Happy Holidays, FANation! There were a couple surprising target totals in Week 15, but for this week and next, we’re mostly looking at the season-long target leaderboard for insights into how we should value these pass-catchers for 2021. The situations for some of these players will change drastically from this season to the next, so we’ll try to focus on the players we think are good enough to succeed even if they are not in an ideal situation.
For the second week in a row, DeAndre Hopkins caught nine of 11 targets for more than 135 yards. He had mostly struggled after Arizona’s Week 8 bye, as had Kyler Murray , but Murray bounced back in a big way in this game. Hopkins may not be the most consistent receiver around, but if Murray improves at all as a passer in his third season, Hopkins could easily go back to being a top three fantasy receiver.Calvin Ridley is up to eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers after he caught ten of 14 targets for 168 yards and a touchdown Sunday. He’s looking like a high-end WR2 next season, and he may be one of the safest receivers in the league. He has mostly been better when Julio Jones has been out this season, so maybe we bump him down to a lower-end WR2, but it’s not like we can expect Julio to play 16 games at this point in his career.? Dwayne Haskins had 55 pass attempts Sunday, so take the 15 targets for Logan Thomas , 12 for Terry McLaurin and ten for J.D. McKissic with a grain of salt. Even with all of those targets, only Logan Thomas topped 80 yards, which tells you everything you need to know about Haskins. I think all three players are better off if Alex Smith returns, but it’s nice to know they don’t need Smith to be productive.
If you made it this far in the fantasy playoffs, I think you’re playing D.K. Metcalf and benching Tyler Lockett no matter what. That being said, I am officially worried about Seattle’s passing game. I’m less worried about the volume--Wilson has 27 passing attempts in each of his last two games--and more worried that they’re not finding ways to get receivers open. At the end of the day, Russell Wilson and D.K. Metcalf are too good for the coaches to hold them back for long, but I still madyfade them for DFS the rest of the way.
Brandon Aiyuk had his fewest receiving yards since Week 6, catching nine of 13 targets for 73 yards and a touchdown. He will be one of the toughest receivers to evaluate next season, considering most of his production has come with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel out. I don’t think he’s good enough to be an every-week starter when there are other options in the passing game, but I think I’ll rank him ahead of Deebo Samuel for next year. The one thing Aiyuk has in his favor is that he has done this while catching passes from Nick Mullens . If San Francisco has a better quarterback next season, that could help Aiyuk climb the wide receiver ranks.
When we have looked at catch rate in this column in the past, we have focused on players with low catch rates, specifically 50 percent or less. We haven’t really looked at the catch rate leaders a whole lot, in part because they are fairly obvious. Most of them are slow receivers with a low average depth of target like Curtis Samuel , Cole Beasley , and JuJu Smith-Schuster . The others are the best receivers in the game, like DeAndre Hopkins , Stefon Diggs , and Davante Adams . The one receiver who doesn’t fit either group, sitting seventh with a 77.9 percent catch rate, is Corey Davis . As you might expect, Davis has significantly fewer targets than most of the other catch rate leaders, because he usually only gets targeted when he’s wide open on play action, mostly against zone coverage. Davis is a free agent after the season, and I suspect he will be severely over-drafted for fantasy if he goes to another team. He has been very good in his role for Tennessee this season, but we haven’t seen anything in his career to suggest his skills would translate to another offense.
At this point in the season, it is pretty rare to see a surprising receiving performance, but David Johnson ’s 11 receptions on 11 targets certainly qualify. Johnson came into the game with 16 receptions on 27 targets through eight games. Deshaun Watson has never really targeted his running backs much, even after the Texans wasted traded a third-round pick for Duke Johnson prior to last season. I’m not expecting Johnson to catch a ton of passes the last two weeks, even if Duke Johnson and C.J. Prosise are out again, but I will be watching to see if Watson has suddenly become more willing to check the ball down.
Only two tight ends have topped 90 targets on the season: Travis Kelce and Darren Waller . Waller has 35 more targets than the next tight end, Logan Thomas . Thomas has 89 targets, followed by Evan Engram at 88, and T.J. Hockenson and Hunter Henry at 87. I think you could make a compelling argument to rank any of those tight ends fourth next year behind Kelce Waller and George Kittle . I would add Dallas Goedert and Noah Fant to that group as well. The smart move would probably be to wait and take whoever is left at the end of that tier, but I think I would be willing to take a chance on a breakout from Goedert, Hockenson, or Fant. If there’s a knock against Fant, it’s that he didn’t make our target leaderboard for the year despite the injury to Courtland Sutton and the struggles of Jerry Jeudy. He would likely have to really improve to demand more targets next season.
I’m not sure we learned a whole lot about Tony Pollard in his start Sunday, but it was nice to see him catch six of his nine targets for 63 yards. He’s definitely more of a weapon in the passing game than Ezekiel Elliott , and while he would be good in any format if he had a starting job, he would probably be better in PPR.
I don’t know that I’m going to read much into it, but it was interesting to see Robby Anderson match his season-low with five targets Saturday, especially since it coincided with D.J. Moore ’s return from a one-game absence. Anderson has been a revelation this season, and one bad game isn’t going to change that, though I am wary of using him against Washington in Week 16.
In case there was any doubt, Jarvis Landry solidified his spot as a WR2, catching seven of eight targets for 61 yards and a touchdown against a good Giants defense. Landry’s 2021 fantasy value will largely be dependent on which other receivers are on the roster to compete for targets, but we know he has a very high floor when he is the number one receiver.