NFL DFS Week 13 Playbook: Top DraftKings & Top FanDuel Picks

I don't want to start off lamenting over my pivot from Hurts to Patrick Mahomes once again, but it definitely still stings and we will NOT be making the same mistake twice, even with more rain in the forecast. We all saw how that turned out for us. The 49ers defense is definitely better than that of the Bills, but we know Hurts has a significantly higher floor than most thanks to the tush-push and we've also identified various holes in the San Francisco secondary over the last several weeks. The key will be how the offensive line withstands the 49ers pass-rush, but even if they falter, we can make lemonade out of lemons and enjoy the increase in rushing yards from Hurts who will have no problem taking off should Nick Bosa and Chase Young find their way into the backfield. 

It has been an unbelievable run for Stroud who has averaged 366.5 passing yards per game with a 10: TD:INT over his last four and all signs continue to point up for him in what will be his third-straight home game. He's been sleeping in his own bed for three weeks, no hassles, no travels and that settles a player in well. He'll face a much-improved Denver defense this week, a defense that has held the opposition to just 16.5 points per game over their last six. But that doesn't shake me from this play. This is one of those moments where the public is clamoring about Denver's playoff chances and how they've won five in a row. And how the Texans lost a heartbreaker to Jacksonville. This is where Stroud shines.

This should be a pretty obvious play and you can expect to see a boatload of Tua-Tyreek stacks this week. It's no secret the Washington Commanders have a terrible defense and struggle to stop both the run and the pass. But what we also have is Sam Howell who slings it 40 times per game no matter what happens, so if Miami's defense falters even a little bit, Tua stays throwing. It also helps to see this game with a 49.5 total, highest on the slate. The total may have dropped a point over the past few days, but with the way this offense has been rolling this season, it's difficult to see them being the reason the total has dipped.

Two weeks ago, the Eagles got away with one because Patrick Mahomes' pass-catchers let him down. Last week, though the Bills lost, Josh Allen shredded the Eagles defense. Now you get one of the most efficient quarterbacks with elite weapons in a system that does nothing but score points and you've got Purdy as a fantastic mid-tier price. There's going to be a lot of paying up for exposure to that Miami offense but you can make sure that's Tyreek by paying down here.

We all expect the Miami Dolphins to dominate this game, but that never stops Howell from throwing 40-plus time every game. And that's where we'll make our money from him this week as we expect a heavy aerial attack throughout the second half off this game. The match-up between Jalen Ramsey and Terry McLaurin should be interesting to watch, but Howell will have no problem finding the rest of his weapons downfield, especially when the Dolphins take their foot off the gas. He probably works better as a GPP option for me, but if you really need to pay down in cash, you can probably use him as, again, you know he's throwing a ton.

Minshew isn't anything flashy, but he can produce solid numbers with his rushing upside. And by that I mean he likes to poach rushing touchdowns, something we could see even more of with Jonathan Taylor potentially missing this game. If he can find the end zone through the air and can run one in on his own, he immediately provides value. We all know the Titans secondary is their Achilles heel, so look for Minshew to hook up with Michael Pittman and Josh Downs often.

I had a nice discussion with Jim Bowden on Friday's Fantasy Alarm Show regarding Kamara and while I worry about the price tag being a bit too high for my liking, I do expect him to pay off his salary thanks to the heavy passing work we expect. With the receiving corps banged up, I expect to see a number of check-downs and designed screens to get Kamara the ball while running out in space. He hasn't found the end zone in three weeks, so those of you who like the “he's due” narrative, you can jump on that, but for me, the points are in the receptions this week. With a game total of 47, it looks as if this game could turn into a battle and if the Saints are going to stay in it and get the upset at home, Kamara is going to need to be a big part of the game plan.

With the return of De'Von Achane, I am only looking at Mostert as a contrarian GPP play right now. We'll look at how the DFS Ownership projections shake out during our Saturday update, but something tells me the masses are going to hop back onto the Achane Train because of the FOMO from not having him in their lineups. It's really as simple as that – game theory. Everyone loves him and everyone is waiting for another explosive output, so just like they did two weeks ago, they will flock to him. For me, it's Mostert as he's been the stalwart all season long and with his removal from the injury report, we know he's going to be leaned on once again. This Washington run defense has struggled mightily since the loss of Montez Sweat and Chase Young, so if you are looking for a slice of this Miami offense without paying all the way up for Tyreek, this is the way.

We aren't big fans of the offensive line and Mike Vrabel still likes putting the ball in the hands of Will Levis despite all of his struggles in recent weeks, but Henry is still the lead back and Vrabel knows he won't open up anything for Levis without establishing the run first. Last week, Henry totaled 76 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries and gets an equally soft match-up here against the Colts. We've targeted against Indianapolis with the run before as they allow the seventh-most rushing yards per game, they've given up 15 rushing touchdowns on the season and let Shaq Leonard go. Henry should be an effective runner this week.

He made it look so effortless last week against the Saints, that you would have to think, while competing for the division, Arthur Smith will at least maintain the workload against a Jets run defense that ranks 17th in DVOA against the run and allows the second-most rushing yards per game. If you look at Tyler Allgeier's game log from last year, we see a heavier lean on the run towards the tail-end of the season, so here's hoping he doesn't screw us by deviating from the plan. This is a fantastic spot for Bijan. Smith just needs to feed him the ball.

I've made it clear that I do not like what's going on with my Jets right now, but I have to remove my biases and look at this match-up as objectively as possible. Yes, the offensive line is in shambles and his yardage output over the last several weeks has been less than desirable, but he's still an active part of this passing game and with Tim Boyle still under center, we expect this part of his game to continue. It also helps that this Falcons defense has allowed an average of 141.3 rushing yards per game with three rushing touchdowns over their last four games. The DK price is about right given the pass-catching but that FD price is just way too low and getting him in as a possible third RB  in your lineup should prove fruitful.

We got a major scare last week when White showed up on the injury report late on Friday, but apparently it was just the Bucs trying to comply with the injury reporting rules. In the end, White did exactly what we expected as he rushed for 100 yards and caught a couple of passes. He failed to find the end zone for the first time in three games, but playing him got you the bonus points for hitting that century mark. This week's it's Carolina, a team in complete disarray. They allow 125 rushing yards per game and they've given up a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns. If the Bucs don't want to blow this one at home, they're going to have to hammer the run early and often.

He's had back-to-back 20-carry games and has amassed over 100 all-purpose yards in each. He's also found the end zone in two of his last three games. With the obvious fact that Bill Belichick hates his quarterbacks, it should come as no surprise that we expect another heavy workload for Stevenson. The Chargers rank 26th in DVOA against the run, they're allowing 110.6 rushing yards per game and have given up 13 rushing touchdowns on the year. The Patriots may be fine losing every remaining game and setting themselves up to acquire Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, but Belichick is still a super-competitive guy and will still look to work over the Chargers defense as much as he can and this price for a guy who sees this kind of volume is exactly where we want to be.

So while I had Najee Harris in the Watch List and firmly believe he will remain and active part of the Steelers ground game, I was looking back on my analysis and thought to myself, “of all the running backs who recently torched the Cardinals defense, what did they have in common…? Hmmm. Kyren WIlliams? Devin Singletary? Bijan Robinson? Oh yeah…they're also big pass-catching running backs." That's Warren's role in this offense as we noticed last week when the new offensive regime took over the play-calling. So here we are now looking at Warren who is comparable in price on DK and a significant bargain on FD.

***FREE SQUARE ALERT*** We haven't seen enough of these at the running back position this season, but after looking at the NFL DFS Ownership projections, we've got one this week in Moss. We know the match-up against Tennessee isn't a great one, but the last time these teams squared off it was Jonathan Taylor's first game of the season and everyone avoided Moss who ended up with 165 rushing yards and two touchdowns. There will be significant fear of that happening again, especially at this price. I'll probably throw him into a GPP lineup or two just to see how my builds go, but he will definitely be a lock in cash lineups this week. And remember, with that, it doesn't even matter how he does. If everyone has him in their lineups, we're all in the same boat.

This match-up against the Washington secondary needs no analysis. The key to success this week is to find enough value to put Tyreek and his price tag into your lineups. We'll keep hunting, but with Hill officially removed from the injury report, start focusing your builds around him and see where it takes you. Hint hint – it starts with locking Zack Moss into your lineup and then finding a pay-down or to at WR and TE.

He's the go-to guy for Jared Goff and he works out of the slot almost 60-percent of the time. With no Marshon Lattimore, they will likely leave Alontae Taylor on him while he's in the slot and everyone knows how tasty a match-up that will be. We'll be looking to lock him into our lineups throughout the week. The only question will be whether we can find enough value to use him and Tyreek in the same lineup.

Yes, I am very much aware of how strong the Cleveland defense is, where they rank in DVOA against the pass, how strong their coverage is and how amazing their pass-rush is. But we're talking about a player whose price usually sits between $9K and $10K and can explode at any moment. I just won't let this kind of a discount go by me in GPP tournaments. The Rams are very much in the playoff hunt in the NFC and can keep pace with the field with a win at home against a Browns team starting Joe Flacco. If the ground game isn't working, Matthew Stafford will take it to the air and lean on his go-to guy. 

I genuinely don't know why Evans isn't really a lock every single week as he sits with the most targets on this team and has found the end zone in five of his last six games. Twice this past week. The Panthers defense may try to step up in the wake of this massive coaching overhaul, but they just don't have the personnel to shut Evans down this week. The Panthers rank 26th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and while they aren't giving up a ton of yards through the air because everyone runs on them, they've still allowed 13 passing touchdowns. Evans should be a fantastic asset this week.

Pittman was outstanding last week, posting 107 yards on 10 catches and should continue his assault on opposing secondaries this week. He's seen double-digit targets in four of his last six games and now sees a Titans pass defense that ranks 30th in DVOA and is allowing 225 passing yards per game with 12 passing touchdowns on the season. The key is the efficiency we should see with Minshew this week as opposing QBs are posting a 98.5 passer rating against this defense. Pittman should be the primary beneficiary here, especially with no Jonathan Taylor and a tough run defense.

While everyone and their grandma rosters Tank Dell, i was Collins who broke out last week with 104 yards and a touchdown on seven grabs last week. I even said it in the Playbook – use Dell in cash but Collins in GPP tournaments – and look what it did for us? This week, Dell is dealing with a calf injury and Noah Brown still isn't 100%, so I expect another heavy lean on Collins. Yes, Patrick Surtain is great in coverage, but even with him in the secondary, the Broncos have struggled against the opposing WR1. The hope is that both Dell and Brown play as most will flock to Dell and those looking for a bargain will look at Brown if he's healthy. That should keep ownership down on Collins enough to give us the edge we need in both cash and GPP.

So I had Brandon Aiyuk in the Watch List and still believe you can use him, but right now I'm looking to save a few shekels and that pivots me to Deebo. Not only do the Eagles allow the fourth-most passing yards per game and have allowed a whopping 23 passing touchdowns, they also rank 27th in DVOA against the opposing WR2. With a steady diet of targets and a few rushing opportunities, Deebo should be a strong asset to your lineup and a great way to differentiate from the herd that locks Aiyuk into their lineups.

Here we go – call your DFS crack dealer, because we're going to chase that multi-touchdown high once again. Ever since Will Levis made his debut and threw four touchdowns (three to DHop), Titans coach Mike Vrabel and the rest of us have been chasing that high each and every week. How could we get it that one week and never again? It can't be, can it? No. Especially with the way the Colts secondary struggles on the outside and deep. Even with Ryan Tannehill under center, Hopkins had eight catches for 140 the last time he faced the Colts and I fully expect him to produce at an elite level once again. Let's just hope Levis gets his shit together this week. 

Listen, I'm not usually one to start getting all bragadocious about a call, but come on, people. I'll happily take my flowers for pounding the drum for Sutton throughout the preseason and while we haven't seen a 100-yard game , we've seen him score a touchdown in eight of 11 games this season and he continues to be the target-leader in this offensive scheme. The Texans rank 24th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 77 receiving yards per game to them. All Sutton needs to do is maintain what he's literally done all season long. This price tag is criminal and I am wholeheartedly taking advantage of this pricing.

For $5K in a full-point PPR scoring format, why wouldn't you use Johnson in this new-look Steelers offense? The short, high-percentage passing falls right into Johnson's wheelhouse. He's averaging just over eight targets per game since returning from IR in Week 7 and will have no issues at all with this coverage from Arizona. He's going to have a high-floor for this match-up and if Kyler Murray can help make a game out of this, Johnson's workload could see an increase. 

With no Michael Wilson and with both Marquise Brown and Trey McBride questionable and/or potentially limited, Dortch jumps off the page as a spectacular pay-down for us. He's played in roughly 75-percent of the snaps over the last two games and has seen 17 targets which he's turned into nine catches for 103 yards and one touchdown. Yet he's still a HUGE bargain, something we can thank the DFS sites for as opposed to ridiculing them for not realizing what's been happening in Arizona over the last couple of weeks. Between him and Zack Moss, we're saving enough money to lock Tyreek Hill into our lineups.

Michael Thomas is on IR, Rashid Shaheed is out with a quad injury and Chris Olave still hasn't cleared concussion protocol, so by default, Perry is looking like a target-monster in this game against a Lions defense that has allowed nearly 30 points per week over their last five games. Detroit is allowing nearly 230 passing yards per game this season and have allowed 19 touchdowns through the air. If their offense kicks it into high-gear against the Saints, Derek Carr is going to be throwing heavily and with Perry's speed and ability to go up and get contested catches, he could be the bargain wideout we are desperately in need of this week. 

The addition of strong safety Kevin Byard has helped stop some of the bleeding against tight ends, but Dalton Kincaid still had five grabs for close to 40 yards and the week before that, Travis Kelce had 44 yards and a score. The 49ers have so many way to come after you, it's going to be extremely difficult for Byard to stay on Kittle the entire time, so look for the 49ers tight end to continue building off his recent success. He didn't do much last week against Seattle and Jamal Adams, but he's got two touchdowns and two 100-yard efforts in the three games prior. I'm definitely intrigued here.

If we learned anything about this new-look Steelers offense, it's that play-caller Mike Sullivan is all about the short-high-percentage passing that led to Kenny Pickett's most efficient game of the season last week. That puts a serious focus on Freiermuth who saw 11 targets last week and produced 120 yards on nine catches. This match-up against Arizona is exactly what Pickett needs to carry that momentum through and Freiermuth should be a major beneficiary once again. Arizona ranks 28th in DVOA against the tight end so look for another heavy target share. 

Even with Joe Flacco starting for the Browns this week, Njoku should remain a heavily-targeted option in this passing attack. He's the No. 2 target in this offense and with so much defensive attention on Amari Cooper, Njoku finds ways to evade coverage and grab chunk-yardage catches. He's averaged 11 targets per game over the last three weeks and has hauled in an average of six catches for 57 yards. With the Rams allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end, we expect more of the same and possibly another trip to the end zone for Njoku. 

We haven't been locking onto Thomas as much in recent weeks as we were earlier in the season and we haven't really missed a beat as he hasn't found the end zone since Week 8. But we come right back to him this week for a variety of reasons. Yes, Sam Howell throws 40 times a game and yes the Dolphins rank 26th in DVOA against the tight end. And yes, the Fins are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position. But we also have Jalen Ramsey looking better and better each week and with him on Terry McLaurin, Howell will have to look at his other pass-catchers. The price is back down to a very respectable and affordable level, so if we can get a solid return on Thomas, we're going to be cashing all weekend long. 

Coop likes him. Impemba likes him and I'm sure with all of the Saints receivers being out, everyone else is going to like Juwan Johnson this week. At least that's what the current DFS Ownership projections are saying right now. Of course, that usually means we can get him into our cash lineups as a free square pay-down, so there's that. But for GPP tournaments, I may just pivot to Taysom Hill. Yeah, go ahead…burn me at the stake for saying it, but it's true. With all the red zone work Hill gets, it's tough to fully trust in Johnson even after we watched him get seven targets last week. Of course, he only saw one red zone target, so again, cash games, sure, but GPP upside is limited.

He plays 95-percent of the snaps and while he hasn't found the end zone in three weeks, he's received seven red zone targets over the last four games. The Panthers aren't giving up a ton of yardage or fantasy points to the tight end, but Carolina does rank 24th in DVOA against the position and they have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this season. Otton's floor is decent enough for cash games, especially at this price, and if he can get into the end zone, he'll do justice to your GPP lineups as well.

He's seen almost six targets per game over the last four and should be a strong option against the Falcons who funnel everything to the middle of the field. Atlanta actually ranks 18th in DVOA against the position but they're allowing an average of 66.8 receiving yards and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end. With few other options for the Jets, Conklin should be a big part of their passing attack this week.

Again, use whatever defense fits your build best, but if you've got the money to pay up, we like Pittsburgh a lot. We've talked about the Steelers defense at home for the last few seasons and this one is no different. They have the fourth-most takeaways and have 32 sacks on the season. TJ Watt is an absolute beast and while Kyler Murray can extend plays with his legs, this defense is going to be able to score some points for us.

I mean….it's Tim Boyle, right? Nothing special about him and he's got three interceptions with just one touchdown over the last two weeks. The Falcons don't get a lot of sacks, nor do they force many turnovers, but the score should stay down in this game as both teams look to run the football, so we don't run much of a risk losing points for giving up points.

Hard to believe it's addition by subtraction with Shaq Leonard being released, but you can't deny what we've seen in recent weeks from this defense. The Colts have the third most sacks, the fifth most takeaways and the most fantasy points among all D/ST over the last month, so with this match-up against the Titans, we have to give them a long look. Will Levis can throw picks with the best of them, so perhaps with all those passes we expect to DHop, perhaps there's a pick-6 lurking somewhere.

Last week's loss to the Broncos helped push the price tag down on the Browns defense and while Matthew Stafford and Company are a dangerous offense to face, I still love a team with 32 sacks and 16 takeaways. Myles Garrett was removed from the injury report, so if that doesn't get you all fired up, I don't know what will.

OK, so this one is more hunch than anything else as I am looking at the contrarian narrative to this game. There's just no way the Lions can put up back-to-back lame-duck weeks can they? They have to rebound from their Thanksgiving debacle, don't they? The Saints defense is banged up and they've had some recent trouble stopping the run, so everyone is expecting the Lions to win this one handily. If that's the case, why is the spread just Lions -4 with little to no movement? With 84-percent of the public money on the Lions laying the points, you know which way I'm leaning.