Saints vs. Buccaneers Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 18, Sunday 1/5

There are a couple of these games on the slate. One team has huge playoff implications on the line. The other team has nothing going other than to play spoiler. Like many of them, this is a division game which ups the ante on the “spoiler” perspective.
If the Buccaneers win this game, they are in the playoffs. If they lose or tie, they need the Atlanta Falcons to lose to the Carolina Panthers. That’s not something they want to leave up to chance. So we’ll factor that and the other injuries and narratives into our Week 18 Saints vs. Buccaneers predictions.
Even if you just want to see the Saints vs. Buccaneers odds and have Saints vs. Buccaneers picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus!
Saints vs. Buccaneers Predictions For NFL Week 18, Sunday Night Football
As they are division rivals, these teams play a minimum of twice a year. And the Buccaneers have been getting the better of the Saints as of late. They have won four of the last five including a 51 to 27 drubbing earlier this year. The Saints did win the second game last season, however.
The season was looking lost for Tampa Bay at one point. But they clawed their way back into the light lately by winning five of their last six. Their lone loss over that span was an uncharacteristic drop to the Dallas Cowboys the week before last. The Saints season was completely derailed by injuries and they have done the opposite, losing five of their last six.
New Orleans Saints: Injury Riddled
You start 11 players on each side of the ball. Of their original starting 11, the Saints are missing Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill, Erik McCoy, and Lucas Patrick. They’ll also very likely be without Alvin Kamara (doubtful) and possibly Juwan Johnson (questionable). In fact, they might be starting Clyde Edwards-Helaire at running back, who they just added off waivers, as Kendre Miller is also out.
Things haven’t been much better on defense for the Saints, especially against the run. They are currently allowing the second most rushing yards per game of any team at 139.1. And FTN Fantasy’s DVOA stat, which attempts to adjust for strength of opponent and other circumstances, has them ranked 31st.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Playoffs, Incentives, and Milestones
There are two main narratives for the Buccaneers this week. We already mentioned the “win and in” situation for the playoffs. But they also have some incentives. If Baker Mayfield can just maintain his current standing and not fall out of the top 10 for passer rating (4th in NFL), touchdown passes (2nd), passing yards (2nd), completion percentage (2nd), and yards per pass attempt (5th) then he will make an extra $500,000 for each one.
Mike Evans has some equally juicy incentives. If he can hit 70+ catches, 1,000+ yards, and 10+ touchdowns, he makes an extra $3,000,000. He would do that simply by have five catches for 85 yards. That would also make his 11th straight 1,000-yard season.
On defense, the Buccaneers have been very much one-sided. They’ve been one of the better teams in the run, thanks in large part to Vita Vea over the middle. But they have struggled against the pass, especially against tight ends. Injuries have played a role in that and they will once again be without Jamel Dean and Antoine Winfield.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
As promised, the latest Saints vs. Buccaneers odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: New Orleans Saints +14 (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -14 (-110)
- Money Line: New Orleans Saints (+600) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-900)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 43.5 (-110) vs. Under 43.5 (-110)
Saints vs. Buccaneers: Game Total Under 43.5 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
One name we didn’t mention yet, who will likely be the key to this game, is Bucky Irving. I’m sure the Buccaneers will do what they can to get Mike Evans his money and milestones. But the most important thing is making the playoffs. Bucky Irving has been playing incredible lately with three different games of 150+ yards from scrimmage over the second half of the year. And the Saints can’t stop the run.
On the flip side, the Saints just have too many injuries to overcome. The game against the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football was a travesty with the Saints getting completely blanked. And it wasn’t much better against the Raiders with them scoring only 10 points. With the Bucs potentially running the ball at will and Spencer Rattler not holding up his end of the bargain in terms of fighting back, I’m taking the under on this one.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Injury Report & Latest News
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:
NO Saints
- QB Derek Carr - Out
- RB Kendre Miller - Out
- RB Alvin Kamara - Doubtful
- DE Payton Turner - Questionable
- LB Pete Werner - Questionable
- TE Juwan Johnson - Questionable
- WR Chris Olave - Questionable
- LB Willie Gay Jr - Questionable
TB Buccaneers
- DB Jamel Dean - Out
- S Antoine Winfield Jr - Out
- TE Cade Otton - Doubtful
- DT William Gholston - Questionable
- WR Sterling Shepard - Questionable
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Player News
Beat reporter Scott Bair reports that Bears DC Dennis Allen asked slot CB Kyler Gordon to learn a second position, either on the perimeter or at safety.
The Bears’ previous coaching staff spent two seasons trying this experiment before allowing Gordon to blossom in a full-time slot- and box-coverage role last season. Perhaps, Allen can succeed where others have failed. His intent is to “find some more playing time” for Gordon, which is understandable given Gordon’s significant on-field impact last year.
Bills signed CB Tre’Davious White, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year, $6.8 million contract.
White, now 30 years old, returns to the team that drafted him in the 2017 NFL Draft’s first round. White was a force to be reckoned with early in his career, but a 2021 ACL tear and a 2023 Achilles tendon rupture have reduced his play quality. White will now compete for the Bills’ No. 2 perimeter role.
Bills waived TE Armani Rogers.
This is unfortunate. Rogers recently ruptured his Achilles tendon for the second time in three years. He showed promise as a 2022 rookie, earning a 65.3 PFF receiving grade and a 68.0 PFF run-blocking grade, but the injuries are taking their toll. The Bills also released DT Branson Deen.
Titans waived OT Nicholas Petit-Frere.
The team signed C Sam Mustipher and OT Oli Udoh in corresponding moves. Petit-Frere failed to meet expectations after the Titans spent a third-round pick on him in 2022, allowing 35-plus quarterback pressures in 2-of-3 NFL seasons.
Cowboys signed OL Hakeem Adeniji, formerly of the Browns, to a contract.
The former 2020 sixth-round pick last took regular season snaps in 2022. Adeniji spent the 2023 season serving as a part-time special teams player, and although he was technically on the Browns’ 2024 roster, he missed the full season on injured reserve. Adeniji will likely handle a deep-backup/special teams role in Dallas this year.
Free agent QB Aaron Rodgers said on The Pat McAfee Show that he is currently focusing on matters in his personal life while mulling his future in the NFL.
In a wide-ranging discussion with McAfee, Rodgers said that he is still contemplating whether to play in 2025 or retire this offseason, though he has settled on a $10 million asking price, should he choose to stick around. Rodgers repeatedly, yet ambiguously, emphasized that caring for troubled members of his “inner circle” has been his offseason priority. Rodgers spoke positively of his recent visit with the Steelers, praising head coach Mike Tomlin, OC Arthur Smith, GM Omar Khan, QB coach Tom Arth and WR DK Metcalf, whom he called “a specimen” and a “great dude.” Rodgers downplayed reports about pitching Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell on a union, saying much ado has been made about two old “friends” remaining in regular contact. The free agent QB also notably complimented Giants head coach Brian Daboll’s “beautiful football mind” but kept Giants-talk relatively succinct. Rodgers made clear that the rapidly approaching 2025 NFL Draft will have no bearing on his decision-making timeline, and he understands if the Steelers determine that they must move on without him. In short, it appears as though Rodgers will either sign with the Steelers or move on from football. The enigmatic quarterback gave few indications as to which direction he is leaning.