NFL DFS Week 1 Playbook: Top DraftKings & Top FanDuel Picks

While most focus on the passing attack in Todd Monken's offense, I truly believe the offensive scheme will also enhance some of Jackson's rushing upside as well. Yes, he will look to throw more, but what the scheme also does is stretch the defense to the point where, should Jackson roll out to one side and the defense is covering his receivers, the running lanes are going to be wide open and running on this Texans defense is a great way for him to get the ball rolling this season. It's a great opening game match-up for a new offense and one in which Jackson should thrive.

New Chargers OC Kellen Moore loves to be aggressive in the passing game and that should suit Herbert just fine. He's got fantastic weapons in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer and the Miami secondary is still finding its way after the Jalen Ramsey injury. You always have to be cautious when facing a Vic Fangio defense, but there just might be too much firepower for the Fish to handle here and given the fact that you have such strong receiving weapons on the other side, we could see a little bit of a shootout for a game that has the second-highest over/under.

While we've been inundated with stories about Burrow's calf injury, you cannot overlook the fact that he has been back at practice and he is 100-percent ready to go for Week 1. The Bengals said all preseason that if he isn't ready, they won't play him because they are looking at the long-term picture. Well, he's here and he's playing so that tells me the team and the medical staff are very happy with what they've seen. We know what he's all about and we know the weapons he has at his disposal. Cleveland is going to throw everything they have at him, but Swaggy Joe doesn't back down from anyone. 

Probably my favorite play of the week…hence why he is on the cover of the Week 1 Playbook. It's tough to not be bullish on Lawrence this season after watching him thrive in Doug Pederson's offense last year and now sitting with a Week 1 match-up against a poor Colts secondary. He's got a beautiful new weapon in Calvin Ridley and has all of his top choices from last season returning in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram. The Colts have routinely been a solid team against the run, but between the middle linebackers and the defensive backs, Lawrence should be able to feast on their defense with both the short, high-percentage passes and stretching the field deep. Jags will want to make a statement to open the season against a division rival and we're 100-percent here for that.

The game total is 51 here and the line is set that high for a reason. If using Herbert in a new scheme against a Vic Fangio defense makes you nervous, then pivot right over to Tua with confidence. The Chargers secondary still looks like it could struggle, particularly against the big plays, so having explosive weapons like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should allow Tua to post spectacular numbers this week. You've heard the phrase “scared money don't make money,” so if you're worried about Tua and his concussion history, move along. I am not concerned. What I am focusing on is just how potent this offense looked over the first few weeks of last season before he went down. If that's the Tua and Miami offense we get Sunday, we're going to be swimming through stacks of gold coins like Scrooge McDuck.

With the rest of the world still down on Watson due to major rust in his return last season, I'm definitely willing to give Watson a look in some tournament lineups this week. The key for me here is his ability to extend plays with his legs and really put this new secondary to the test. The Bengals lost some key players in their defensive backfield during the offseason and while the new unit should jell eventually, there could be some issues early on, especially down the middle with two new safeties. The Browns will take some of the pressure off Watson with a strong rushing attack to start, but that should open things up a lot more downfield.

As you probably saw in Jon Impemba's Contrarian Corner, Wilson makes for a very interesting GPP option. Yes, there seems to be something going on between head coach Sean Payton and his quarterback, but when it comes down to business on GameDay, we are confident that the two will see eye to eye and they, along with OC Joe Lombardi's system, will dominate the Raiders and their soft secondary. There is some rain and wind in the forecast, so be mindful of the fact that it could affect things early on, but we've seen Russ cook in the rain before in Seattle. This game is all about the new regime in Denver proving itself and for this kind of pricing, we're going to jam him into our DFS lineups with confidence.

Well you didn't think I was going to go through Week 1 and not offer up my favorite running back for DFS this week, did you? I didn't want to go total Captain Obvious in the Watch List the first time around. I'm pretty sure you already know everything you need to know about Chubb, so rather than tell you how amazing he is (which you already know), let's focus on the fact that the team let Kareem Hunt walk and the other backs on this roster are nothing more than back-ups. Chubb shares with no one and maybe, just maybe, that also gives him a few passes to catch. That's not the focal point though, because his game doesn't need any more enhancements. Expect the Browns to come out swinging with him from the onset and look for him to punish that Bengals defensive line. Angry runs are the best kind of runs to watch.

As I said in the Watch List, if you're going to buy a Ferrari, you're not going to leave it in the garage, are you? You want to take that sucker out for a spin and show it off to your friends. And that's exactly what Arthur Smith is going to do with Robinson this week. The Panthers defense ranks right in the middle and they have some solid personnel in Brian Burns and Justin Houston on the edge and Shaq Thompson up the middle, but the Falcons have strengthened their offensive line and they should get the push they need to open up holes for Bijan to run through. Don't be discouraged if you see Tyler Allgeier on the field early because it will be Robinson where you need him most.

While I'm not a fan of the Tennessee offensive line, a first game against a very weak Saints defensive line has me believing in King Henry at least for this week. Cameron Jordan is 34-years-old and the rest of the line is raw and young. The Titans have no reason not to run Henry hard right out of the gate and with the tandem of Treylon Burks and DeAndre Hopkins running around the defensive backfield, the Saints won't be able to pinch in with the safeties to stuff the run. He's obviously priced-up on FanDuel, but that cost on DK makes him an awfully good pick.

This will be the first year we see Matt LaFleur's offense in its purest form and knowing just how much he wanted to run the ball even with Aaron Rodgers under center, we can be bullish on Jones in this match-up. He's a strong runner both between the tackles and on the outside, he catches passes and this Bears defensive interior is really soft. They added Yannick Ngakoue to aid in the pass-rush but he isn't a run-stopper and the Packers will do everything they can to take advantage. I think DK has him a little low on the pricing, so keep him in mind during your lineup builds.

If you noticed, I actually took Christian McCaffrey out of the Playbook from the Watch List in order to bring up Williams. Listen, you don't need me to tell you to play McCaffrey. If you want to jam his price in, then go for it. I do like the Steelers defense which is why I made this pivot. But to get back to our guy, head coach Sean Payton said he has full confidence in Williams after watching him this preseason and said he is going to give him a substantial workload this week. The Raiders defense has one strength which is their pass rush, but you can neutralize that with short passes to Williams out in the flat. I may limit my exposure to him in GPP tournaments only, but his upside in this match-up is so strong, you could get away with him in cash games as well. UPDATE: We are now hearing more about a snap count for Williams. Payton said he was expecting a big role for him, but keep this news in mind. Strictly a GPP play now.

The Chargers were one of the softest teams against the run last year and it looks like they could struggle against it once again. They have great edge rushers in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, but the best way to neutralize them is to run it up the gut or allow them to over-pursue and dump it off right over their head. Mostert can and should handle all of it. Yes, De'Von Achane and Salvan Ahmed both returned to practice in full back on Wednesday, but Mostert is expected to lead this backfield and should see the majority of both snaps and touches. Health has always been the knock on him, but he's at 100-percent right now and head coach Mike McDaniel trusts him implicitly.

LATE ADD: This is based strictly on expected ownership percentages. With no Alvin Kamara or Kendre Miller, Williams will see the full workload against a mediocre Titans run defense. I believe the Saints will be passing a bunch as the Titans secondary is their true weakness, but everyone and their grandma seem to be on Williams. The price is significantly better on DK than it is FD, so keep that in mind. This could be a true example of good chalk vs bad chalk, but considering it's just Week 1 and we know we're going to be up against all the lineup optimizers in our cash games, he warrants consideration just to keep pace with the pack. Be sure to find a way to differentiate yourself a little bit in your lineup to avoid getting caught up in the lineup trains we expect to see.

Ultimately, I believe Antonio Gibson profiles more like the running back Eric Bieniemy wants to use in his offensive scheme, but this could be a big volume game for Robinson against a Cardinals team that is going to get slapped around all season. We'll see a little bit of Sam Howell unleashed, but Riverboat Ron knows he doesn't need to mess around this week and he'll happily watch his team kill the clock in the second half with a heavy rushing workload. We'll definitely see a split out of the backfield early on, but we saw Robinson with some heavy workloads late last season and there's no reason to believe we won't see more of that this week. 

Yes, now is the time for me to put my Captain Obvious cape on and tell you to use Jefferson in your lineups if you can afford the salary. When you play Week 1 DFS, there are always some question marks, especially when we see as many changes to offenses as we did this offseason. So building a few lineups with some obvious talent helps raise the floor for you. We'll be playing around with some builds as the week progresses and there is always some extra value that opens late in the week. Once the true bargains are revealed, we'll be able to fit a monster like Jefferson with no problem.

The Chargers biggest weakness last season was stopping the run and while they made some attempts to fix that, this defense still has plenty of holes. Expect the Dolphins to attack with the run early and let the passing open up naturally. Hill is always explosive and while the secondary for Los Angeles is good, it's not good enough to contain both Hill and Waddle. I may pay down a little to get Waddle into a lineup or two, but we all know that Hill can turn out 100-plus yards and multiple touchdowns at any point. Heck, there's a good chance I go full-stack with Miami this week and use them both.

With Burrow declared ready to roll this week, you cannot overlook Chase. No way. We've seen the two connect so many times before and we've seen people take down some big-ass GPPs with the pairing. I still like Hill and Jefferson a little more if you're going with a naked WR, but if it comes down to fitting in salary, Chase is absolutely in-play. The Browns have had routine secondary issues, mostly due to injuries, so a Week 1 test should be fun to watch. But if I'm looking at guys like Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome, I'm taking Chase's side every time.

He's Justin Herbert's security blanket and with Kellen Moore's offensive scheme in place, we'll see heavy looks to the receivers this year. I've talked about this system extensively in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide and with it and a healthy Herbert, this passing attack is going to come out guns blazing. The Miami Defense is getting a new look with Vic Fangio at the helm, but the loss of Jalen Ramsey is going to weight on them. Xavien Howard is going to have his hands full with Mike Williams which should help Allen thrive in the short-passing game. Allen is PPR gold when he and Herbert are on their game.

While I was still a little back and forth between Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, I'm settling in on giving the edge to Metcalf as I like his physicality. The two are priced very close together and they will both see strong targets against a very suspect Rams defense. It's likely to come down to cost if you have to pick one over the other and if you are playing multiple lineups, I recommend some shares of each. Pete Carroll loves to run the ball, but we saw last year that he leaves OC Shane Waldron alone and that means Geno Smith will be throwing fairly heavily once again.

With Derek Carr taking over under center, I'm a little more bullish on this passing attack and, of course, Olave as the team's No. 1. Yes, I consider him the No. 1 over Michael Thomas who has to prove himself, not just to me, but to the team as well. Olave is a clean route-runner who can handle the work over the middle, but he also has the breakaway speed to gain separation in coverage and stretch the field as a deep threat. The Titans secondary has long been a problem so look for the Saints to attack it every chance they get.

It's just like I said up above with regard to Bijan Robinson. If you've got this type of weapon and all signs from the offseason are good, then you need to give him a look in DFS because Doug Pederson is going to have Trevor Lawrence looking his way often, especially against a weak Colts secondary. He's probably a better GPP play than a cash game play as we are using him for what he could be and that means we're looking for the ceiling. There are plenty of weapons on this team, but should he and Lawrence connect the way we think they will this season, then let's try and jump on it right from Week 1. I doubt his price stays this low ever again. 

We know Minnesota's defense, even with Brian Flores taking over, is going to have issues and their personnel in the secondary is lacking. Tampa Bay may go with a run-heavy scheme to start, but should the Vikings jump out to a quick lead, you can expect the Bucs to try and counter with their weapons. Godwin profiles a little better than a disgruntled Mike Evans, especially in a PPR format as he will be working out of the slot and serve as the chain-moving, reliable receiver for Baker Mayfield. And with the struggles we should see on the Tampa offensive line, expect a quick release which, again, favors the route tree of Godwin a lot more. Be sure to check in with our Ownership Forecaster as I have a sneaking suspicion few people are going to want to put their trust here.

Have you grown tired of me telling you how a Joe Lombardi offensive scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver yet? I hope not, because it's absolutely true and Sutton is going to start seeing a ton of work come his way, especially with Jerry Jeudy sidelined. There is not a lot of faith in this Las Vegas defense outside of its pass-rush, so expect a physical Sutton to muscle past his coverage and get plenty of opportunities. And the price tag? Oh baby!

While it looks like FanDuel is onto the Aiyuk rise we are expecting this season, DraftKings is clearly missing the boat based on this sub-$5K price tag. Yes, the Steelers have a solid secondary and a much-improved defense, but you know after the 49ers establish that run with McCaffrey, the Steelers are going to have to make some adjustments. I like the relationship between Brock Purdy and Aiyuk that we saw develop last season and firmly believe that he could emerge as the team's No. 1 receiver this season. He's going to be a great salary-saver on DK this week, so we will want to take advantage.

Well somebody's going to have to catch the ball, right? The injury and recent setback for Cooper Kupp is going to put Jefferson at the top of the targets list this week and while Seattle's pass-rush could frustrate Matthew Stafford, the secondary is not all that strong, especially with Jamal Adams out and Devon Witherspoon banged up. He's going to be a cheap, volume play this week, so keep him in mind when looking for pay-downs, especially on FanDuel.

With full practices put in late in the week, we are going to look at Doubs in a major way, especially with Christian Watson officially declared out with a hamstring injury of his own. Doubs may work better on DK with its full-point PPR scoring format as he is going to be someone Jordan Love relies upon to help move the chains. He's a clean route-runner with reliable hands and has been one of the go-to- guys for Love throughout camp. You'll probably see Jayden Reed show up in the Dart Board this week as an upside GPP play, but when you're looking to save salary in a zero-fat cash game lineup, Doubs could be the play here.

Welcome to the new air-raid offense in Baltimore. The Ravens did a good job of building up the receiving targets for Lamar Jackson and the offseason workouts with Jackson, Flowers and Odell Beckham are likely to yield some positive results early on. We're going to have to really study how the targets are distributed this week to get a better idea of things, but the offseason has shown a nice rapport with the rookie and his quarterback, so we're willing to take that chance on him against a weak Houston team, especially in GPP lineups. 

We saw he target share grow exponentially when he went from Detroit to Minnesota last year and we expect him to remain a strong focal point of this passing attack. With Adam Thielen gone, you can expect those targets to be distributed among Hockenson, Jordan Addison and KJ Osborn which puts the tight end in a fantastic spot. He's priced up on FanDuel which makes it tougher to build your lineups over there, but it's a solid price on DK which is better for us anyway given the full-point PPR scoring.

While Van Jefferson moves up to be the Rams No. 1 receiver this week, you can also expect a targets increase for Higbee as well. The team does not have a lot of strong depth among its pass-catchers so with Cooper Kupp out, that's a lot of targets to be divided up among very few reliable players. Not having Jamal Adams is going to affect the Seahawks' secondary, especially over the middle, so look for Higbee to see a strong workload this week.

I don't want to ignore Engram this week, especially after watching him become a favorite target for Lawrence last season. Yes, Ridley is now here and he joins the already established Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, but Engram was so reliable for the team last year that you know Lawrence will be looking for him in tight spots once again. He had solid numbers against the Colts defense last year and that defense actually took a few hits in the offseason so they are definitely not as strong.

I'm a big fan of the veteran tight end with his move to Houston as I believe he will be a strong focal point for rookie CJ Stroud with between the 20s and inside the red zone. We know rookie QBs like to lean on their tight end and that is exactly why DeMeco Ryans brought him over from Dallas. The receiving corps for Houston is pretty weak, so when the Texans fall into a pass-heavy catch-up mode, expect Schultz to be featured. Its a tough match-up against this Ravens defense, but when Schultz gets some separation, he'll be a very reliable target.

I'm not going to lie….I'm a little nervous about all of this Taysom Hill and Jimmy Graham talk, but Johnson has so much talent – and size and speed – that he's going to be a very intriguing option for Derek Carr. The Titans secondary has been their defense's Achilles heel for some time and I don't see much changing for them this season. Johnson should be able to shake coverage against some of their more sluggish linebackers and he's going to out-muscle any safety that tries to get in his way. If you're looking for a cheap pay-down in GPP tournaments, I love his potential.

LATE ADD: Welcome to the new tight end chalk for the day. With news that Mark Andrews will not play Sunday, the pivot immediately goes to Likely who should see a substantial role today in Todd Monken's air-raid offense. He's going to help save salary in both cash games as well as GPP, but just be mindful of his expected high ownership. He could have a decent game but if everyone is playing him, you may want to lay off him in your mega multi-entry GPP tournaments.

Welcome to the NFL, C.J. Stroud. This is going to be quite the test. The Ravens defense is fierce and we saw just how much better it got when they added Roquan Smith. The Texans are going to struggle early on and with rain in the forecast, things could get a little sloppy. If you can afford them, the Ravens could be the top defense on this slate, scoring-wise.

While Bill Belichick is the mad genius on the defensive side, we are looking at the return of Bill O'Brien and Mac Jones here. Yes, O'Brien brought some elements of the Alabama offense to help make Jones more comfortable, but this is going to be a very tough test for him. The Eagles defense is incredibly string from the defensive line to the defensive backs, so keep watch.

The Jaguars defense has some outstanding personnel and should be ball-hawking against Anthony Richardson every chance they get. There are also some serious holes in the backfield without Jonathan Taylor. We could be looking at some nice turnovers and a potential defensive TD.

They spent the entire offseason revamping this defense through free agency and trade. Now they get their first test against a rookie quarterback and a coach who doesn't have a strong Week 1 record. As much as I like Frank Reich, this is all about Bryce Young and whether or not he's ready for prime time.

We all know that the Cardinals are not going to be a good team and with Joshua Dobbs under center, this could be a solid day for the Commanders. Rain in the forecast also leads to plenty of turnovers, so if you want to pay down and save money, this is the way.