NFL Target Analysis: Week 9

More often than not, the bulk of this article contains bullet points, with each one featuring a different player. While part of the reason for that choice is, admittedly, to make it easier to get to as many important pass-catchers as possible, that isn’t the only reason. Most weeks, there isn’t a whole lot to tie any of the players to each other outside of getting a lot of targets either in the last week or a season as a whole. Each player is a completely different entity, and deserves to be treated as such. This week, after I had put together the list of players to discuss this week, it occurred to me that they fell into four pretty distinct categories. It was just dumb luck (and the late addition of Logan Thomas ) that caused there to be exactly four players in each category. Take a look at our updated Target Leaderboard for the year before we get to our four quartets.

These Guys are Really Good

• Keenan Allen —One side bonus of answering questions in the FantasyAlarm chat on Sunday is I get a pretty good sense of how fantasy players feel about NFL players based on the questions they ask. In fact, the questions I got on Sunday informed the groups I placed players into this week. It has been evident for a couple of weeks now that fantasy players are pretty low on Keenan Allen . On Sunday, we were asked start/sit questions comparing Allen to John Brown , Devin Funchess , Cooper Kupp , Calvin Ridley , Marvin Jones , Tyler Lockett , Chris Carson and Dion Lewis , among others. Allen produced 124 receiving yards on 10 targets Sunday, and added two carries for 28 yards as well. Even after such a strong game, he is 22nd among wide receivers in PPR scoring and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. I wonder if you could still buy low on Allen, maybe for Amari Cooper and the reanimated corpse of Derrick Henry ? It can’t hurt to ask, and Allen is too good to be kept out of the end zone much longer.
• Adam Thielen —I was asked at least once Sunday about Adam Thielen ’s prospects with Stefon Diggs out, and while Thielen had his worst game of the season by far, he still scored a touchdown for the sixth consecutive game. Thielen has seven targets in each of the last two games after getting double-digit targets in each of the first seven games of the season. If you own Thielen, he is still a must-start every week, but if his owner thinks he is selling high after seeing his targets decrease, I would jump at the chance to trade for him.
• Mike Evans —This is cold comfort for anyone who owns him, but Evans did have double-digit targets for the third consecutive game. Evans’s four best fantasy games all came with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the football, including all four of his touchdowns. I can’t promise he won’t have another dud down the stretch, but he will be awfully good more often than not.
• Josh Gordon —Not long ago, I thought about Gordon about the same way I thought of DeSean Jackson . Both have ridiculous big play potential, but neither could be counted on for more than a handful of targets per game. That changed Sunday when he had nine targets for the second time in four games. Gordon is averaging 4.5 receptions on 7.8 targets per game over that span. He looks a lot more like Mike Evans than DeSean Jackson now, though I still trust Evans a bit more.

A Whole Lot Can Change in One Week

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling has seven receptions on 17 targets over the last three games. He had 100 yards in two of those games and a touchdown in the other, but that is an awfully hard way to make a living. MVS needs to be owned, and he is a WR3 or Flex until we get through the bye weeks, but don’t like him nearly as much as most of the people who asked about him on Sunday.
• Courtland Sutton —I liked Sutton better than Marquez Valdes-Scantling and D.J. Moore last week, and while I will probably have to rank Valdes-Scantling higher in Week 11 (Sutton’s on bye this week), I think I still believe in Sutton more in the long run. He just looks like a good receiver, and sooner or later I think someone in Denver is going to realize Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders need to get more targets than Jeff Heuerman .
• Demaryius Thomas –It looked to me like the Texans tried to justify their trade on the first drive Sunday, then decided that wasn’t the best way to try to win a football game. Thomas probably deserves a bit of a pass considering he was traded five days before the game, but I don’t know how you can feel overly confident about playing him following the by e this week.
• D.J. Moore —I tried to throw some cold water on the D.J. Moore optimism both in this space and in the chat Sunday. Moore was targeted just twice Sunday, and he still hasn’t topped six targets in any game this season. Like Marquez Valdes-Scantling , Moore should be owned, but hopefully you aren’t in such dire straits with byes and injuries that you actually need to play him.

Don’t You Forget About Me

• Duke Johnson —The long-awaited Duke Johnson breakout finally game in Week 9 with a season-high nine targets. The Browns are not good enough to continue to ignore Johnson in the passing game, and now that their head coach and offensive coordinator are gone, there is reason to believe this is the new norm. I would like to see it once more before I trust Duke completely, but this should be a good matchup, and you could do far worse in your flex spot.
• Corey Davis —I just can’t quit Corey Davis . He is tied for 21st on our target leaderboard, and I am just stubborn enough to believe he is a good player. Davis’ targets, receiving yards and touchdowns are nearly identical to Willie Snead , and as much as it pains me, we probably have to think of them as being roughly the same going forward.
• Kenny Golladay —Golladay is a good player too, but unlike Corey Davis , Golladay has a real NFL quarterback. Golladay has seven total targets over the last three weeks, but that absolutely cannot continue with Golden Tate gone. He probably isn’t a WR2 right now, but I suspect he will be sooner rather than later.
• Calvin Ridley —I was shocked that anyone would consider anyone in the group above ahead of Calvin Ridley last week. Ridley caught six of nine targets for 71 yards and his seventh touchdown of the season. I’ll have him ahead of Corey Davis but probably behind Kenny Golladay for the foreseeable future.

Tight Ends are People Too

• Jeff Heuerman —If there is anything we can all agree on in this mixed-up, muddled-up, shook-up world, it’s that a functional NFL offense would not target Jeff Heuerman 11 times. Heuerman led all tight ends with 11 targets last week; no other tight end had more than seven. Heuerman was actually open a decent amount and no one has accused the Broncos’ offense of being functional this season, so he will be at the top of the list if you need a bye-week replacement in Week 11.
• Nick Vannett —I admittedly feel pretty foolish for behind scared away from Nick Vannett by Ed Dickson , of all people. Vannett is unlikely to ever be a focal point of Seattle’s offense, but Russell Wilson has thrown 11 touchdowns in his last four games, and Vannett has a decent chance to catch one of those TDs every week.
• Mark Andrews —Mark Andrews certainly looked like Baltimore’s top tight end last week, but I’m not confident that will still be the case following the bye this week. I think we all expect Hayden Hurst to leapfrog Andrews eventually, though that may not happen this season.
• Logan Thomas —The most notable thing he did Sunday was take a dumb unnecessary roughness penalty for a vicious hit on Tarik Cohen on punt coverage. That being said, he was one of the aforementioned tight ends with seven targets, and Buffalo’s offense is even less functional than Denver’s.