Most weeks have been smooth when it comes to NFL survivor pools. A big pot hole was finally hit last week when a large portion was eliminated when the Bengals lost to the Jets. Hopefully, you avoided them and took the Bills or Rams, the top two picks here last week, ahead of the Bengals. Week 9 has several big favorites, including five teams favored by at least seven points.
Here are my top survivor picks for the week.
- Buffalo Bills: The Bills are in a great spot this week, even on the road against the Jaguars. The Bills are favored by 14.5 points. The Bills do have several good spots remaining, including a road game against the Jets next week, and home games against the Falcons and Jets to close the season. The Jaguars are one of the worst teams against the pass and the Bills excel throwing the ball. The Jaguars allowed Geno Smith to complete 83.3 percent of his passes last week. The Bills also have one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking first in defensive DVOA and have allowed only five touchdown passes. They lead the league in points allowed (15.6), total yards (269) and passing yards (182.4) per game. After a bye week, the Jaguars were beaten easily last week by the Seahawks, 31-7. The Jaguars have been outscored 203-123, while the Bills have outscored opponents, 229-109.
- Indianapolis Colts: The Colts likely haven't been used by many people and are 10.5-point favorites. They get the Jets at home on a short week on Thursday night. While the Jets upset the Bengals last week, it was a home game and the Bengals were playing their third consecutive home game. The Colts now have some tape on rookie quarterback Mike White, who checks down often to the running backs. The Colts are coming off a disappointing overtime loss to the Titans. Carson Wentz didn't help with two terrible interceptions late in the game. The Colts offensive line has been good and Jonathan Taylor has 649 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The Colts run defense is first in run defense DVOA, allowing four yards per carry. The Colts have scored at least 30 points in three straight games. The Jets allow 29.4 points per game and rank 28th in pass defense DVOA. The Colts also have a good spot next week at home against the Jaguars.
- Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys average 32.1 points when Dak Prescott plays. Prescott is expected to start after sitting out last week with a calf injury. There's risk Prescott plays and aggravates the injury and leaves the game. Backup Cooper Rush led the Cowboys, who are 10-point favorites, to a road win against Minnesota last week. The Broncos defense started well against poor offenses and hasn't been as good since and it didn't help they traded Von Miller to the Rams. They rank 25th in defensive DVOA and the Cowboys offense is one of the best in the NFL with many play makers. The Cowboys defense has been the surprise, ranking seventh in defensive pass DVOA and intercepting 11 passes. The Cowboys host the Falcons next week and these two games appear to be the best spots for Dallas.