NFL DFS Week 1 Picks, Projections & Playbook For DraftKings & FanDuel

The second-year QB finds himself surrounded by new offensive talent heading into the 2024 season and we get to see if he can build upon his impressive rookie season with an immediate divisional road matchup against Anthony Richardson and the Colts.

With Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon added to the offense that already included Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz, the expectations are high in Week 1.

Let's see if Stroud can shake his poor road performances from his rookie season which saw him average 10 less points per game when playing away from NRG Stadium.

One of my favorite QB's this season, Tua led the NFL in passing yards in 2023 but found himself finishing outside the top 12 in fantasy point per games due to the lack of touchdowns.

Touchdowns are a tough thing to predict but what we love in this matchup against the Jaguars is the slate high 49.5 game total with the Dolphins sitting as 3.5-point home favorites.

I may ultimately revise this pick if Jaylen Waddle is unable to suit up for Sunday but if this Dolphins offense is fully healthy, I'm expecting Tua to air it out to open the season.

Richardson was a hot topic going into last season with analyst split when it came to whether or not he could be a productive NFL QB.

What we found out quickly was that he is an ELITE fantasy QB with games of 21.9 and 29.6 fantasy points when he could play a full game and one game of 17.7 where he was injured in the first half.

His rushing upside is elite and while his passing potential still seems questionable, the Colts are going to let Richardson make plays and that is good for our fantasy lineups.

The number one overall pick made some flashy plays during the preseason, showing why he was the consensus top pick in the draft.

We also have to love the fact that the Bears went out and surrounded him with talent, acquiring Keenan Allen from the Chargers, signing D'Andre Swift and drafting Rome Odunze with the eighth overall pick.

Not to mention this offense already had D.J. Moore who is coming off a career best 1,364 yards despite some horrific QB play in Chicago.

This could be the last time we see Williams priced this low.

From the number one pick to the number two pick. Daniels has a much different skillset than Williams in the fact that he has elite rushing upside.

We saw him make plays with his legs during the preseason while also showing off his strong arm.

Unlike Williams, Daniels does begin his rookie season on the road so that could be a bit of a concern but if he goes out there and rushes for 80 yards and a touchdown while throwing for 200 and another score he will smash this price tag.

ADDED - He made the QB coach so I'm adding him into the playbook. The Commanders secondary is horrific and we get a home start here for Mayfield where he really excelled last season. Moving Chris Godwin back into the slot is only going to help things this season and Mike Evans is poised for a monster day.

ADDED - I wasn't initially looking to spend up at the running back position today but the ownership is all in on Robinson in his matchup agaisnt the Steelers and last season the Steelers did have some trouble against the run, especially when on the road. Add in the upside that Robinson brings to the table in the passing game and I'm sneaking him into some lineups.

It feels like change is coming in Buffalo with the way this offense is going to operate in 2024 and that change I'm thinking will benefit James Cook.

The Bills traded away Stefon Diggs this offseason and replaced him with rookie Keon Coleman who had a less than impressive preseason. The team also signed Curtis Samuel who has been hurt, shocking, and Marquez Valdes-Scanting who has also been hurt.

The Cardinals are not expected to have a great defense and I think with the Bills passing game dealing with inconsistencies, we see a heavy ground game approach.

The cover of the playbook.  I love the overall involvement of Kamara in the Saints offense. Yes, he had a career low 694 rushing yards but he did also have 75 receptions while only playing in 13 games.

We are actually expecting an uptick in his rushing upside this season with the new offensive system being put in place and while there will certainly be moments where we scream at the TV because Taysom Hill is in the game in the red zone, I think there is more than enough value here for Kamara in this Week 1 matchup against the Panthers.

Why not be bullish on the Texans here in Week 1?

We are expecting them to score a lot of points this season and Mixon has been one of the better high volume running backs in the NFL over the past few years as a member of the Bengals.

We love his usage in the passing game and given the depth on the roster behind him, he should see all the red zone work as well.

While everyone is hyped about the explosive upside of De'von Achane, Mostert ran for over 1,000 yards last season and had 21 rushing touchdowns.

Head coach Mike McDaniel has never waivered that Mostert is their leading running back and the back that will be used in the red zone which means, for an elite offense, there is still a ridiculous amount of touchdown upside here.

Yes, Achane will have some monster plays and be used in the passing game as well but I'm liking myself some Mostert here in Week 1.

ADDED - He is POPPING when it comes to ownership this week and it honestly makes sense, the matchup here against the Broncos coupled with the offensive play style for the Seahawks could see Walker fed early and often this week.

Sometimes you just have to look at what the team did with a player and then what the did in the offseason with the position.

What we saw at the end of last season was the Raiders offense FEED the football to Zamir White and he responded in kind by averaging nearly 17 fantasy points per game over the final four weeks of the season.

This offseason the team's only move was to add Alexander Mattison and in the sixth round draft Dylan Laube.

This is White's backfield in a great spot.

I'm a sucker for the price tag here.  Williams is now two years removed from the torn ACL injury that was considered worse than that of your “typical” ACL injury. He was OK last year, he wasn't awful, he wasn't great, he was OK.

This offense is still run under Sean Payton and Joe Lombardi which means the running back will be featured and featured in the passing game.

With rookie Bo Nix starting at QB, I envision the Broncos leaning on their rushing attack and using the screen game to get the ball moving downfield which is a benefit to  Williams in this matchup against the Seahawks. 

Value running back play here. The Chargers bring in Greg Roman to be their offensive coordinator under Jim Harbaugh and with Roman he signs to former Ravens running backs in Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins who are familiar with his system.

Dobbins has now had pretty bad injuries in back-to-back seasons with the torn ACL and then achilles tear while Edwards had 13 rushing touchdowns as the lead back for the Ravens.

Even with Dobbins healthy, I question if he can still be effective and therefore my lean is Edwards, especially given his likely red zone usage. 

Yes, he has been dealing with a hand injury all preseason but the reports are that he is fine and the team is just holding him out as a precaution.

What we have here is an explosive receiver who has had 1700+ yards in back-to-back seasons.

This game has the highest game total on the board and stacking the Miami offense is never going to be a bad thing.

How afraid are you Sam Darnold? I ask that question because Justin Jefferson is still as elite as they come at wide receiver and we saw him put up some big numbers with Nick Mullens at QB last year.

The Kevin O'Connell offense is built to push the ball down the field and the Giants defense, though strong up front, is certainly beatable in the secondary.

I think there will be lower ownership here.

Speaking of horrific secondaries, as much as we are concerned about the Buccaneers offensive line this season, their passing offense should put on a show here in Week 1 at home against the Commanders.

In his first season with Baker Mayfield at QB we saw Mike Evans do Mike Evans things as he finished with 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns.

After talking his way out of Buffalo we now see Diggs in Houston and I'm fully expecting him to make an immediate impression on this offense as the go to receiver for Stefon Diggs while Nico Collins and Tank Dell look to stretch the field.

Top receiving option in this Bears offense. He will easily fit your GPP stacks with Caleb Williams but I also love him in cash games on this slate as we look to attack this Titans secondary that still has some questions.

ADDED - I absolutely can't stop thinking about the WR/CB Matchup Report where the expected matchup for London today is Steelers CB Dionte Jackson who is giving up six inches in height and 40lbs. We are already expecting a break out performance from London this season and it seems like Week 1 is going to get him off to a great start.

All we've heard this offseason is how the new offensive coordinator in Seattle wants to feature a lot of DK Metcalf this season.

If that's true then no better spot to start than at home against the Denver Broncos.

This price tag, given the upside, if that usage ends up being correct could be the cheapest we see Metcalf all season long.

Moving back into the slot this season should set  Godwin up to be a target monster this season for the Buccaneers offense.

I love him for my cash game lineups, especially on DraftKings where it is full-point PPR.

McLaurin is the unquestioned top receiver in this Commanders offense and with new QB Jayden Daniels he now may have the most talented QB he has played with over the course of his NFL career.

Opposing defenses are going to be fixated on keeping Daniels from running but the QB's ability to extend plays and move around the pocket also creates more time for McLaurin to get open downfield.

Really loving this two-man stack.

Kirk was one of my “gotta have him” picks during seasonal fantasy football this year.

They have him moving back into the slot with Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. on the outside.

This move to slot will put him right back in a place for Trevor Lawrence to pepper him with targets like we saw two years ago when they first signed him.

I really do not know what to make of this Panthers offense on a whole but what I do know is that last season Adam Thielen was a fantasy monster in DFS.

This year, though Thielen is still on the roster, we are expecting Diontae Johnson to be the man getting peppered with the targets and in PPR formats

As we mentioned, the Chargers offense had a lot of turnover this offseason. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler are all gone.

The offensive philosophy under Greg Roman is to run the football BUT we've also seen some wide receivers make an impact in the offense as well.

The Chargers used a second round pick on Ladd McConkey and all expectations are that he becomes the new go-to guy for Herbert.

ADDED - With Tyler Lockett dealing with an injury and now considered questionable we have to look at JSN who many were already expecting to see a leap here in year two after the Seahawks drafted him in the first round last season.

If stacking this game I think getting some shares of Brian Thomas makes sense.

The Jaguars first round pick is still a bit raw overall but he is a field stretcher that can make some big plays and I can see the Jaguars needing to take some shots downfield here to keep pace with this Dolphins offense.

The Patriots are not expected to be leading many games which means they should be throwing a lot and there is a real possibility that their second round pick Ja'Lynn Polk can establish himself as the team's top receiving options and at the value price tag, he will only need a handful of receptions to pay off his value.

ADDED - This is setting up to be a good week for Iosivas. First, we get the reports that Jermain Burton is essentially not going to play this season due to maturity issues and then we get reports that Tee Higgins is missing practices due to hamstring issues. We also have Ja'Marr Chase, who is practicing but has missed the entire preseason due to his holdout and may not be 100% in game shape. So, we have all of that, and we haven't even talked about the matchup where the Bengals are big home favorites agaisnt the Patriots. Iosivas could end up being a chalky dart throw when official inactives come out if BOTH Higgins and Burton are not playing.

We all expect the Bills passing attack to flow through tight end Dalton Kincaid following the team's trade of Stefon Diggs.

The Cardinals defense has historically struggled to defend this position and with the Bills moving Kincaid all over the field, he should be set up to find favorable matchups against Arizona in Week 1.

Just continuing to suggest more options to stack in this matchup against Miami. 

Engram had finished 2023 with a career best 963 yards and 114 receptions.

To me, he is still the top two target in this offense next to  Christian Kirk even with the first round investment in Brian Thomas Jr.

We all really want to see the Falcons offense reach its potential now that they have a new coach and an actual QB in Kirk Cousins.

The Steelers have struggled against opposing tight ends in the past and Pitts figures to be a top two target in this offense behind Drake London.

Another top two target? The Steelers have George Pickens as the clear top receiver but after him there are a lot of question marks.

Which has led many to believe that Freiermuth could very well be that second option for the Russell Wilson led Steelers offense.

Another team with a lot of questions at wide receiver which is leading many to think that we could see the tight end be heavily involved.

It wouldn't be too shocking to see a Joe Lombardi led offense feature the tight end in the offense and Dulcich has shown flashes of being a productive pass catcher.

We've seen two seasons of Deshaun Watson in Cleveland and none of it has been all that impressive.

The Cowboys are the top priced defense on DraftKings and boast the ability to pressure the QB and get turnovers.

The likely chalk defensive play this week is the Bengals.

They open the year at home against a Patriots team that some peg to have the worst record in football this season.

The Patriots offensive line is horrific and Jacoby Brissett is barely a game managing QB.

A sneaky defense this year is going to be Atlanta as they continue to add playmakers which include their most recent acquisition of Matthew Judon.

What's left with Russell Wilson? We will find out won't we.

Not buying Sam Darnold? Believe it or not, he Giants defense averaged over 10 fantasy points per game at home last year.

The defense is solid, the only issue could be the amount of time they are on the field given the questions surrounding the Giants offense.