As we head into Week 16 of the NFL season, the fantasy football playoffs are in full swing and league managers are really feeling the pressure as they scramble to set lineups featuring as many fantasy relevant running backs (RBs) whose potential snap counts, receiving targets, and carries give them the best chance to win their league’s championship. 

It's been a long and challenging season thus far. Some fantasy managers will be severely tested this week as they struggle to find a permanent replacement for a RB who was their number one overall pick and who’ll miss the rest of the fantasy football playoffs. 

As health issues and the effects of a long and grueling season  continue to force some teams to reshuffle their RB depth charts, there are several backfields that deserve our attention this week. Let’s dive in and analyze their recent and potential future RB usage and attempt to project how their RBs will be utilized as the season continues winding down.

 

Houston Texans

With Dameon Pierce suffering a season ending ankle injury in Week 14, Dare Ogunbowale, got the start at RB for the Texans in Week 15. Well, some may say that Ogunbowale never really got started. He had eight carries for just 14 yards (1.8 YPC). As the game wore on Royce Freeman, who was recently signed and promoted from the team’s practice squad, took over the lead role and played the majority of the team’s snaps from the RB position. In the last three quarters of the game Freeman out carried Ogunbowale by an 11 to two margin and averaged 4.6 YPC. Rex Burkhead didn’t get a carry and instead was the team’s passing down back. He was targeted four times and had two receptions for 17 yards. Based on his Week 15 performance Freeman should get the start for the Texans in Week 16 but unfortunately, the Texans have one of the worst offensive lines in football and they face the Titans, who have given up the fifth fewest average fantasy points per game this season. Texans RBs have an easier matchup in Week 17 when they face the Jaguars. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco should still be considered the Chiefs’ primary back but with TDs in three straight games the gap between Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon appears to be narrowing every week. Pacheco was benched for much of the second quarter after losing a fumble in the Chiefs’ Week 15 matchup against the Texans and McKinnon was called upon to fill in as the team’s primary back. That allowed McKinnon to out snap Pacheco by a 48 to 27 margin. McKinnon also continued to get early down carries throughout the second half even though Pacheco was back in the game. McKinnon ran for 52 yards on 10 carries (5.2 YPC), and he also scored two TDs for the second week in a row. He has 17 receptions and five TDs (one on the ground and four receiving) in his last three games and has the second highest fantasy points per game average in PPR scoring formats during that timeframe. 

Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor’s underwhelming season has come to an end as the Colts placed him on injured reserve as a result of a high ankle sprain that he suffered very early in his Saturday matchup against the Vikings. Zack Moss and Deon Jackson filled in for him, but despite Jackson being the more effective back on the day, Moss finished the game with more than twice the number of snaps played (53) than Jackson (25). Jackson gained 4.2 YPC compared to 3.4 YPC for Moss. Moss ran five more routes than Jackson, but each had just one target each. Jackson had some success when he started in place of the injured Taylor in Week 5 and 6. He gained 104 rushing yards (4.16 YPC), caught all 14 of his targets for 108 yards, and scored a rushing TD. However, based on his usage in Week 15, Moss will likely get the start in Week 16. On the other hand, if the Colts opt to have Moss and Jackson split carries, if Jackson gets hot it’s possible that he might end up being the dominant back in the Colts backfield. The Colts promoted Jordan Wilkins from their practice squad on Tuesday, adding depth to their backfield.

Carolina Panthers

Don’t look now but Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard is starting to gain some momentum just as D’Onta Foreman seems to be running out of gas just when you need him most. Foreman ran the ball 10 times and gained just nine yards on Sunday against the Steelers and is averaging just 3.33 YPC in his last four games. Hubbard didn’t do much better on the ground this past weekend, gaining 10 yards on four carries, but he did secure three receptions for 57 yards, and he played 63% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps, a season high. There was also an uptick in the percentage of early downs that Hubbard played in Week 15 and with the Panthers having run the ball 60% of the time in their last three games, there’s a chance that we might see a slight increase in Hubbard’s fantasy production moving forward.