We kick off Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season with another inter-conference matchup between two teams that are truly struggling to find their identity. Both the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints are coming off horrendous performances in Week 6 as they both took a loss and have just a short week of preparation. They’ll both be playing rookie quarterbacks in this matchup and whoever loses may just see their playoff hopes go up in smoke. Let’s take a look at our favorite Broncos vs. Saints DFS picks as part of the latest Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown Playbook!

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Saints DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 10/17

These two teams are flat out limping into this game. Whoever comes away with the win in this greasy matchup should absolutely parade down to Bourbon Street and consume some adult beverages and maybe try to find the baby in a king cake.

We’ll start with the visiting Denver Broncos. The Broncos aren’t in bad shape by any means, but they had their three-game winning streak snapped last week in a crappy performance against the Los Angeles Chargers. They did pose a bit of a comeback as all 16 of their points came in the fourth quarter. However, it wasn’t enough to beat the Chargers. Rookie first-round pick, Bo Nix, has looked good at times and he’s shown he’s a capable runner. But there have definitely been growing pains in his rookie season especially when he’s seen arguing with his head coach on the sidelines.

New Orleans easily comes into this game in worse shape than Denver. For starters, they’ll once again go with Spencer Rattler as their starting quarterback. He actually looked okay in the first half of their Week 6 matchup. He completed 11 of his first 14 pass attempts but then finished 11-for-26. As someone who played him at $4,000 for the Sunday night main slate, I was content with the near 3.5X value.

But at the end of the day, the Saints have dropped four straight games and they’ll likely be without Derek Carr a few more weeks. The 91 points they scored their first two weeks seems to make sense now. They did that against the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys. Neither of those defenses can stop any opposing offense at the moment. The Saints offense is averaging just 17.25 points in their last four games and they were held scoreless in the second half last week.

So this game is by far the ugliest matchup we’ve seen for a Showdown slate so far in the season. Don’t hesitate to get a little weird with our Week 7 TNF DFS picks. Monitor how the betting lines are trending and keep an ear to the ground regarding injuries. With that said, here are the top Broncos vs. Saints DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Saints TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Broncos -2.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Broncos (-135)
    • Saints (+114)
  • Game Total: Over 37 (-110) / Under 37 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Broncos -2.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Broncos (-138)
    • Saints (+118)
  • Game Total: Over 36.5 (-115) / Under 36.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Broncos vs. Saints TNF, October 17th

We have no weather concerns for our Broncos vs. Saints DFS picks as this game will be played indoors in a controlled environment.

Broncos vs. Saints Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 7

Because this is a short week, and this article is being published Tuesday night, all we have to go off of are “estimated” injury reports from Monday, in addition to more legitimate reports released Tuesday afternoon.

On Tuesday’s injury report, the Saints listed about every single employee in the organization so we have a lot to dissect. We know Derek Carr won’t play in this game and both Rashid Shaheed (knee) and Chris Olave (concussion) didn’t practice. I would be surprised if either played Thursday night. Taysom Hill didn’t participate in the walkthrough portion of practice, but he was listed as a limited participant for Tuesday’s session.

The Broncos are a little healthier than the Saints heading into this matchup. However, they will be without Pat Surtain who is dealing with a concussion. That’s a huge blow to their defense as Surtain has shut down elite pass catchers all season long. Luckily, New Orleans will likely be without their two best receivers.

Update: As of Wednesday afternoon's most recent injury reports, the Saints have gone ahead and already ruled out Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Cesar Ruiz, and Peter Werner, but Taysom Hill is listed as Doubtful. The Broncos have only ruled out Pat Surtain and Alex Palczewski.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints - DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $16,000

If you can afford him, he’s probably the safest play on the board from a volume perspective. He should touch the ball at least 17 times, if not more. I use 17 as the benchmark since that’s been his floor in terms of volume in any game so far this season.

He has that coveted involvement in the passing game that is perfect for Showdown slates. He’s caught 28-of-36 targets through six games and he has 25 targets in his last three games. Plain and simple, he’s an easy option for quarterbacks to check down to and that’s especially true for rookie quarterbacks.

He’s coming off another game where he saw a 60% route participation rate so even though he has just two touchdowns in his last four games, he’s the safest play on the slate with arguably the highest ceiling. We also just saw J.K. Dobbins and Kimani Vidal find the end zone against this Denver defense last week so if you’re going to beat them, it’s likely at the running back position. He is dealing with a hand injury and was limited in practice, but at the same time, the Saints desperately need him to play in this game.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $15,000

Nix presents a very difficult price tag on FanDuel. But at the same time, we typically see quarterbacks frequently in the optimal build as the MVP on that provider. And there are reasons to play him at the top of our builds so let’s take a look for our TNF DFS picks.

Nix has limited turnovers of late and he has four games already this year with 25+ rushing yards. Since Week 3 he has seven total touchdowns (five passing, two rushing) and just one turnover. In three of those games, he’s returned 19+ fantasy points on DraftKings. When you consider the context of this slate: the low implied total and the injuries to certain skill position players, we can give him some consideration at the top of the line. Because let’s face it, we’re looking at some low scoring optimal lineups for this game.

The Saints have surrendered 300+ passing yards in back-to-back games. Do we expect Nix to do that? Probably not. But there’s rushing upside as well since the Denver running backs are tough to trust any given week.

Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $10,000

I was a little bummed that Hill was inactive last week because you could’ve stacked Spencer Rattler and Hill for a total of $8,000 on DraftKings last week. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be.

Hill has missed the last two games with multiple rib fractures. On Monday’s estimated injury report he was listed as a limited participant. That doesn’t mean he practiced. But it does mean if he were to have practiced it would’ve been in limited fashion. Tuesday was a limited session from Hill.

Given that the Saints are starting a rookie quarterback on a short week, and they’re beat up across the board at wide receiver, there’s room for Hill to get opportunities at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. At this rate, I wouldn’t put it past him to kick a field goal or two as the New Orleans Swiss Army Knife (I’m being facetious).

We do need to monitor his status as the week progresses. I’m not completely sold he plays in this game, but if he does we know he has the potential for multiple scores.

Update: As of the Wednesday injury report for the Saints, they are listing him as Doubtful for this game.

 

Denver Broncos D/ST – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $8,500

You know it’s an ugly slate when even I am willing to recommend a D/ST at Captain. In four of six games this year, the Broncos have returned double-digit fantasy points on DraftKings and very few teams blitz as often as the Denver Broncos.

Even last week when the Broncos gave up 23 points to the Los Angeles Chargers, they still collected three sacks, but didn’t force a turnover. There are also some things to like about this matchup as well.

The implied total is obviously low, but the Saints could very well be without Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee). Bake in the fact they’re going against a very inexperienced rookie quarterback behind a sub-par offensive line and we have a D/ST worth being overweight on at Captain for this slate. 

We will need sacks and turnovers, but Rattler did throw two picks and was sacked five times in Week 6 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Update: I’m going to leave the Broncos in this section because I think they still have some upside to force turnovers given their pass rush. However, with Pat Surtain out with a concussion, we do need to downgrade them a little bit.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $11,000

Sutton presents an interesting option for our Broncos vs. Saints DFS picks. Why? Well, the volume is certainly there, which we normally love. But the production isn’t consistent. For example, he doesn’t have a single game this year with 70 receiving yards. Can we rely on him to get the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings? Not really.

He has three games this year with 13+ fantasy points on DraftKings, but three games under 10 fantasy points. Despite the fact he has 47 targets in six games, he’s not exactly giving us a great return on investment.

We also have to consider the Marshon Lattimore treatment. Going into Week 6, Lattimore had been targeted just nine times on the season. Even last week when he shadowed Mike Evans on 21 snaps, zero targets went to Evans. So if Sutton is shadowed by Lattimore do we trust him in this spot? I feel bad not listing him as a Captain candidate, but even putting him in this section as a core play feels bold and potentially a spot we fade.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $11,500

Williams just missed out on being a Captain recommendation. I’m building 20 lineups for this slate and will likely have him in two or three builds at Captain for full transparency. But similar to Courtland Sutton, the opportunities that come his way are endearing, but the overall production leaves a lot to be desired.

Williams hasn’t found the end zone this year and is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. But he’s caught 20-of-26 targets. And yet, he has just one game all year with more than 12 fantasy points. But if you’re going to beat the Saints, it can be on the ground. 

The Buccaneers absolutely torched New Orleans with their running backs. Sean Tucker finished with 192 total yards and a pair of touchdowns while Bucky Irving added 105 total yards and a touchdown of his own. Kareem Hunt, who was just signed off the street by Kansas City, collected over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown against New Orleans. He’s definitely worthy of some exposure at Captain, but perhaps consider just matching the field in that regard.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Spencer Rattler, QB, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $14,500

Rattler is a better “mid-tier” play on DraftKings. On FanDuel he’s the third-most expensive play on the board. He flashed upside in the first half of Sunday’s game against Tampa Bay, but the wheels came off in the second half. All in all, he was sacked five times. How do we expect him to do against Denver’s pass rush in a game where he may not have his two best receivers?

We should expect the Saints to take a heavy approach on the ground. Rattler did attempt 40 passes last week but completed just 22 of them with two interceptions. On a short week without weapons, can they really trust him to win this game?

Rattler did collect 27 rushing yards last week and looked capable of playing at this level at times. But he’s still very raw and is lacking weapons in this matchup. 

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $8,000

DraftKings got smart and juiced his price tag even though he’s done very little this year. But over his last three games he’s caught 10-of-11 targets but hasn’t scored since Week 1.

Johnson probably shouldn’t be in the price range but assuming Olave and Shaheed are inactive for this game, he’s likely due for more work. But at the same time, there’s an inexperienced rookie quarterback distributing the ball so this isn’t a slam dunk by any means. But he did catch all three targets for 48 yards against Tampa Bay last week.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Devaughn Vele, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $7,000

Assuming he’s active for this game he should be on our radar. In Week 1 he caught all eight of his targets for a whopping 39 yads and then he was inactive for the next four games. Then last week he was made available and caught four-of-six targets for 78 yards. Needless to say, he’s made the most of his opportunities.

I don’t love the price tag and I don’t believe there’s much touchdown equity for the 26-year-old rookie, but he has some rapport with Bo Nix. If Courtland Sutton is phased out by New Orleans then that’s a nice bump for the other pass catchers in this offense if Nix is allowed to throw the ball 30+ times.

Bub Means, WR, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $8,500

Another stiff price tag but one that might be easier to pay off. With the Saints possibly not having Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, we have opportunities opening up in the passing game for New Orleans. Means caught five-of-eight targets last week from Rattler and managed to find the end zone while grabbing a 70.8% route participation rate.

Mason Tipton, WR, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $6,500

If Tipton was the one to find the end zone last week, and not Means, he’s the one that would be priced up. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. Tipton ran just 43.8% of the routes last week, which pales in comparison to Means. But keep in mind, Shaheed got injured late in Sunday’s game and if he misses, that could help Tipton. Mason has managed to catch a pass in four straight games so he’s familiar with the offense at least and costs 40% of what Means will run you.

Lucas Krull, TE, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $1,000 | FanDuel: $5,000

Funny enough, this is actually a revenge game for both Krull and Adam Trautman. We’ll run with Krull who actually appeared in Andrew Cooper’s NFL DFS Week 6 TE Coach as a bit of a dart throw. Krull has only appeared in the team’s last two games and has caught just three receptions on five targets for a grand total of 16 yards. However, I will add that in Week 6 he did boast a 73% route participation rate and we should not sleep on a player running that many routes at such a cheap cost.

Trautman is probably the more recognizable name and he’s also affordable, but if you want my opinion, I’d rather pay for Krull given that he was more involved running routes in Week 6 and he could very well be the best tight end option in Denver. Sorry, Greg Dulcich.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

At the top of the article, we mentioned the Denver Broncos as a potential Captain candidate. Obviously, I’m less bullish on them with the news that Pat Surtain will be out with a concussion. But the New Orleans offensive line can be beat and Denver still has a good pass rush. So while I don’t love Denver’s ceiling as much, this could be an ugly game and I’ll still take some shots on them at Captain.

I don’t love paying up for the Saints D/ST as much, but I will at least admit they have upside and a defensive back that can take away Courtland Sutton. They also force turnovers that have kept them afloat. They have 12 takeaways in six games along with 15 sacks. My concern is that they’ve allowed 460+ yards in three of their last four games, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran up 45 points on them last week. I don’t see that kind of offensive onslaught from the Denver Broncos, but I will remind you Bo Nix has been better at protecting the football. Both defenses are very playable given the low implied total for this game.

I don’t really buy into revenge game narratives for kickers, but if that’s your cup of tea then Wil Lutz is your guy. Lutz kicked for New Orleans from 2016-2022 and he’s kicking from deep on most of his attempts for Denver this year. The Saints also have a nice bend, but don’t break defense that has stepped up in the red zone… most of the time. That obviously doesn’t apply to last week. But if you look back on some of their previous matchups, they allowed kickers like Brandon Aubrey, Younghoe Koo, and Harrison Butker to each attempt at least four field goals.

Blake Grupe can also work as a correlation play for any Saints player at the Captain spot. However, I don’t think his ceiling isn’t quite as high at Lutz’s.

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Saints DFS Player Pool: TNF, 10/17

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