 yards. Most of that production was done in the first half, but he took a heavy beating from the Falcons.

These two teams met earlier in the year and it was one of the few times McConkey managed to find the end zone. But we’ve seen his role expand and the target share has grown immensely since then. If he’s active I’m absolutely getting exposure to him at Captain on this slate.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

Kelce has cooled off in recent weeks, but he still commands a large portion of the targets in the passing game. From Weeks 8-10 he had 32 catches on 40 targets for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns and he averaged about 23 fantasy points per game in PPR formats in that span.

However, in his last three games he’s cooled off a bit to the tune of 15 receptions on 25 targets for 138 yards and no touchdowns. He’s still on the field plenty and he has the rapport and chemistry with Mahomes. But at his age, he doesn’t gain as much separation, he is also slower, and can’t do much after the catch if the pass isn’t leading him.

I hate to label him as touchdown dependent but that is the nature of his position after all. But at the end of the day, in five of his last six games he has at least six receptions for 60 receiving yards. That’s a good floor and in a primetime matchup he can be optimal at Captain if he delivers that line along with a touchdown.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $16,000

At the end of the day, he’s still Patrick Mahomes. He’s not lighting it up as we’ve seen in previous seasons. He’s still offering a very good floor so I’m happy to play him in the flex as a correlation play with any of his pass catchers at MVP/Captain.

Mahomes has only thrown for 300+ yards twice all year, and the second instance came last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Even against these Chargers back in Week 4, he totaled just 245 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception for 14 fantasy points. 

Only Joe Burrow has been able to throw for over 250 yards on this Chargers defense this year. This secondary is legitimate, and the defense does generate decent pressure. Mahomes is still great but this does feel like another ho-hum kind of week where he gets between 16-18 fantasy points. That’s fine as a flex play but he needs to channel his previous MVP seasons to really give us that high ceiling we haven’t seen this year.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

I really like Pacheco for this slate. I teetered with listing him in the top section. But based on last week’s usage I figured he’d be safer in the next section. Truthfully, I’ll have some lineups with him at Captain. There are so many bad matchups for so many players in this game. But you can run on the Chargers as we’ve seen so that bodes well for Pacheco and. Kareem Hunt.

In nine of their last 10 games the Chargers have allowed opposing offenses to run for over 100 yards. Moreover, the Bolts can give up production to receiving running backs. I’m optimistic that with a couple extra days off, Pacheco is feeling good enough to take on a larger role and fully resume the RB1 duties. If that’s the case, and if exposure is low, I’ll take the risk and play him at Captain for some lineups. But it’s not a slam dunk despite the great opportunity in this game.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

I really like this price tag for Hopkins. The role and snaps are odd, to say the least. But when he’s at least on the field he’s seeing targets. Last week he turned nine receptions into 90 yards on nine targets. He likely gets the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings if he makes one or two receptions, but the snaps and routes went up after he played less than 50% of the offensive snaps in Week 12.

Do I think there’s some consideration for MVP/Captain exposure? Sure, but not a ton because it’ll be well documented several times in this article that this defense is tough to throw on. But Hopkins does so much well even at his age, including drawing two big defensive pass interference calls against the Raiders. We know what the ceiling is for Hopkins if he can find the end zone in this matchup and hopefully the target share is something that can grow organically. 

If you need a little salary relief, you can look to Xavier Worthy as well who is only $7,000 on DraftKings and just $9,500 on FanDuel. He’s averaging at least six targets per game over his last three games and rarely comes off the field.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Will Dissly, TE, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $7,000

Dissly’s coming off a bad game, but so are most of the Chargers. If McConkey is ruled out, then I would play Dissly in almost all my lineups and possibly a little at MVP/Captain as well. 

Dissly saw increased usage from Weeks 7-12 with 37 targets over that six-game sample size. Dissly does line up in-line but he’s also registered a few reps in the slot. And if McConkey is out they probably feature him even more out of the slot so it’s a spot I’d want to take advantage of.

Casual DFS players are going to like the fact that the Chiefs look bad against the tight end position, as evidenced by the green “31st” next to Dissly’s name where the opponent rank is listed. I don’t necessarily think we put a ton of stock into this. The Chiefs did allow some big games to Isaiah Likely, George Kittle, Cade Otton, and Brock Bowers. If you think Dissly’s in that tier then play him with some confidence. I’ll temper expectations for now until we get news on McConkey. If you need an absolute punt under $1,000 on DraftKings you can also give consideration to Tucker Fisk and hope that he catches one or two passes.

Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

Noah Gray basically did what we thought he would do in Week 12. He caught four-of-six targets for 58 yards. But he didn’t find the end zone. The tight end position is always a bit dependent on touchdowns. After he scored four in Weeks 11 and 12, expectations were high.

But just because he didn’t find the end zone, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that he had four catches for the third straight game. And the team is still having him run more routes and they’re giving him more snaps. Overall, they’ve adapted more 12 personnel packages while DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster basically share one job. Gray seems a bit mis-priced once again. Tough matchup? Yeah, the Chargers defend the tight end position well. But he’s been getting more separation than Travis Kelce of late so this is another spot where he should be utilized.

Justin Watson, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

The good news with Watson is that he’s constantly on the field. The guy sees plenty of snaps and routes. Targets? Not so much. In Week 13 he did hit pay dirt as he found the end zone for the first time all year. Mahomes does take about one or two deep shots to Watson per game but he does have some minimal involvement in the offense.

The ceiling isn’t huge for Watson. He would need a big catch and run to really break the slate. But just because it hasn’t happened so far this year doesn’t mean it can’t happen Sunday night. I wish he was cheaper, but for a receiver who is regularly running routes, I can handle playing him.

Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

Vidal is a trendy name given the Chargers running back room. The general belief is that Gus Edwards operates as the RB1 with J.K. Dobbins sidelined due to injury. However, Gus has looked terrible overall when the ball has been in his hands. He lacks explosiveness and is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry on 69 carries this season.

The Chiefs are very difficult to run on. On the year, the Chiefs are allowing less than 90 rushing yards per game so if I’m going to target a running back on the Chargers, I’ll try to find some savings. Vidal hasn’t looked particularly explosive either and we can’t rule out the possibility that maybe Hassan Haskins gets the hot hand. Plus there’s a realistic possibility that Justin Herbert is L.A.’s leading rusher by the end of the night anyway.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

If I were a betting man, I’d take the over in this game. Both teams feature offenses that can put up points. Not to mention the Chiefs have about two extra days of rest on the Bolts for this game and they will have their full arsenal of players. So, I do like this game to feature plenty of offense.

However, I also don’t shy away from what Vegas is necessarily selling us. The total is in the low 40’s so I do have some interest in playing these D/ST’s, especially at their price tags. The Chiefs have a tendency to play to the level of their opponents. They’ve managed to cover the spread just twice all year. They were 13-point favorites against the Raiders and came dangerously close to losing that game. If Ladd McConkey is forced to sit this one out, then we feel very good about the Chiefs D/ST against the Chargers offense without their best receiver and their best running back. And remember, the Chargers have had a lot of travel in a short window over the last couple weeks.

The Chargers also have a defense that has upside. Even if simply looking at their DraftKings profile game log, they’ve returned 11+ fantasy points in five games this year. In their last six games they have seven interceptions and zero fumble recoveries. Adding to the note on their interceptions, all seven came in two games. So they aren’t consistently forcing turnovers and they’re easy to run on. But they do have an above average secondary that’s allowed just one team to throw for over 250 passing yards.

Per usual, the kickers are live in this game especially when attached to two offenses like the Chargers and Chiefs. Kickers typically comes with less ownership than the D/ST’s because they’ve been priced up this year. In his last four games, Cameron Dicker, has returned 12, 16, 12, and 9 fantasy points. He’s gone 10-for-10 on FGA’s in that sample size with six of his attempts coming from 40+ yards out. 

Matthew Wright has filled in admirably for the Chiefs when called upon. He made four-of-five field goals in Week 13 against Vegas for 14 fantasy points. He went three-for-four and put up 13 fantasy points back in Week 6 against Seattle. This week he was once again signed off the team’s practice squad so as long as the Chiefs are putting him in position to make field goals, he’s in play to potentially get double-digit fantasy points.

 

 

 

Chargers vs. Chiefs DFS Player Pool: SNF, 12/8

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