Well, the positive touchdown regression finally happened for Joe Mixon, as his monster five touchdown game benefitted many fantasy owners who either acquired him as a buy low trade guy, or have stuck with him through the ineffectiveness he displayed in the red zone for most of the season. We won’t get those monster games every week from Mixon, or anyone really, but it proves that red zone usage will eventually pay off, so stay patient with your fantasy football teams and players. If you have T.J. Hockenson, you have to be excited about his first game as a member of the Vikings, given that he was targeted a bunch and utilized frequently in the red zone. Amidst all of the fantasy football busts at the tight end position, could Hockenson’s fantasy value be at an all-time high the rest of the way? It’s possible! From red zone passing, to rushing, to receiving, we’ll take a look at some notable numbers from the first nine weeks of the season that can help your fantasy football teams the rest of the way. Using the red zone report here at Fantasy Alarm, here are the key numbers and notes in this week’s red zone analysis.

 

 

 

NFL Red Zone Report

NFL Red Zone Passing

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs offense as a whole has underwhelmed this year, and it starts with the man under center. When looking at his red zone numbers in recent years, per Pro Football Reference, Brady is on pace for his worst completion percentage in the red zone since 2013. In fact, it would tie the worst mark of his entire career!

Year

Tm

G

Cmp

Att

Cmp%

2009

NE

16

43

75

57%

2010

NE

16

48

76

63%

2011

NE

16

57

99

58%

2012

NE

16

49

80

61%

2013

NE

16

42

83

51%

2014

NE

16

44

74

59%

2015

NE

16

53

83

64%

2016

NE

12

43

62

69%

2017

NE

16

52

86

60%

2018

NE

16

49

86

57%

2019

NE

16

50

91

55%

2020

TB

16

51

84

61%

2021

TB

17

73

120

61%

2022

TB

9

28

55

51%


 

Despite being tied with Justin Herbert for the second-most red zone passing attempts this season, Brady has just nine red zone touchdown passes, which trails the likes of Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Trevor Lawrence.

 

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers

Rookie struggles in the red zone aren’t unheard of, given that the field compresses and the margin for error becomes even smaller. While he hasn’t thrown any red zone interceptions yet, he’s just 7-for-16 with two touchdowns. Pittsburgh doesn’t exactly have a prolific offense at the moment, so red zone opportunities are few and far between. Pickett is really nothing more than a desperation play in Superflex formats at the moment, given that he has yet to throw multiple touchdowns in any game this season, and his 4.8 INT% is the worst mark in the league amongst qualified quarterbacks.

 

 

 

NFL Red Zone Rushing

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Isn’t it great when positive regression hits in a monster way? We’ve talked for weeks that Mixon’s red zone usage will shine above the ineffectiveness to date, and man oh man, did that happen or what!? He had eight total red zone touches, resulting in touchdowns of one, two, three, 12 and 14 yards. FIVE SCORES! We won’t get that each week, of course, but if you trust red zone usage, more often than not, the production comes at some point. “If you build it, they will come.”

 

D’Onta Foreman, Carolina Panthers

Foreman may be good for one or two targets per game if that, but he’s the unquestioned RB1 for this team moving forward. It seems like Chuba Hubbard got Wally Pipp’d, as an ill-timed injury opened the door for Foreman to assert himself as the bell cow back, albeit for a porous offense. Foreman has 12 red zone carries over the last two weeks (Week 8 and 9) and given the timing of this article, he added another handful in Week 10 on Thursday Night Football. His work in the receiving game is minimal, but in Weeks 7-10, Foreman’s 17 red zone carries are more than triple than Chuba Hubbard (2), Raheem Blackshear (2), and Spencer Brown (1) combined.


 

NFL Red Zone Receiving

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Well, it didn’t take long for Hockenson to get involved with his new squad. In his debut with the team, not only did he play 91 percent of the snaps, but he caught all nine of his targets for 70 yards. His nine targets were the second-most he’s had in a game all season, and his nine receptions were a season high. In his first game with Minnesota, he saw three red zone targets, which was a season high for Hockenson, as he had just two games with Detroit this year where he saw two red zone looks. In fact, for his whole NFL career, per Pro Football Reference, here are the games where he’s had at least three red zone targets:

  • October 18th, 2020
  • December 13th, 2020
  • November 6th, 2022

In 47 games with the Lions, he had just two games with three red zone targets. He notched that number in his first game with Minnesota.


Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Has Cole Kmet finally arrived for the 2022 season? He has three touchdowns on four red zone targets over the last two weeks, so my best ball shares have been riding high of late. Over the last two weeks, Kmet has seven receptions on eight targets for 52 yards and three touchdowns, and while it’s underwhelming outside of the scores, there has been a breath of fresh air in this Chicago offense, and Kmet is the guy through the air in the red zone. If he’s out there on the waiver wire, I’d pick him up as an upside guy at the position, because there are some good matchups in the coming week for the third-year pro.

 

 

 

 

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