NFL Target Analysis: Week 13

I really like our season-long target leaderboard. I think it is fascinating to watch it evolve as the season goes along, and it can help put a player’s fantasy numbers into proper perspective. That being said, I think I am sometimes guilty of focusing too much on the target column and not enough on the other columns. After all, I chose those stats because I thought they were most useful, but I don’t always remember to use them. With that in mind, we will begin our analysis with one of the stats that is most instructive, especially this deep into the season: Catch Rate.

Catch Rate Leaders

• Keenan Allen is up to 12^th on our target leaderboard, and his 78.3 percent catch rate is second among wide receivers on our list to only Michael Thomas . I think Allen is widely regarded as being a notch below the elite wide receivers, and I don’t think that’s right. Now that he appears to have put his injury concerns behind him, I think he is every bit as good as the nine wide receivers ahead of him this season in PPR scoring. Allen now has a touchdown in four consecutive games after scoring just one touchdown through his first eight games.
• Amari Cooper only barely makes our list, but he is third among wide receivers with a 77.6 percent catch rate. Since joining the Cowboys, Cooper has an 86.2 percent catch rate, second only to Chris Godwin among wide receivers with at least 20 targets over that span. Cooper ranks 12^th among wide receivers in targets and is tied for sixth with Keenan Allen with 366 yards over those four weeks. Cooper also ranks sixth on our list in average yards per target this season, sandwiched between Michael Thomas and Travis Kelce .
• D.J. Moore is tied with Amari Cooper with 29 targets over the last four weeks, and his 79.3 percent catch rate over that span is impressive. Moore caught just four of eight targets for 44 yards against the lowly Tampa Bay defense last week, but he has the kind of upside (not to mention schedule) that makes him awfully intriguing if you are feeling a bit desperate in the fantasy playoffs.

Week 13 Target Standouts

Only 12 players reached double-digit targets in Week 13, including several of the usual suspects: Keenan Allen , Davante Adams , T.Y. Hilton , DeAndre Hopkins , Travis Kelce , Alvin Kamara , Christian McCaffrey and Zach Ertz and Antonio Brown . Some of the other names were quite shocking, and deserve a closer look.

• Curtis Samuel —Samuel caught six of 11 passes for 88 yards and also had one carry for eight yards. He is finally healthy after struggling to get on the field for the first 1 ½ seasons of his NFL career, and he might be the most dynamic athlete on Carolina’s roster. The biggest concern here is that Samuel and Moore are so similar that neither emerges as an every-week fantasy play. That being said, it is certainly possible this is just the start of Samuel’s breakout.
• Jordy Nelson —I honestly didn’t even know Jordy Nelson was still playing. I thought the Raiders had shut him down. He caught all 10 of his targets against arguably the worst defense in the NFL and he still didn’t reach 100 receiving yards. I didn’t see anything impressive on tape, but I will keep this performance in the back of my mind for DFS when Oakland faces Kansas City in Week 17.
• Bruce Ellington —Ellington had 10 targets Sunday to give him 26 over his last three games. Only 10 receivers have more targets over that span (including teammate Kenny Golladay ). That being said, Ellington’s average depth of target in those games is 4.42, comparable to Taylor Gabriel , Marcell Ateman and John Ross . Ellington is basically the new Golden Tate . He has a really nice floor for deep PPR leagues but his ceiling is extremely limited.
• Dalvin Cook —I was far more encouraged by his running than his receiving, but it is worth noting Cook had 10 targets in this game and he now has at least three receptions in six of his seven games this season. I think the only concern with him is health, though I might be worried if Minnesota acquires a pass-catching running back in the offseason.

Other Notable Players

• Stefon Diggs is tied for eighth on our target leaderboard, but he is fourth in targets per game. Diggs entered Week 13 as a game-time decision and caught all five of his targets for 49 yards. It appears he got through that game unscathed, which makes him a must-start in Week 14.
• Golden Tate had his best game as an Eagle in Week 13, with seven catches on seven targets for 85 yards, a touchdown and a two-point conversion. Tate actually had fewer targets than in Weeks 11 and 12, but this is the most he has done with them. I would still want to see it one more time before I would trust it, and if you’ve made it to the playoffs with Tate on your team, you can probably afford to bench him in Week 14.
• It seems fitting that the last four players on our target leaderboard in catch rate are Corey Davis , Allen Robinson , Michael Crabtree and John Brown . It is probably safe to say we can blame all four of those more on the quarterbacks than the receivers, and I think I would expect all four to be at least slightly better in 2019.