Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 12, Sunday 11/24
One of the several divisional rivalries this weekend will be down in South Beach this Sunday with the Miami Dolphins hosting the New England Patriots. It’s their second meeting of the season, and as both teams try to earn just their fourth win of the year, we’ve provided the best bet from our Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions and more.
In terms of more, we have a brand new $150 DraftKings Sportsbook welcome bonus for you to claim using anything, Patriots vs. Dolphins picks or otherwise!
Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions For NFL Week 12, Sunday 11/24
With New England coming off quite a rough home loss and Miami having just won back-to-back games, seeing the Patriots vs. Dolphins odds having the home team as such heavy favorites is no shock. We certainly agree with the oddsmakers in that sense, especially given how these teams match up.
We’ll get more into numbers during the best bet from our Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions, but overall, New England’s pass defense was just torched by the Los Angeles Rams. If there is ever a perfect team to replicate that, it’s Miami. So, while we expect them to win the game overall, our favorite market is more specific than the overall point spread.
New England Patriots: Finding An Identity
Since the end of the Tom Brady days, even Pats fans would admit that expectations in Foxboro have diminished. However, while they’ve needed to begin a new era, they have at least been able to hang their hat on the fact that their defense was still quite feared.
That has since changed, even with a former linebacker in Jerod Mayo taking over as head coach. Not only were they just lit up by the Rams through the air this past Sunday, but they are also allowing over 128 rushing yards per game. That’s not good news when facing a Miami team with plenty of weapons that are also seemingly getting healthier.
Miami Dolphins: Time For A Playoff Run
Despite Miami actually only having one more win than the Pats, they are actually on the other end of the spectrum. Make no doubt - it’s going to take a great home stretch run, but the Dolphins can absolutely keep their playoff hopes alive.
A win here with two games left against a New York Jets team that just fired their general manager and a mediocre-at-best Cleveland Browns squad could help them earn an AFC Wild Card spot. They’ve already beaten New England on the road earlier this year, so confidence should certainly be high.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
The latest Patriots vs. Dolphins odds at DraftKings Sportsbook below are just about what our projections have as well, which is why we’ll be focusing on a more specific market for our best bet in just a moment:
- Point Spread: New England Patriots +7 (-112) vs. Miami Dolphins -7 (-108)
- Money Line: New England Patriots (+285) vs. Miami Dolphins (-360)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 46.5 (-110) vs. Under 46.5 (-110)
Patriots vs. Dolphins Best Bet: Miami First Half -4.5 Point Spread (-102 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Before we dive into our favorite approach, we’d also suggest using our Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions in a teaser with another team that you are confident in this weekend. Getting Miami -1 could be a strong play rather than worrying about a backdoor cover like how we saw New England end last Sunday within one possession.
That said, the focus of our Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions is the first half of this game. Now that Miami has hit the ground running with two straight wins under a healthy QB Tua Tagovailoa, we expect a strong start to this AFC East rivalry. Not only that, but their win over the Pats earlier this season was with Tua out of the lineup!
They held New England to just 10 points and now get to host them after seeing them get torched through the air. Specifically, it was explosive plays by the Rams, and with guys like WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle paired with RB DeVon Achane, Miami can certainly replicate that success.
Furthermore, the Pats have been abysmal in the first half of games. That may actually be putting it lightly - their 3-8 record against the spread in the first half is the absolute worst in the NFL. Look for Miami head coach Mike McDaniels to scheme like Rams head coach Sean McVay for this matchup, as the two coached together in Washington for three years.
Along with the trajectory of these teams, we love Miami -4.5 in the first half (+102 at DraftKings Sportsbook) as the best bet from our Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Injury Report & Latest News
One of the biggest questions this year was, when will Tua Tagovailoa play again? That has since been answered, and we saw Hill healthy enough to go off last Sunday despite a wrist injury. Keep track of all the latest injury news with Fantasy Alarm’s NFL injury report here.
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Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Beat reporter John Hendrix reports that free agent WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is among the 16 players that the Saints will host for their rookie minicamp.
Peoples-Jones last played regular season snaps with the Lions back in 2023, when he caught 13-of-24 targets for 155 yards. He is highly unlikely to return to fantasy relevance at this point but could perhaps sign on as a special teams contributor.
Titans signed fourth-round pick WR Elic Ayomanor to a four-year contract.
Ayomanor will now begin learning behind Calvin Ridley. Although Ayomanor is unlikely to find a meaningful role in year one, dynasty managers should note his status as training camp gets underway this summer. The former Stanford receiver flashed big-play ability in his two college seasons.
Buccaneers signed seventh-round pick WR Tez Johnson to a four-year contract.
Johnson will serve as a rotational deep-threat option for Baker Mayfield. His thin frame (5'10/154) simply does not lend itself to the repeated hits one incurs in a full-time role. Johnson did earn 100-plus targets in his two seasons at Oregon, though. His big-play style make him a better fit in best ball for now, pending any major on-field breakthroughs.
Giants waived DT Casey Rogers.
Rogers was a 2024 undrafted free agent and logged 33 defensive snaps for the Giants in his rookie season. He is credited with zero tackles and/or sacks. He may find his way onto another roster as a practice squad option.
Vikings signed third-round pick WR Tai Felton to a four-year contract.
Felton is quietly in play to challenge Vikings No. 3 WR Jalen Nailor in training camp. Nailor (5'11/190) caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starter last year, with the latter category buoying his fantasy productivity. Felton (6'1/183), meanwhile, caught 96-of-143 targets for 1,119 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 2.32 yards per route run in his final college season. Fantasy managers should monitor Felton’s training camp reports this summer, as he could have a matchup-based WR5 role if everything falls into place.