NFL DFS Week 14 Playbook: Top DraftKings Picks & Top FanDuel Picks
Published: Dec 11, 2022
Everyone ready for NFL Week 14 DFS? The crew here at Fantasy Alarm is and we're pretty excited about what this week's Sunday DFS main slate has to offer. Now, there are certainly a few bumps in the road for us as six teams are on a bye which leaves us with just 10 games from which to choose. On top of a diminished player pool, we are also dealing with a number of NFL injuries which will require our attention. Will Travis Homer be the DFS bargain running back we need? The Seattle Seahawks are making it difficult on us as they have both Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas listed as questionable for a 4:25pm ET game. I get making DK Metcalf questionable with his hip issue, but neither Walker nor Dallas have practiced at all this week.
We'll be sifting through all the value at all the positions with a very watchful eye as we start to look towards roster construction. Last week, which seems to be the growing trend in recent weeks, we should have paid down at running back and up for wide receivers in cash games. We did that for our GPP tournament lineups and cashed, but not to the level we had hoped to see. This week, we are making sure that we are leaving no stones unturned. That's why we're watching Seattle so closely, as well as situations like Saquon Barkley's neck and the Houston Texans' wide receiver corps, but I'll leave that for the NFL Week 14 DFS Dart Board.
Oh yeah, we also have some rain in the forecast in a few spots, so make sure you are checking in on the latest NFL Week 14 weather reports, but I'm getting ahead of myself. Weather is covered below. I'm just really excited about this slate and some of our NFL Week 14 DFS Playbook options, so let's just get to it.
Now, before we get to the Playbook players, allow me to remind you what you should be doing leading up this step in your research.
Step 1: Check out the DFS Position Coaches
QB Coach – Jon Impemba (@jimpemba777)
RB Coach -- Justin Vreeland (@JustinVreeland)
WR Coach -- Colby Conway (@colbyrconway)
TE Coach -- Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco)
D/ST Coach -- Dan Malin (@RealDANlanta)
Step 2: Check out the rest of the relevant DFS content
In addition to the positional coaching pieces, you also have things like the DFS Watch List, where I provide you with a list of players I am looking at throughout the week. We have the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba, who also does the Contrarian Corner video and check out the DFS Bargains from Tera Roberts (@ItsTeraTime)
Also, our Master of Tools, Matt Selz (@theselzman), supplies you data junkies with the Weekly Match-Up Report and everyone should also be checking out the WR/CB Match-Up Report from Ryan Hallam (@fightingchance).
Speaking of tools, we have also done some major enhancements with our NFL tools. We continue to crunch the numbers and tweak our algorithms so that our daily fantasy football projections are the best in the industry and that, in turn, has improved things like our Lineup Generator/DFS Optimizer, our DFS Compare tool and even our NFL DFS Ownership Projections. Again, all right here on one site for your convenience.
Step 3: Check the Weather
At this time of year, weather is going to play a very important factor, so always check the weather reports as they can help guide you through which players to use and which ones to avoid. Now, checking in on the NFL Weather Report is a helpful tool, but try not to overreact. Light rain can make the field slick but is unlikely to affect the passing game enough to completely discount quarterbacks and wide receivers. Your biggest concern should come when you see heavy rain/snow and winds blowing in excess of 20 mph. When they say there are 12-15 mph gusts, you can be a little wary of the kicking games and maybe some deep passing, but again, you don't want to totally overreact and you definitely want to check the weather right up until game-time when finalizing your lineups.
Some NFL Week 14 Weather Conditions to Watch:
NYJ/BUF – Expecting some rain and snow but winds are only 10-12 mph
BAL/PIT – Chance of showers
PHI/NYG – rain expected but late in the afternoon
TB/SF – rain showers expected
Step 4: Make your own list of players
It's real easy to just sit and wait for the Playbook, but as you are doing your research throughout the week, it is important to make notes and list the players who interest you the most. Maybe they end up in the Playbook and maybe they don't. If they're there, then great, it should mean we are honing in on the same things that make him a strong play. If not, maybe you're onto something else that someone overlooked. We aren't perfect and if you uncover something different, maybe you're right. I would be careful of routine groupthink and hype from beat writers, but often times someone will tell me something they saw about their local team that I missed and I am always looking to investigate more if its there. If you do, then say something in our Fantasy Alarm Discord Chat, Talk it out and see what the rest of the #FAmily thinks. That's why the chat is there, isn't it?
With those three steps complete and discussions are in progress, you are ready to look at the Playbook players, make comparisons and finalize your list for lineups, so let's get to it.
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Matchup (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Josh Allen | NYJ @ BUF Sun 1:00 | 8300 | 8700 |
Allen's last three games have yielded fantasy point totals far less exciting than what he was doing in the beginning of the year, but Allen is still one of the safest cash-game quarterbacks in DFS. He did struggle through the air the last time he faced the Jets and weather was a factor, but he also rushed for 86 yards and two touchdowns, so that nice high-floor kept him above the 25 fantasy-point threshold we need from our quarterback in cash games. He's got the weapons he needs and the addition of James Cook to the rushing attack actually helps open things up more for Allen. Paying up at QB can make it tougher to build strong cash lineups, but we've done it before and we can do it again. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: A mix of rain and snow in the forecast with winds ranging from 8-12mph. | ||||
QB | Jalen Hurts | PHI @ NYG Sun 1:00 | 8100 | 8700 |
Hurts is probably one of the safest picks for the week as the Giants defense ranks 27th in DVOA against both the pass and the run. You're not going to see another 380-yard, three-touchdown performance, but you should see a nice balanced stat line as we expect him to do a lot more running given the Giants pass-rush. His floor makes him a fantastic cash game play, but, as you saw last week, there is definite GPP upside no matter who he faces. Keep in mind that we are hearing Saquon Barkley could be held out and if that's the case, the Giants may not be keeping this game as competitive as we originally hoped. Hurts is still viable, but might lean towards cash only. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the high 30's with a little rain, but nothing terrible as of Sunday morning. Winds likely stay below 10mph. | ||||
QB | Joe Burrow | CLE @ CIN Sun 1:00 | 7000 | 8300 |
Swaggy Joe is ready to roll as he's built up some serious momentum over the past few weeks. Since the Bengals Week 10 bye, Burrow has averaged 36 pass attempts and 304 passing yards per game while posting a 7:2 TD:INT over that span. He's got his favorite receiving weapon back and the Browns, who rank 20th in DVOA against the pass, are allowing an average of 214.8 passing yards per game with 17 touchdowns allowed through the air. With a little redemption on the line following their last loss to the Browns, you can expect a strong effort as the Bengals look to take over first place in the AFC North. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy skies with temps in the low 40's with very low winds. | ||||
QB | Geno Smith | CAR @ SEA Sun 4:25 | 6200 | 7700 |
I won't lie – seeing Geno Smith pop up on the NFL injury report from Thursday to Friday made me nervous because I love this match-up for him. Now that we are hearing he is off the injury report completely, we can go back to building some lineups with him under center. The Panthers are only allowing an average of 212.5 passing yards but have given up 15 touchdowns through the air this season. While the Seahawks are a run-first team, injuries to Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas will likely push Travis Homer into the lead back position and that might push offensive coordinator Shane Waldron into using Smith's arm more. Sam Darnold under center for Carolina actually gives them a little more offensive firepower, so these teams could start trading points late which certainly works for us. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Low winds, cloudy skies, and temps in the low 40's. It's also Seattle so we can't rule out the possibility of some pop-up showers. | ||||
QB | Kirk Cousins | 6100 | 7500 | |
No one is giving the Vikings the respect they deserve right now and that's exactly how Cousins likes it. He may crumble in prime-time, but we've seen him thrive when he and is team are disrespected in any way – like being 10-2 and a two-point underdog against the Lions. The first time Cousins faced them, he was solid, but not what you would call efficient as he posted just a 54-percent completion rate. He did throw for 260 yards and two touchdowns without an interception but there were definite struggles in the wake of his favorite target, Justin Jefferson, being shut down by Lions corner Jeffrey Okudah. That should be another intriguing match-up to watch, but look for Jefferson to edge out Okudah and for Cousins to utilize his other weapons, most notably his new tight end who appears to be a favorite target these days. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
QB | Jared Goff | MIN @ DET Sun 1:00 | 5600 | 7100 |
In his earlier match-up against the Vikings, Goff threw for 277 yards with one touchdown and one interceptions. Not eye-popping numbers but decent enough to give you confidence in using Goff as a respectable pay-down even in a cash game format. The Vikings have actually allowed the most receiving yards per game over the last three weeks (345.7) and have really struggled with injuries in the secondary. Harrison Smith is a man alone on an island over there these days. The Lions will always be a run-first team, but this passing attack should open up nicely in what is expected to be a back-and-forth shootout. And remember, Goff is at home here, so if you're into the home-road splits, this tilts the advantage towards Goff. Also, the 51.5 over/under may have come down a little, but is still the highest on total this slate. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
QB | Tyler Huntley | MIA @ LAC Sun 8:20 | 5500 | 7000 |
If you're building multiple lineups and don't like the pay-down to Goff, you could use Huntley against the Steelers this week and see about getting some of that rushing yard upside everyone is talking about. The Steelers haven't faced many mobile quarterbacks, but if you're keeping score, they're 1-2 against them. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts both picked them apart but they managed to limit Marcus Mariota to just 167 passing yards and just 17 rushing yards. We think Huntley probably sits somewhere between the Allen/Hurts level and the Mariota level, so we're expecting a decent day to pay off this salary. He threw for 187 yards and ran for 41 last week in relief of Lamar Jackson and last year, while filling in for Jackson for five games, he averaged 208.4 passing yards and 56.8 rushing yards. He only threw for three touchdowns but he ran two more in on his own. The Steelers defense has shown improvement, but Huntley doesn't exactly need to be a world-beater to offer up value. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
RB | Derrick Henry | BAL @ PIT Sun 1:00 | 7900 | 9000 |
Yes, it's been a rough few weeks for Henry as teams have been stacking the box like crazy and in his last two games, the opponents have put up enough points to have even Mike Vrabel give up on the run. We don't see that happening this week against the Jaguars who are allowing 113.6 rushing yards per game with 12 rushing touchdowns allowed on the season. And over the last three games, they've allowed 139.0 rushing yards per game so they're getting softer. Over his last six games against the Jags, Henry has averaged 22 carries for 145 yards per game with 12 touchdowns in that span. His price tag and recent showings may make him more of a GPP play than cash, especially if we are looking to pay up elsewhere. But I've built some intriguing GPP lineups with him in there and the results could be glorious. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy/Overcast skies with temps in the low 40's, but winds will be light. | ||||
RB | Joe Mixon | HOU @ DAL Sun 1:00 | 6900 | 8500 |
With full clearance via the league's concussion protocol and a full week of practice under his belt, Mixon is ready to take on the Browns this week and we love him in this match-up. Cleveland ranks 31st in DVOA against the run and they've allowed 127.4 rushing yards per game this season with 16 rushing touchdowns allowed. Yes, the Bengals are routinely about Joe Burrow and his receiving weapons, but we expect the Bengals to attack with Mixon early and try to reassert themselves as the dominant force in the AFC North. The last time these teams faced each other, Cleveland manhandled them, but having Chase running around the defensive backfield changes an awful lot this week. People may be scared off from Mixon because they expect Samaje Perine to continue getting significant work, but we know Zac Taylor wants his main guy in there as much as possible. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
RB | Ezekiel Elliott | HOU @ DAL Sun 1:00 | 6100 | 8000 |
We are going to group the analysis for Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott together as we believe, in this match-up against the Texans, both running backs are strong plays for both cash games and GPP tournaments. So much so that Jon Impemba and I discussed using both of them in the same lineup on this week's NFL DFS Podcast. We believe you can and maybe even should for your cash game play. You need them to combine for roughly 30 fantasy points in cash games and over the last three weeks, the two have combined for over 40 points which puts us right where we need/want them. We all know how bad the Texans run defense is, allowing almost 170 rushing yards per game and giving up 15 rushing touchdowns on the year, so we don't really need to dive in too deep. With the 17-point spread favoring the Cowboys, we expect a heavy ground attack, so the only thing really standing in our way is Mike McCarthy becoming possessed by the stupidity of Kevin Stefanski and they decide to try a heavier passing game. He couldn't possibly, could he? Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
RB | Tony Pollard | JAC @ TEN Sun 1:00 | 6700 | 7500 |
Obviously the price differential between Zeke and Pollard comes down to the DFS sit you play on and its scoring format. Pollard costs more on DraftKings due to his pass-catching work while Zeke is pricier on FanDuel and its half-point PPR scoring. Houston ranks 15th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, but that is more about his teams just run straight at them. Again, we believe you can use either or both on both sites, so if you opt not to use them together, you should probably just go with the cheaper of the two and use the extra money for receivers. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Overcast skies with temps in the high 40's and low winds. | ||||
RB | Miles Sanders | CAR @ SEA Sun 4:25 | 6200 | 7100 |
The Giants just gave up over 160 rushing yards to the Washington backfield and have now allowed 164.7 rushing yards per game over their last three which is the fifth-most in the NFL during that span. But what I love the most is how Sanders flies so far under the radar each week. He only had 24 yards on 10 carries this past week, but the attention all fell on A.J. Brown in his revenge-game and Sanders still managed to find the end zone. He is still averaging almost 16 carries per game and his nine rushing touchdowns are nine more than he had all of last year. Best of all is this price tag. Feel like I'm going to lock him into a number of my lineups this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Low winds, cloudy skies, and temps in the low 40's. It's also Seattle so we can't rule out the possibility of some pop-up showers. | ||||
RB | D'Andre Swift | 5800 | 7200 | |
If you caught the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba, you know we spent some time really breaking down this backfield and yet we still remain on opposite sides of the fence. Jon believes that Swift is taking control of this backfield now that he is healthy and I stand by the belief that Jamaal Williams is still very much an active player in this offensive scheme and will always be someone Dan Campbell leans on. Yes, Swift saw a 51-perent snap share last week, his highest since the first time he returned from injury, but as I asked on the podcast, was that about the match-up or is it a sudden, new trend because we are told that he's healthy? We aren't going to use either guy in a cash lineup because of the uncertain nature, but I do believe you can use either in a GPP tournament, depending on what you think this backfield split is all about. If you are on Team Swift and you think he dominates the touches, then you should get him into your lineups. Game Type: GPP | ||||
RB | Jamaal Williams | 5900 | 7000 | |
If you believe that Williams maintains his touches and continues to see work between the 20s as well as the majority of the goal-line work, then he's probably the guy you're going to want to use, especially on FanDuel. The Vikings have allowed an average of 115.1 rushing yards per game with 13 rushing touchdowns allowed and Williams will be the guy Campbell rides, especially if he is looking to control the clock in this one. Again, I believe both can be viable GPP running backs used for this week and maybe we get a little more clarity this week to determine which way we lean in the future. Game Type: GPP | ||||
RB | D'Onta Foreman | CLE @ CIN Sun 1:00 | 5400 | 6900 |
The Panthers are well-rested coming off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for the Seahawks. Watching Cam Akers rush for 60 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle last week had to be pretty encouraging and knowing that they allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs probably has Carolina salivating over the match-up. Since the trade of Christian McCaffrey, Foreman has been a beast in this backfield, averaging 19 carries per game with four 100-yard efforts and four touchdowns over a six-game span. With a halfway respectable passing threat under center, the Seahawks won't be able to just stack the box this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy skies with temps in the low 40's with very low winds. | ||||
RB | Travis Homer | 5000 | 5800 | |
Homer was a late add to the DFS Watch List as we've been tracking the health of this entire Seahawks backfield and while both Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas are listed as questionable, neither were able to practice at all Wednesday through Friday. That doesn't bode well for their participation Sunday, but we still have to wait and see and with the Seahawks game not being played until 4:25pm ET, we are going to have to do some serious lineup manipulation at the last minute should Walker suddenly be able to play. Dallas doesn't really matter. We can still use Homer even if Dallas plays, but if Walker is available, this play is cooked. If not, then we are getting a spectacular bargain against a Panthers team that ranks 22nd in DVOA against the run and has allowed an average of 135.7 rushing yards per game this season with a total of 13 rushing touchdowns allowed. Hate to root against a guy like Walker, but fingers-crossed we get Homer at this discounted price. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
WR | Justin Jefferson | MIN @ DET Sun 1:00 | 9000 | 9300 |
While the price tag might push you more towards GPP tournament lineups, I have nothing but the utmost of confidence in Jefferson to atone for his poor showing against Jeffrey Okudah back in Week 3. The guy has seven 100-yard efforts this season including two in his last four games and he's found the end zone in four of his last five. You don't need us to tell you he is a top star and a must for lineups no matter what the match-up, but just in case you need a reminder this week, we've got you covered. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | Adam Thielen | CAR @ SEA Sun 4:25 | 4900 | 6400 |
I'm adding Thielen to the Playbook as we want to make sure you get a slice of this game in some fashion or another. The 51.5 over/under is the highest on the slate and both teams have an implied total of 25 points or more this week. Thielen has definitely been a disappointment this season, but we do see strong flashes still here and there, such as the last time he faced the Lions and came away with six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. A repeat of those numbers will easily pay off his salary and should help you with some added salary relief if you are stacking Vikings and can't afford Jefferson. Game Type: GPP Weather: Low winds, cloudy skies, and temps in the low 40's. It's also Seattle so we can't rule out the possibility of some pop-up showers. | ||||
WR | Ja'Marr Chase | CLE @ CIN Sun 1:00 | 7900 | 8700 |
Chase returned last week to collect seven catches on eight targets for 97 yards and while he failed to find the end zone, it was clear that the connection between him and Joe Burrow was not lost at all. He is one of those wideouts who transcends match-ups so worrying about who is in the Cleveland secondary is pointless. It just so happens to be that he matches up beautifully against everyone in the Browns secondary so expect him to be leaned on heavily and have a game reminiscent of why we love stacking Burrow and Chase. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy skies with temps in the low 40's with very low winds. | ||||
WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | MIN @ DET Sun 1:00 | 7800 | 8600 |
The price is getting to a spot which may make some feel a bit uncomfortable, but after back-to-back 100-yard games with three touchdowns, you knew the inflation was going to get ugly. But is there any reason not to put him into your lineups, especially with the way he's ben playing and how soft this match-up against a weak Minnesota secondary is? Not only have the Vikings allowed the most passing yards per game over the last three weeks, but they also rank 29th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver. If you are spending up at receiver, this is a killer play. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | DJ Chark | MIA @ LAC Sun 8:20 | 4300 | 5700 |
There is some fear that the Lions increase the snap count for Jameson Williams this week, but not so much that we are worried about Chark losing his value. Again, the Minnesota defense has allowed the most passing yards per game over the last three weeks and, now that he is healthy, Chark should continue to see the half-dozen targets he's averaged over the six games he's played. He found the end zone two weeks ago against Buffalo and last week he grabbed five balls for 98 yards. He should be able to put the two performances together and post a strong day at a nicely discounted price. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | Chris Godwin | TB @ SF Sun 4:25 | 6700 | 7500 |
Godwin has had three strong efforts recently, catching 26 passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns (it should have been more yards and three scores had it not been for a lame holding call on Monday night) and remains the most-targeted receiver on the Bucs. He's actually had double-digit targets in six of his last seven games and gets a surprisingly strong match-up this week as the 49ers routinely struggle against slot receivers. With how quickly Tom Brady can get rid of the ball, the pass-rush might not be too much of an issue and the passes should get Godwin running with the ball out in space. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the low 50's with the possibility of some very light rain and low winds. | ||||
WR | Tyler Lockett | CAR @ SEA Sun 4:25 | 6500 | 7700 |
We've spent so much time fixating on Geno SMith's shoulder, Kenneth Walker's ankle and DK Metcalf's hip that we haven't spent nearly enough time discussing Lockett's streak of five-straight games with a touchdown. Over that span, Lockett has averaged seven targets per game and has turned them into an average of five catches for 73.6 yards and one touchdown. That's a pretty unbelievable average when you think about it and now with Metcalf banged-up and a shaky ground game, it would appear as if Lockett is primed for another stellar effort. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Low winds, cloudy skies, and temps in the low 40's. It's also Seattle so we can't rule out the possibility of some pop-up showers. | ||||
WR | Garrett Wilson | NYJ @ BUF Sun 1:00 | 5900 | 7200 |
I dismissed Wilson on the podcast, but am back-tracking here and adding Wilson to the final Playbook. No, I do not have differing feelings on Mike White, but the fact remains that he is going to have to throw the ball at some point and if he racks up 200 yards, the majority of them are likely going to be to Wilson. He's seen 23 targets over the last two games and has turned them into 13 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns. It's going to be a tough match-up for him with Tre'Davious White and Jordan Poyer healthy, but we're wiling to take the chance. On Draft Kings, that is. The FanDuel price is a little too steep for me so I will avoid him over there. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: A mix of rain and snow in the forecast with winds ranging from 8-12mph. | ||||
WR | DJ Moore | 5500 | 6900 | |
Two weeks ago, during Sam Darnold's season debut, Moore caught 4-of-6 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown against a very tough Denver secondary. This week, he'll face a Seattle secondary that has shown some improvement but is still allowing 227.7 passing yards per game this season with 18 touchdowns through the air. If the Panthers can get that ground game working with D'Onta Foreman, things should open up nicely for Darnold to find Moore downfield, just as he did two weeks ago. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
WR | Zay Jones | NE @ ARI Mon 8:15 | 4700 | 6300 |
The always predictable masses will be all over Christian Kirk this week because of his strong performance and a quiet day for Jones and that's exactly what we want for GPP tournaments. Jones' price is extremely affordable and the Titans actually rank 30th in DVOA against the opposing WR2. So long as Trevor Lawrence's foot is ok and he's under center without limitations, I'm in for Jones this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
WR | Donovan Peoples-Jones | MIN @ DET Sun 1:00 | 4900 | 6100 |
Tough to trust any Cleveland receiver given the way Deshaun Watson looked last week, but we know that it is a steady process and we aren't going to be giving up on this Browns passing attack at all. I'm not ready to commit to Watson outside of maybe a GPP dart throw, but I will look to People's-Jones even in cash games, especially with Amari Cooper being banged-up and potentially limited. DPJ only saw three targets last week but racked up 44 yards and should be targeted more this week, given the match-up. If you are in need of some salary relief, he's probably going to help. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
WR | Phillip Dorsett | KC @ DEN Sun 4:05 | 3000 | 4900 |
With both Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins out for this week's game, we have to look to Dorsett as a value play this week. We've tried using him before and haven't seen much outside of one touchdown catch back in Week 7 against the Raiders, but this game has garbage-time written all over it. Who else are the Texans going to use as offensive weapons this week? If you want to throw a dart at Amari Rodgers, go ahead, but Dorsett is the guy who sees the snaps and targets when one of the top two wideouts are out. The Cowboys defense will likely take its foot off the gas in the second half, leaving Davis Mills to chuck the ball downfield against back-up corners. Game Type: GPP Weather: Temps in the low 50's with cloudy skies and low winds. | ||||
TE | Travis Kelce | KC @ DEN Sun 4:05 | 7600 | 8000 |
I am well aware that Denver's No. 5 DVOA rank against the tight end makes it seem like a tough match-up, but we have seen Denver struggle against the position in the past and while the receiving yard totals are low, we know exactly what Kelce is capable of with the ball in his hands. The price has dipped a tad, but not enough to make it easy to cram him into our cash lineups. We might have to leave him as GPP only eventually but we'll see about that as we get further into our builds. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the low 50's with cloudy skies and low winds. | ||||
TE | Mark Andrews | BAL @ PIT Sun 1:00 | 6500 | 6800 |
He is the most-reliable target Tyler Huntley has and we expect the two to connect throughout this game. The Steelers may rank 10th in DVOA against the tight end, but they are allowing an average of 50.7 receiving yards per game to them and they're allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game. The numbers aren't exactly eye-popping, but Andrews is still the second-best tight end in the game and always deserves consideration if you can't pay up for Kelce. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy/Overcast skies with temps in the low 40's, but winds will be light. | ||||
TE | T.J. Hockenson | MIN @ DET Sun 1:00 | 5100 | 6500 |
He just might be the best tight end to use on this slate, so long as you have the budget to spend up and you aren't punting the position. Hockenson has averaged eight targets per game since arriving from Detroit (you got it, revenge-game) and while he's only found the end zone once, he's been putting up strong PPR totals for such a trashy position. Probably also helps that the Lions are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
TE | George Kittle | TB @ SF Sun 4:25 | 4300 | 5900 |
The Bucs are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game against the tight end and were just recently victimized by Taysom Hill on a 30-yard strike on Monday night. With both Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards doubtful again, this could be a field day for Kittle who needs to be incorporated into the passing attack more. We'll monitor the health of Deebo Samuel as well, but Brock Purdy, like most inexperienced quarterbacks, will probably lean on his tight end a little more than usual. Game Type: GPP Weather: Temps in the low 50's with the possibility of some very light rain and low winds. | ||||
TE | Greg Dulcich | PHI @ NYG Sun 1:00 | 3400 | 5400 |
I am very leery of using anyone from the Denver Broncos, but if you can't afford the top four tight ends I've given you, then you can use Dulcich if you like. Courtland Sutton is out, so the targets are going to have to land somewhere. Last week, Dulcich saw eight targets which he turned into six catches for 85 yards, so that, and the fact that the Chiefs rank 20th in DVOA against the tight end, are encouraging. Game Type: GPP Weather: Temps in the high 30's with a little rain, but nothing terrible as of Sunday morning. Winds likely stay below 10mph. | ||||
TE | Austin Hooper | NE @ ARI Mon 8:15 | 2900 | 4900 |
The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the tight end and we should see Hopper targeted often in this match-up, especially if Treylon Burks is out. Jacksonville is allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position and this price tag might be too tough to pass up, especially if you plan to punt the position. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
DST | Dallas Cowboys | HOU @ DAL Sun 1:00 | 3800 | 5200 |
Pretty tough to not want to pay up for a defense when you have a match-up like this. The Texans, who are third in the league in giveaways with 20, are putting Davis Mills back under center and while that may be a better choice than Kyle Allen overall, the turnovers are still going to remain prevalent. The Cowboys are an extremely opportunistic team regarding turnovers and have the second-most takeaways also lead the league with 48 sacks on the year. This one is gonna get ugly. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
DST | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI @ NYG Sun 1:00 | 3700 | 4700 |
With concerns that a questionable Saquon Barkley will be held out this week, the Eagles defense is in a prime spot as the Giants really don't have very many weapons of which to boast. The Eagles pass-rush, even without Robert Quinn, is second in the league with 42 sacks on the season and the defense, on the whole, leads the league with 23 takeaways. The Giants have just 12 giveaways on the season, but they are going to have their difficulties moving the ball downfield against this defensive unit. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the high 30's with a little rain, but nothing terrible as of Sunday morning. Winds likely stay below 10mph. | ||||
DST | Tennessee Titans | JAC @ TEN Sun 1:00 | 3400 | 4200 |
People have been selling the Titans defense short for some time now and few have noticed that they have allowed just 16.6 points per game over their five home games this season. The Jaguars have shown marked improvement from last season but we've also watched them struggle mightily against defenses softer than that of the Titans. Remember last week against Detroit? The Titans have the eighth-most sacks in the league and while they only have 13 takeaways, the Jags do have 15 giveaways and Trevor Lawrence is not at 100-percent. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Overcast skies with temps in the high 40's and low winds. | ||||
DST | Baltimore Ravens | BAL @ PIT Sun 1:00 | 3300 | 4100 |
Give Kenny Pickett credit – he hasn't had a single turnover in his last four games and the Steelers are playing some inspired ball. But this Ravens defense looks strong and even if we're concerned about Patrick Queen's status, the addition of Roquan Smith gives the Ravens one of the toughest linebacker corps in the league. That will complicate things for Pickett finding Pat Freiermuth across the middle and leave him to try and hit his receivers on the outside. Baltimore has the third-most takeaways this season so if/when Pickett makes a mistake, they will be there to capitalize. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy/Overcast skies with temps in the low 40's, but winds will be light. | ||||
DST | Pittsburgh Steelers | BAL @ PIT Sun 1:00 | 2800 | 3800 |
We've been rising the Steelers defense for a few weeks now and the sites have not caught up yet. Granted, they only produced four points last week, but when you have T.J. Watt disrupting everything in the opponent's backfield and a secondary that is clamping down on some of the best receivers in the game, you need to pay attention. With Tyler Huntley making his first official start this week, we'll expect some mistakes to be made and we're here for when the Steeler's take advantage. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy/Overcast skies with temps in the low 40's, but winds will be light. |
Josh Allen, QB | ||||
Allen's last three games have yielded fantasy point totals far less exciting than what he was doing in the beginning of the year, but Allen is still one of the safest cash-game quarterbacks in DFS. He did struggle through the air the last time he faced the Jets and weather was a factor, but he also rushed for 86 yards and two touchdowns, so that nice high-floor kept him above the 25 fantasy-point threshold we need from our quarterback in cash games. He's got the weapons he needs and the addition of James Cook to the rushing attack actually helps open things up more for Allen. Paying up at QB can make it tougher to build strong cash lineups, but we've done it before and we can do it again. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: A mix of rain and snow in the forecast with winds ranging from 8-12mph. | ||||
Jalen Hurts, QB | ||||
Hurts is probably one of the safest picks for the week as the Giants defense ranks 27th in DVOA against both the pass and the run. You're not going to see another 380-yard, three-touchdown performance, but you should see a nice balanced stat line as we expect him to do a lot more running given the Giants pass-rush. His floor makes him a fantastic cash game play, but, as you saw last week, there is definite GPP upside no matter who he faces. Keep in mind that we are hearing Saquon Barkley could be held out and if that's the case, the Giants may not be keeping this game as competitive as we originally hoped. Hurts is still viable, but might lean towards cash only. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the high 30's with a little rain, but nothing terrible as of Sunday morning. Winds likely stay below 10mph. | ||||
Joe Burrow, QB | ||||
Swaggy Joe is ready to roll as he's built up some serious momentum over the past few weeks. Since the Bengals Week 10 bye, Burrow has averaged 36 pass attempts and 304 passing yards per game while posting a 7:2 TD:INT over that span. He's got his favorite receiving weapon back and the Browns, who rank 20th in DVOA against the pass, are allowing an average of 214.8 passing yards per game with 17 touchdowns allowed through the air. With a little redemption on the line following their last loss to the Browns, you can expect a strong effort as the Bengals look to take over first place in the AFC North. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy skies with temps in the low 40's with very low winds. | ||||
Geno Smith, QB | ||||
I won't lie – seeing Geno Smith pop up on the NFL injury report from Thursday to Friday made me nervous because I love this match-up for him. Now that we are hearing he is off the injury report completely, we can go back to building some lineups with him under center. The Panthers are only allowing an average of 212.5 passing yards but have given up 15 touchdowns through the air this season. While the Seahawks are a run-first team, injuries to Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas will likely push Travis Homer into the lead back position and that might push offensive coordinator Shane Waldron into using Smith's arm more. Sam Darnold under center for Carolina actually gives them a little more offensive firepower, so these teams could start trading points late which certainly works for us. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Low winds, cloudy skies, and temps in the low 40's. It's also Seattle so we can't rule out the possibility of some pop-up showers. | ||||
Kirk Cousins, QB | ||||
No one is giving the Vikings the respect they deserve right now and that's exactly how Cousins likes it. He may crumble in prime-time, but we've seen him thrive when he and is team are disrespected in any way – like being 10-2 and a two-point underdog against the Lions. The first time Cousins faced them, he was solid, but not what you would call efficient as he posted just a 54-percent completion rate. He did throw for 260 yards and two touchdowns without an interception but there were definite struggles in the wake of his favorite target, Justin Jefferson, being shut down by Lions corner Jeffrey Okudah. That should be another intriguing match-up to watch, but look for Jefferson to edge out Okudah and for Cousins to utilize his other weapons, most notably his new tight end who appears to be a favorite target these days. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
Jared Goff, QB | ||||
In his earlier match-up against the Vikings, Goff threw for 277 yards with one touchdown and one interceptions. Not eye-popping numbers but decent enough to give you confidence in using Goff as a respectable pay-down even in a cash game format. The Vikings have actually allowed the most receiving yards per game over the last three weeks (345.7) and have really struggled with injuries in the secondary. Harrison Smith is a man alone on an island over there these days. The Lions will always be a run-first team, but this passing attack should open up nicely in what is expected to be a back-and-forth shootout. And remember, Goff is at home here, so if you're into the home-road splits, this tilts the advantage towards Goff. Also, the 51.5 over/under may have come down a little, but is still the highest on total this slate. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Tyler Huntley, QB | ||||
If you're building multiple lineups and don't like the pay-down to Goff, you could use Huntley against the Steelers this week and see about getting some of that rushing yard upside everyone is talking about. The Steelers haven't faced many mobile quarterbacks, but if you're keeping score, they're 1-2 against them. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts both picked them apart but they managed to limit Marcus Mariota to just 167 passing yards and just 17 rushing yards. We think Huntley probably sits somewhere between the Allen/Hurts level and the Mariota level, so we're expecting a decent day to pay off this salary. He threw for 187 yards and ran for 41 last week in relief of Lamar Jackson and last year, while filling in for Jackson for five games, he averaged 208.4 passing yards and 56.8 rushing yards. He only threw for three touchdowns but he ran two more in on his own. The Steelers defense has shown improvement, but Huntley doesn't exactly need to be a world-beater to offer up value. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Derrick Henry, RB | ||||
Yes, it's been a rough few weeks for Henry as teams have been stacking the box like crazy and in his last two games, the opponents have put up enough points to have even Mike Vrabel give up on the run. We don't see that happening this week against the Jaguars who are allowing 113.6 rushing yards per game with 12 rushing touchdowns allowed on the season. And over the last three games, they've allowed 139.0 rushing yards per game so they're getting softer. Over his last six games against the Jags, Henry has averaged 22 carries for 145 yards per game with 12 touchdowns in that span. His price tag and recent showings may make him more of a GPP play than cash, especially if we are looking to pay up elsewhere. But I've built some intriguing GPP lineups with him in there and the results could be glorious. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy/Overcast skies with temps in the low 40's, but winds will be light. | ||||
Joe Mixon, RB | ||||
With full clearance via the league's concussion protocol and a full week of practice under his belt, Mixon is ready to take on the Browns this week and we love him in this match-up. Cleveland ranks 31st in DVOA against the run and they've allowed 127.4 rushing yards per game this season with 16 rushing touchdowns allowed. Yes, the Bengals are routinely about Joe Burrow and his receiving weapons, but we expect the Bengals to attack with Mixon early and try to reassert themselves as the dominant force in the AFC North. The last time these teams faced each other, Cleveland manhandled them, but having Chase running around the defensive backfield changes an awful lot this week. People may be scared off from Mixon because they expect Samaje Perine to continue getting significant work, but we know Zac Taylor wants his main guy in there as much as possible. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Ezekiel Elliott, RB | ||||
We are going to group the analysis for Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott together as we believe, in this match-up against the Texans, both running backs are strong plays for both cash games and GPP tournaments. So much so that Jon Impemba and I discussed using both of them in the same lineup on this week's NFL DFS Podcast. We believe you can and maybe even should for your cash game play. You need them to combine for roughly 30 fantasy points in cash games and over the last three weeks, the two have combined for over 40 points which puts us right where we need/want them. We all know how bad the Texans run defense is, allowing almost 170 rushing yards per game and giving up 15 rushing touchdowns on the year, so we don't really need to dive in too deep. With the 17-point spread favoring the Cowboys, we expect a heavy ground attack, so the only thing really standing in our way is Mike McCarthy becoming possessed by the stupidity of Kevin Stefanski and they decide to try a heavier passing game. He couldn't possibly, could he? Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Tony Pollard, RB | ||||
Obviously the price differential between Zeke and Pollard comes down to the DFS sit you play on and its scoring format. Pollard costs more on DraftKings due to his pass-catching work while Zeke is pricier on FanDuel and its half-point PPR scoring. Houston ranks 15th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, but that is more about his teams just run straight at them. Again, we believe you can use either or both on both sites, so if you opt not to use them together, you should probably just go with the cheaper of the two and use the extra money for receivers. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Overcast skies with temps in the high 40's and low winds. | ||||
Miles Sanders, RB | ||||
The Giants just gave up over 160 rushing yards to the Washington backfield and have now allowed 164.7 rushing yards per game over their last three which is the fifth-most in the NFL during that span. But what I love the most is how Sanders flies so far under the radar each week. He only had 24 yards on 10 carries this past week, but the attention all fell on A.J. Brown in his revenge-game and Sanders still managed to find the end zone. He is still averaging almost 16 carries per game and his nine rushing touchdowns are nine more than he had all of last year. Best of all is this price tag. Feel like I'm going to lock him into a number of my lineups this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Low winds, cloudy skies, and temps in the low 40's. It's also Seattle so we can't rule out the possibility of some pop-up showers. | ||||
D'Andre Swift, RB | ||||
If you caught the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba, you know we spent some time really breaking down this backfield and yet we still remain on opposite sides of the fence. Jon believes that Swift is taking control of this backfield now that he is healthy and I stand by the belief that Jamaal Williams is still very much an active player in this offensive scheme and will always be someone Dan Campbell leans on. Yes, Swift saw a 51-perent snap share last week, his highest since the first time he returned from injury, but as I asked on the podcast, was that about the match-up or is it a sudden, new trend because we are told that he's healthy? We aren't going to use either guy in a cash lineup because of the uncertain nature, but I do believe you can use either in a GPP tournament, depending on what you think this backfield split is all about. If you are on Team Swift and you think he dominates the touches, then you should get him into your lineups. Game Type: GPP | ||||
Jamaal Williams, RB | ||||
If you believe that Williams maintains his touches and continues to see work between the 20s as well as the majority of the goal-line work, then he's probably the guy you're going to want to use, especially on FanDuel. The Vikings have allowed an average of 115.1 rushing yards per game with 13 rushing touchdowns allowed and Williams will be the guy Campbell rides, especially if he is looking to control the clock in this one. Again, I believe both can be viable GPP running backs used for this week and maybe we get a little more clarity this week to determine which way we lean in the future. Game Type: GPP | ||||
D'Onta Foreman, RB | ||||
The Panthers are well-rested coming off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for the Seahawks. Watching Cam Akers rush for 60 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle last week had to be pretty encouraging and knowing that they allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs probably has Carolina salivating over the match-up. Since the trade of Christian McCaffrey, Foreman has been a beast in this backfield, averaging 19 carries per game with four 100-yard efforts and four touchdowns over a six-game span. With a halfway respectable passing threat under center, the Seahawks won't be able to just stack the box this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy skies with temps in the low 40's with very low winds. | ||||
Travis Homer, RB | ||||
Homer was a late add to the DFS Watch List as we've been tracking the health of this entire Seahawks backfield and while both Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas are listed as questionable, neither were able to practice at all Wednesday through Friday. That doesn't bode well for their participation Sunday, but we still have to wait and see and with the Seahawks game not being played until 4:25pm ET, we are going to have to do some serious lineup manipulation at the last minute should Walker suddenly be able to play. Dallas doesn't really matter. We can still use Homer even if Dallas plays, but if Walker is available, this play is cooked. If not, then we are getting a spectacular bargain against a Panthers team that ranks 22nd in DVOA against the run and has allowed an average of 135.7 rushing yards per game this season with a total of 13 rushing touchdowns allowed. Hate to root against a guy like Walker, but fingers-crossed we get Homer at this discounted price. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
Justin Jefferson, WR | ||||
While the price tag might push you more towards GPP tournament lineups, I have nothing but the utmost of confidence in Jefferson to atone for his poor showing against Jeffrey Okudah back in Week 3. The guy has seven 100-yard efforts this season including two in his last four games and he's found the end zone in four of his last five. You don't need us to tell you he is a top star and a must for lineups no matter what the match-up, but just in case you need a reminder this week, we've got you covered. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Adam Thielen, WR | ||||
I'm adding Thielen to the Playbook as we want to make sure you get a slice of this game in some fashion or another. The 51.5 over/under is the highest on the slate and both teams have an implied total of 25 points or more this week. Thielen has definitely been a disappointment this season, but we do see strong flashes still here and there, such as the last time he faced the Lions and came away with six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. A repeat of those numbers will easily pay off his salary and should help you with some added salary relief if you are stacking Vikings and can't afford Jefferson. Game Type: GPP Weather: Low winds, cloudy skies, and temps in the low 40's. It's also Seattle so we can't rule out the possibility of some pop-up showers. | ||||
Ja'Marr Chase, WR | ||||
Chase returned last week to collect seven catches on eight targets for 97 yards and while he failed to find the end zone, it was clear that the connection between him and Joe Burrow was not lost at all. He is one of those wideouts who transcends match-ups so worrying about who is in the Cleveland secondary is pointless. It just so happens to be that he matches up beautifully against everyone in the Browns secondary so expect him to be leaned on heavily and have a game reminiscent of why we love stacking Burrow and Chase. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy skies with temps in the low 40's with very low winds. | ||||
The price is getting to a spot which may make some feel a bit uncomfortable, but after back-to-back 100-yard games with three touchdowns, you knew the inflation was going to get ugly. But is there any reason not to put him into your lineups, especially with the way he's ben playing and how soft this match-up against a weak Minnesota secondary is? Not only have the Vikings allowed the most passing yards per game over the last three weeks, but they also rank 29th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver. If you are spending up at receiver, this is a killer play. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
DJ Chark, WR | ||||
There is some fear that the Lions increase the snap count for Jameson Williams this week, but not so much that we are worried about Chark losing his value. Again, the Minnesota defense has allowed the most passing yards per game over the last three weeks and, now that he is healthy, Chark should continue to see the half-dozen targets he's averaged over the six games he's played. He found the end zone two weeks ago against Buffalo and last week he grabbed five balls for 98 yards. He should be able to put the two performances together and post a strong day at a nicely discounted price. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Chris Godwin, WR | ||||
Godwin has had three strong efforts recently, catching 26 passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns (it should have been more yards and three scores had it not been for a lame holding call on Monday night) and remains the most-targeted receiver on the Bucs. He's actually had double-digit targets in six of his last seven games and gets a surprisingly strong match-up this week as the 49ers routinely struggle against slot receivers. With how quickly Tom Brady can get rid of the ball, the pass-rush might not be too much of an issue and the passes should get Godwin running with the ball out in space. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the low 50's with the possibility of some very light rain and low winds. | ||||
Tyler Lockett, WR | ||||
We've spent so much time fixating on Geno SMith's shoulder, Kenneth Walker's ankle and DK Metcalf's hip that we haven't spent nearly enough time discussing Lockett's streak of five-straight games with a touchdown. Over that span, Lockett has averaged seven targets per game and has turned them into an average of five catches for 73.6 yards and one touchdown. That's a pretty unbelievable average when you think about it and now with Metcalf banged-up and a shaky ground game, it would appear as if Lockett is primed for another stellar effort. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Low winds, cloudy skies, and temps in the low 40's. It's also Seattle so we can't rule out the possibility of some pop-up showers. | ||||
Garrett Wilson, WR | ||||
I dismissed Wilson on the podcast, but am back-tracking here and adding Wilson to the final Playbook. No, I do not have differing feelings on Mike White, but the fact remains that he is going to have to throw the ball at some point and if he racks up 200 yards, the majority of them are likely going to be to Wilson. He's seen 23 targets over the last two games and has turned them into 13 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns. It's going to be a tough match-up for him with Tre'Davious White and Jordan Poyer healthy, but we're wiling to take the chance. On Draft Kings, that is. The FanDuel price is a little too steep for me so I will avoid him over there. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: A mix of rain and snow in the forecast with winds ranging from 8-12mph. | ||||
DJ Moore, WR | ||||
Two weeks ago, during Sam Darnold's season debut, Moore caught 4-of-6 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown against a very tough Denver secondary. This week, he'll face a Seattle secondary that has shown some improvement but is still allowing 227.7 passing yards per game this season with 18 touchdowns through the air. If the Panthers can get that ground game working with D'Onta Foreman, things should open up nicely for Darnold to find Moore downfield, just as he did two weeks ago. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
Zay Jones, WR | ||||
The always predictable masses will be all over Christian Kirk this week because of his strong performance and a quiet day for Jones and that's exactly what we want for GPP tournaments. Jones' price is extremely affordable and the Titans actually rank 30th in DVOA against the opposing WR2. So long as Trevor Lawrence's foot is ok and he's under center without limitations, I'm in for Jones this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
Tough to trust any Cleveland receiver given the way Deshaun Watson looked last week, but we know that it is a steady process and we aren't going to be giving up on this Browns passing attack at all. I'm not ready to commit to Watson outside of maybe a GPP dart throw, but I will look to People's-Jones even in cash games, especially with Amari Cooper being banged-up and potentially limited. DPJ only saw three targets last week but racked up 44 yards and should be targeted more this week, given the match-up. If you are in need of some salary relief, he's probably going to help. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Phillip Dorsett, WR | ||||
With both Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins out for this week's game, we have to look to Dorsett as a value play this week. We've tried using him before and haven't seen much outside of one touchdown catch back in Week 7 against the Raiders, but this game has garbage-time written all over it. Who else are the Texans going to use as offensive weapons this week? If you want to throw a dart at Amari Rodgers, go ahead, but Dorsett is the guy who sees the snaps and targets when one of the top two wideouts are out. The Cowboys defense will likely take its foot off the gas in the second half, leaving Davis Mills to chuck the ball downfield against back-up corners. Game Type: GPP Weather: Temps in the low 50's with cloudy skies and low winds. | ||||
Travis Kelce, TE | ||||
I am well aware that Denver's No. 5 DVOA rank against the tight end makes it seem like a tough match-up, but we have seen Denver struggle against the position in the past and while the receiving yard totals are low, we know exactly what Kelce is capable of with the ball in his hands. The price has dipped a tad, but not enough to make it easy to cram him into our cash lineups. We might have to leave him as GPP only eventually but we'll see about that as we get further into our builds. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the low 50's with cloudy skies and low winds. | ||||
Mark Andrews, TE | ||||
He is the most-reliable target Tyler Huntley has and we expect the two to connect throughout this game. The Steelers may rank 10th in DVOA against the tight end, but they are allowing an average of 50.7 receiving yards per game to them and they're allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game. The numbers aren't exactly eye-popping, but Andrews is still the second-best tight end in the game and always deserves consideration if you can't pay up for Kelce. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy/Overcast skies with temps in the low 40's, but winds will be light. | ||||
T.J. Hockenson, TE | ||||
He just might be the best tight end to use on this slate, so long as you have the budget to spend up and you aren't punting the position. Hockenson has averaged eight targets per game since arriving from Detroit (you got it, revenge-game) and while he's only found the end zone once, he's been putting up strong PPR totals for such a trashy position. Probably also helps that the Lions are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
George Kittle, TE | ||||
The Bucs are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game against the tight end and were just recently victimized by Taysom Hill on a 30-yard strike on Monday night. With both Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards doubtful again, this could be a field day for Kittle who needs to be incorporated into the passing attack more. We'll monitor the health of Deebo Samuel as well, but Brock Purdy, like most inexperienced quarterbacks, will probably lean on his tight end a little more than usual. Game Type: GPP Weather: Temps in the low 50's with the possibility of some very light rain and low winds. | ||||
Greg Dulcich, TE | ||||
I am very leery of using anyone from the Denver Broncos, but if you can't afford the top four tight ends I've given you, then you can use Dulcich if you like. Courtland Sutton is out, so the targets are going to have to land somewhere. Last week, Dulcich saw eight targets which he turned into six catches for 85 yards, so that, and the fact that the Chiefs rank 20th in DVOA against the tight end, are encouraging. Game Type: GPP Weather: Temps in the high 30's with a little rain, but nothing terrible as of Sunday morning. Winds likely stay below 10mph. | ||||
Austin Hooper, TE | ||||
The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the tight end and we should see Hopper targeted often in this match-up, especially if Treylon Burks is out. Jacksonville is allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position and this price tag might be too tough to pass up, especially if you plan to punt the position. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
Dallas Cowboys, DST | ||||
Pretty tough to not want to pay up for a defense when you have a match-up like this. The Texans, who are third in the league in giveaways with 20, are putting Davis Mills back under center and while that may be a better choice than Kyle Allen overall, the turnovers are still going to remain prevalent. The Cowboys are an extremely opportunistic team regarding turnovers and have the second-most takeaways also lead the league with 48 sacks on the year. This one is gonna get ugly. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: This game will be played indoors. | ||||
Philadelphia Eagles, DST | ||||
With concerns that a questionable Saquon Barkley will be held out this week, the Eagles defense is in a prime spot as the Giants really don't have very many weapons of which to boast. The Eagles pass-rush, even without Robert Quinn, is second in the league with 42 sacks on the season and the defense, on the whole, leads the league with 23 takeaways. The Giants have just 12 giveaways on the season, but they are going to have their difficulties moving the ball downfield against this defensive unit. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Temps in the high 30's with a little rain, but nothing terrible as of Sunday morning. Winds likely stay below 10mph. | ||||
Tennessee Titans, DST | ||||
People have been selling the Titans defense short for some time now and few have noticed that they have allowed just 16.6 points per game over their five home games this season. The Jaguars have shown marked improvement from last season but we've also watched them struggle mightily against defenses softer than that of the Titans. Remember last week against Detroit? The Titans have the eighth-most sacks in the league and while they only have 13 takeaways, the Jags do have 15 giveaways and Trevor Lawrence is not at 100-percent. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Overcast skies with temps in the high 40's and low winds. | ||||
Baltimore Ravens, DST | ||||
Give Kenny Pickett credit – he hasn't had a single turnover in his last four games and the Steelers are playing some inspired ball. But this Ravens defense looks strong and even if we're concerned about Patrick Queen's status, the addition of Roquan Smith gives the Ravens one of the toughest linebacker corps in the league. That will complicate things for Pickett finding Pat Freiermuth across the middle and leave him to try and hit his receivers on the outside. Baltimore has the third-most takeaways this season so if/when Pickett makes a mistake, they will be there to capitalize. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy/Overcast skies with temps in the low 40's, but winds will be light. | ||||
Pittsburgh Steelers, DST | ||||
We've been rising the Steelers defense for a few weeks now and the sites have not caught up yet. Granted, they only produced four points last week, but when you have T.J. Watt disrupting everything in the opponent's backfield and a secondary that is clamping down on some of the best receivers in the game, you need to pay attention. With Tyler Huntley making his first official start this week, we'll expect some mistakes to be made and we're here for when the Steeler's take advantage. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy/Overcast skies with temps in the low 40's, but winds will be light. |