NFL DFS Week 17 Playbook: Top DraftKings & Top FanDuel Picks

Just an unbelievably soft, squishy match-up here for Hurts as the Cardinals defense has been one of the absolute worst this season, meaning the absolute best to match up against for DFS purposes. Hurts should be good for at least one rushing touchdown, if not more and given the fact that opposing QBs have posted a 101.9 passer-rating (second-highest), you know the efficiency and results are there. We've seen everyone from Justin Fields to Brock Purdy to Matthew Stafford all have recent success against this defense, so in a game the Eagles need to win if thy want to grab home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, you can expect Hurts to keep his foot on the gas throughout this one.

You have to shake off the horrendous effort against the Ravens last week and get right back onto the Purdy horse – if he is playing. We'll have to see. In all likelihood it will be him under center as his removal from Monday's game was probably more precautionary than anything, especially since the Niners were already getting blown out. Purdy is a strong competitor and will not want the Christmas game to be what he was remembered for this season. Hopefully the MVP talk dies down and he can get back to business against the worst secondary in the NFL as Washington ranks dead-last in DVOA against the pass, allow the highest passer-rating (102.9) against them and give up the most passing touchdowns in the league. 

It's been a rough season for Mahomes and the Chiefs and for those who have routinely invested, but I'm just not ready to let go. We haven't used Mahomes as a cash game QB for a number of weeks now, but I am still very much willing to build a GPP tournament lineup with him at the helm. Rough season or not, he still has a tremendous ceiling. You can use him on his own or stack him with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, but keep in mind, those costs are still way too high for the recent production and it means you need to really nail your pay-downs. It is more than possible and in this match-up against the Bengals is soft enough to grant us that coveted ceiling. Cincinnati ranks 22nd in DVOA against the pass, they allow the fifth-most passing yards per game and have allowed 20 touchdowns through the air. He'll easily be under 10-percent owned this week which is ideal for GPP.

I've been battling back and forth with myself over this one. Lamar has been wildly inconsistent this season, but he's actually posted some solid totals over these last three games, including last week against the 49ers. Mike McDaniel and Vic Fangio have been working tirelessly to scheme against Jackson, but check out any interview Fangio has done this past week and even he'll tell you scheming against Jackson is an exercise in futility. His ability, not just to extend plays with his legs, but to have the focus and field of vision to still find his targets downfield is impressive. And if he doesn't find anyone, he can take off and rack up that rushing yardage to help raise his floor. The last time Lamar faced Fangio was in 2021 when the Ravens faced Denver and Jackson completed 22 of 37 passes for 316 yards and a TD, took three sacks, and rushed seven times for 28 yards in a 23-7 Baltimore win. Fangio will look to pressure him, but can he also close off the running lanes when he does? We'll see. Working potentially in our favor as well is that I truly believe McDaniel has something up his sleeve against the Ravens defense so we could see a bit of a back-and-forth here.

He's back at practice, he's cleared concussion protocol and we are ready to get Stroud right back into our lineups, especially against this Titans secondary. They wouldn't put him out there if there was any concern, so we as DFS players have to assume it's wheels up for the potential Offensive Rookie of the Year. In seven home games this season, Stroud has averaged 324.7 passing yards per game with 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He also has one rushing touchdown. Now he'll face a Titans secondary that ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass and is allowing opposing QBs to post a 97.6 passer-rating against them. If you've used Stroud with us in the past, you're going to be psyched about using him again here.

As much as I love Stafford, I am going to leave him as a GPP tournament option only, simply because of the opponent. I do have similar concerns for Brock Purdy, but Washington is dead in the water while the Giants, for some reason, make me a little bit nervous. We've seen them step up at times before and there is also the fact that their run defense is so poor, we could see a heavy lean on Kyren Williams just to limit Stafford's mistakes and spare him from taking any unnecessary hits. But when he's on, the ceiling is phenomenal. Not only does Williams get into the passing attack, but the weaponry is first-rate. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are no-brainers, but the addition of Demarcus Robinson has elevate this attack even more. There is so much talent on this team and such a potentially soft opponent, we have to dive in.

When our resident QB guru Jon Impemba stands up and shouts Mayfield's name, we have to listen. He threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns the last time he faced New Orleans and that was on the road. Now in the friendly confines of his home stadium, Baker is looking to secure the NFC South and punch his team's ticket to the playoffs. While the Saints recent pass defense numbers have looked decent, keep in mind that two of their last three games came against the Panthers and Giants. When they've faced tougher opponents like Rams and Lions, they've been decimated. This game has a 42.5 game total, but definitely has some shootout vibes to it as well, so if you're looking for a pay-down, this could be the way. 

In addition to Mayfield in this match-up, I also really like Carr. He's actually performed slightly better on the road than he has at home and this Bucs secondary has been getting beaten up pretty badly all season long. We also just got word that Carlton Davis is out for this game, so that helps open things up even more for Carr. Tampa is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points pr game to opposing quarterbacks, they allow the most passing yards per game and have allowed 21 touchdowns through the air. Like I said above, this match-up has some shootout vibes to it, so keep Carr on your radar as a nice paydown. 

DO you really need me to drop analysis on McCaffrey here? I didn't think so. It comes down to cost. Do you have enough high-floor bargains to lock McCaffrey into your cash game lineups? If so, great. If not, you certainly will have plenty of pay-downs to use him in GPP contests.

He's expensive, but should be worth it in this match-up against a Giants team that seems ready to pack it in for the season. After a three-game win streak, the defense has gotten beaten up by the Eagles and Saints and now has to face Williams, who has over 100 rushing yards in four of his last five games and has five touchdowns over that span. There is no reason to think he won't see another 20-plus carries in this game, especially since the Giants allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game and have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns this year. Even at this price, he's likely to be pretty chalky in all contest formats.

I'm not a huge Swift fan for DFS, but when the match-up looks like this, I have to give him consideration, at least for GPP tournaments. He's still the primary back, but has recently been sharing more with Kenneth Gainwell as the Eagles are obviously looking to keep him fresh for the playoffs, and we know the tush-push limits his touchdown upside. But the Cardinals are giving up the most rushing yards per game and have coughed up 19 rushing touchdowns on the season. If the Eagles lean a little more on Swift in this one, he should be able to provide you with a strong enough return.

The last time Kamara faced Tampa Bay, it was his first game off the suspension and he had 11 carries and caught 13 passes. That's the way you neutralize the Bucs run defense and Carr loves dumping it off to his running back. Just one word of caution as Kamara, like many other players, landed on the injury report late in the week due to an illness. He should be fine for Sunday, but just be cautious and follow the news cycles Saturday and into Sunday morning. There are similarly-priced pivots available, so don't force it if you don't have to, but given the match-up and his abilities, we'd like to get some exposure.

Yeah, yeah. This is sort of a capitulation to Jon Impemba who, no matter how wrong he was entering the season, is still standing by Ekeler. Normally, I wouldn't, but we used him a few weeks ago with the right match-up and it paid off. Now we look at how the new coaching regime is giving more work to him since Brandon Staley was canned and we know this match-up against Denver tilts in his favor. Obviously, we'd like to see him catch more passes, but we're not going to bank on it. What we will bank on is the potential for another 15 touches out of the backfield. Denver allows the second-most rushing yards per game and they've allowed 14 rushing touchdowns on the year. If Ekeler sees a similar workload, we cannot ignore him at this price-point.

LATE ADD – With word that Pacheco has cleared concussion protocol and will start, we are going to pivot off Clyde Edwards-Helaire and go right back to Pacheco. We already know the Bengals rank 28th in DVOA against the run, allow the seventh-most rushing yards per game and have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns on the season. With DJ Reader on IR, the Chiefs rushing attack should be one in which we want to invest, however, we're going to leave him as a GPP-only option simply because of the nature of the injury, the risk of reinjuring himself and the fact that CEH is also going to be active, potentially altering Pacheco's overall workload. Maybe a good contrarian play here now.

LATE ADD – The latest word from both Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero is that Raheem Mostert will not play. That immediately vaults Achane up the boards for both cash games and GPP tournaments. It's not the ideal match-up as the Ravens don't give up a ton of rushing yards and have allowed just five rushing touchdowns all year, but this could be a big volume play for us with him getting the full workload. I probably like him for tournaments more, but cannot argue against him for cash as the lead back in this offense.

While I don't love the move from Russell Wilson to Jarrett Stidham overall, it should benefit Williams in this Joe Lombardi offense. I expect Stidham to check it down plenty with the Chargers pass-rush coming at him and we know Lombardi loves his running backs involved in the passing game. He had 66 rushing yards and a touchdown on 17 carries along with three catches for 25 yards when they played the Chargers two weeks ago and he should see even more passing work this time around.

With word that Rhamondre Stevenson was finally left on IR, we can now feel comfortable about using Zeke as a pay-down at running back. He doesn't have the GPP upside because he is limited by the ineptitude of this Patriots offense, but we've seen Bill Belichick lean heavily on the ground game against Buffalo before and there doesn't seem to be any reason not to think he doesn't try it again. Buffalo ranks 20th in DVOA against the run and they're allowing close to 112 rushing yards per game. With a run-heavy scheme, Zeke should be able to see enough success to keep the floor raised and we know he gets all the short-yardage, goal-line work. Most will use Zamir White as their cash game pay-down so if you do want to pivot away from what the lineup optimizers are spitting out, he's your guy.

With word that Josh Jacobs is now being listed as doubtful for Sunday, we can happily make our pivot to White without any concern. He's filled in admirably over these last two weeks and this match-up falls right in line with his previous two games where he's faced less-than-stellar run defenses. The Colts remain a run defense we like to target against as they're allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game and have allowed 21 rushing touchdowns on the year, second-most in the NFL. Grover Stewart or not, this Colts run defense is soft.

He is off the injury report and creeping up in the DFS ownership projections. We'll continue to monitor that to see just how invested we want to be for cash games but for now, I'm leaning GPP only. No Jaylen Waddle puts a much heavier focus on Tyreek against this Ravens secondary, so expect strong, bracket coverage. The problem for the Ravens is that he's just so darn fast and can find the holes in the secondary quite easily. If McDaniel has something up his sleeve here, Hill should be able to break through.

The Commanders are allowing the most passing yards per game and have allowed the most passing touchdowns this season. They rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass and there is no reason why we can't get Deebo into our lineups. I'm a huge fan and what he's been doing the past few weeks has been amazing. Yes, the 49ers could go run-heavy, but I'm willing to bet they have some fun and air it out as well. Deebo is a fantastic option but if you can't afford his salary, don't sweat it. You've got an equally tasty, slightly less expensive guy on the roster…

Take everything I just said above about Deebo and put that all towards Aiyuk as well. For me, using the SF passing attack is about price. Who can we fit? If you can't afford to use Deebo, Aiyuk is more than comparable and he comes at a much lower price tag. I will say that I prefer Aiyuk in GPP tournaments because those who invest in the Niners will lean towrds Deebo more.

It's a no-brainer match-up for us with Brown as this kind of a game is where Hurts and Brown reconnect after not finding the end zone together over the last four games. Arizona ranks 30th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and they've allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns this season. Without a defensive back who can match Brown's physicality, this match-up should be top-shelf for us. 

While we've only seen one 100-yard effort from Rice this season, he's been a model of consistency which makes him a fantastic cash game play. Over his last five games, Rice has averaged 10 targets per game and turned them into an average of just over seven catches for 78 yards per game with three touchdowns in that span. He's become the only reliable receiver in this offense and should maintain that status this week against the Bengals.

We know the Bucs secondary, even with Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis back in action, struggles as it funnels everything to the middle of the field. They're allowing the most passing yards per game this season, they've allowed 21 passing touchdowns and rank 27th in DVOA against the opposing WR1. With the way Derek Carr has been slinging the rock, garbage-time or not, Olave should eat again this week and be a rock solid option in all contest formats.

With Stroud back under center, I'm pushing the chips all-in on Collins this week. Huge fan and this Titans secondary is beyond soft. The Titans rank 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and they're allowing an average of just over 82 receiving yards per game to them. It's a home game for Houston who is currently tied with Jacksonville and Indianapolis at 8-7, but they lose the tiebreakers, so they know they need to win outright. This will be the first step and Collins will be center-stage.

This price tag and facing the Colts? Yes, please! The Indianapolis cover-corners are soft and we've been attacking them on the outside throughout the season. Shake off last week's disappointing game against the Chiefs and focus on the fact that he is averaging 10 targets per game over the last six and has a distinct advantage over both Jaylon Jones and JuJu Brents who cover the outside.

Not only do the Saints rank 25th in DVOA against the opposing WR2 and allow an average of 63 receiving yards per game to them, but Godwin takes the majority of his snaps from the slot which matches him up against Alontae Taylor. He's put together two strong efforts, totaling 16 catches for 233 yards over the last couple of games and should be leaned on in this match-up again even if we don't have to worry about the Mike Evans/Marshon Lattimore feud this week.

If you can't afford Collins but want a slice of this Texans pass attack, then Brown is your guy. He is off the injury report, comes at a major discount and had eight catches for 82 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets two weeks ago against the Titans. But that was with Case Keenum under center. We've seen Stroud and Brown team up in style before and I can easily see them doing it again this week.

There was some fleeting concern this week when Flowers missed two practices with a calf issue, but he returned to the field Friday and we will monitor his level of participation on Saturday. Flowers shook off a foot injury this past week to be the featured receiver for Lamar Jackson against the 49ers, posting nine catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins have struggled in coverage in recent weeks and rank 23rd in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver, allowing an average of nearly 80 receiving yards per game. If Jackson starts leaning on Flowers again in this potential shootout, we have ourselves a fantastic pay-down.

While Shaheed is normally considered a GPP-only play, the most recent update of our DFS Ownership Percentages has him projected as one of the highest-owned receivers in mega-multi-entry GPP tournaments. When that happens, we know we can use that player in cash games because the herd is looking to him as a salary-saver. Shaheed's body  of work this season has been impressive and the target share has increased steadily. If the Saints aren't just using him as a deep-threat anymore, then we shouldn't either. I'll happily take the free square. 

Another salary-saver presented to us by the DFS Ownership Projections. Unlike Shaheed, though, I will only look to Douglas as a free square for cash games. While he may be the most popular target on the Patriots and has proven to have a solid floor, there isn't really much of a ceiling here, even against a secondary like Buffalo's which has had its struggles. I prefer Shaheed on both sites, but if you're really hard-up for budget help on DK, then Douglas is your guy.

While everyone else chases Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims, I'm locking in Johnson as an outstanding pay-down at the position. Why him? Well, how about we go back to a time when a certain fantasy analyst told you all to invest in Courtland Sutton this year. He was the X-receiver in a Joe Lombardi offense and the targets were going to funnel towards him. Did that happen? It sure did. What else happened? Sutton got concussed and when he left the game it was Johnson who took over as the X-receiver, saw five targets and finished the day with three catches for 47 yards and a touchdown. Working even more in his favor right now is that Jarrett Stidham is under center and guess who's spent the entire season at practice throwing to Johnson? Yeah, that's right. Against the Chargers, I am happy to lock Johnson into all my cash and GPP lineups. This is where your knowledge of offensive systems pays off once again.

Just stop. Yes, I know what's gone on with Kelce in recent weeks and all season. The price tag is still pretty high so we'll probably look to him for GPP tourneys only, but you know just how explosive he can be. The Chiefs can't afford to screw around anymore and will likely spend the entire week focusing on their passing attack. With a match-up here against a Bengals team that ranks 31st in DVOA against the tight end, I want some Kelce shares no matter the recent struggles.

While the Eagles have improved against the tight end since Kevin Byard became their starting safety, they still rank 27th in DVOA against the position and are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Kyler Murray has locked onto McBride as his security blanket and should continue to see an enormous target share. The Cardinals pass-catchers have been a little banged-up and we know Marquise Brown is on IR, so who else is Murray really going to lean on? He's getting a little pricey, but if you can afford the salary, we like the play.

While Miami hasn't given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing tight ends, they do rank 23rd in DVOA against the position and are allowing an average of just over 51 receiving yards per game to them. We know how heavily the tight end is used in Todd Monken's offense and Likely has stepped into that Mark Andrews role without a hitch. If this game turns into a back-and-forth, you can expect enough of a lean on Likely to keep him going. We'll limit to GPP for now since Zay Flowers and the rest of the receivers are healthy, but he should be worth the price.

This is one of the softest match-ups for a TE this week and the hope is that another week of practice will put Waller and Tommy Cutlets on the same page. The Rams rank 24th in DVOA against the position and allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight end this season. With the Giants offense being meh, we'll leave it as a cash game play for now.

We've been backing Chig over the last few weeks as we've watched his usage and aDOT increase steadily. He finally found the end zone last week, even if it was on a gimmicky play, and now faces a Texans team that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. If Chig can stay on Ryan Tannehill's radar, this could certainly work. 

The guy has seen eight targets per game over his last three and has been leaned on nicely by Easton Stick as the Chargers look to finish out this season on some sort of a high not. Knocking Denver out of playoff contention fits the bill, doesn't it? Denver allows the most fantasy points per game to the tight end and they rank dead-last in DVOA against the position. Even better is the low cost.

Over the last three weeks, the Bucs have allowed 236 yards and two touchdowns on 21 catches to the opposing tight end. Those numbers are ridiculous. And now they face Johnson who has six catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns on nine targets over his last two games? Listen, I don't love getting involved in the Saints TE situation any more than you do, but Taysom Hill has barely touched the ball over the past two games and the Saints aren't being idiots in the red zone lately either. With the way Carr has been slinging the rock, this is definitely an intriguing pay-down at the position.

Once again, you use the defense that fits your budget and build best. Simple as that. We'll start with the Niners as Jacoby Brissett is questionable with a hamstring issue which means Sam Howell and his interceptions could make an appearance in this one. The Niners are a first-rate defense that gets sacks and forces turnovers, so if you can afford them, why not? 

The Eagles are in a similar spot at the 49ers, facing an inept team struggling to close out the season. Yes, their secondary has been banged up, but their pass-rush is going to give Kyler Murray fits all day. And if Murray's illness gets the better of him, the Eagles vs Clayton Tune is a song I'd like to sing. 

How great has the Bears defense been in recent weeks? They're pressuring the QB, picking up sacks, forcing turnovers and now get a conservative offense in Atlanta with a turnover-prone Taylor Heinicke under center. One last stick it to Arthur Smith for us here!

The expectation is that Will Levis makes the start, but there is no guarantee yet. DeMeco Ryans has this offense looking much better as of late, so much so that even Derrick Henry struggled to run the ball against them for the first time in his career. The Titans are done for the year while the Texans need the win. I'll take their opportunistic defense in this match-up.

Yes, the Broncos defense ranks low in DVOA against both the run and the pass, but this is your weekly reminder that Easton Stick stinks and the Chargers offense is going to continue to struggle. I expect some turnovers and a low-scoring output for Los Angeles which makes the Broncos a rock-solid option.