NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for NFL Super Wild Card Saturday

Just because the regular season is over doesn’t mean we’re stopping with the NFL content; in fact the fun has just begun! We have two games today on this Super Wild Card Saturday, beginning with the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans followed by the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs in what could be one of the coldest games in NFL history. We will be watching to see how the weather affects Tyreek Hill in his return to Kansas City and if the Browns can continue making magic with Joe Flacco under center, but if that’s not your cup of tea, there are plenty of other stats to choose from for today’s games.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! Let’s look at some of the options available on the first day of the NFL playoffs.
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David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
As much as I wanted to take the yardage here, I was a little scared off by Njoku’s usage the last time these two teams met when it became the Amari Cooper show, so I’m taking the receptions instead. Over the last four games he’s played, Njoku has had at least six catches, and he’s hit this number in seven of the last eight games he’s played. On the season, he’s seen 123 targets, good for third at the position, and with the Texans allowing the second-most receptions per game to the tight end, Njoku is set up to have another great game here. Even if Amari Cooper steals the show again, look for Njoku to have a good showing.
Pick: David Njoku more than 5.5 receptions (1.79x)
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
It feels very strange to count out Tyreek Hill here, especially after the success he had earlier in the season, but there are several factors that have me lowering expectations for the Cheetah in this matchup. While your run-of-the-mill cold weather usually doesn’t affect the game in a major way, this is EXTREME cold, and with some wind thrown in there, it’s going to be hard to make an impact in the passing game. Hill has also had a down few weeks, only hitting more than this mark in just one of his last four games, and while he doesn’t hold a questionable designation going into the game today, something just hasn’t looked right with him lately. He’s dealt with injuries for the past few weeks, even coming out of the game on the last snap of the game against the Buffalo Bills, and it may not take much to reaggravate those injuries in the cold weather. The Chiefs defense has also been very effective against wide receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game to the position, so there are just too many factors working against Hill to hit this mark today.
Pick: Tyreek Hill less than 83.5 receiving yards (1.73x)
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes has been up and down all season long, and while I think he could have a good day against the Dolphins in normal conditions, the weather here is going to hinder his production in a big way. The cold and wind is not ideal for his style of play, and with Travis Kelce taking a step back recently, he is going to have to rely on his somewhat unreliable weapons elsewhere. His passing total average has also fallen over the last three weeks, dropping to 203 passing yards per game from an average of 246.4 on the season. Mahomes is a great quarterback and one of the best in the league, but don’t expect a big day from him today.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes less than 245.5 passing yards (1.75x)
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Player News
Ravens signed DT John Jenkins to a one-year contract.
The 35-year-old 13th-year pro slides in as a 1-for-1 Michael Pierce replacement after the former Raven retired in March. Although strictly a two-down player, Jenkins actually played a new career high 606 snaps for the Raiders last season. He probably won’t reach that total in Baltimore, but he should see plenty of work as a run-stopper.
49ers signed K Greg Joseph.
The 30-year-old journeyman spent time with each of the Giants, Commanders and Jets last season. He’ll serve as a veteran, in-house option should third-year pro Jake Moody look shaky this summer after an underwhelming 2024.
49ers signed Brock Purdy to a five-year, $265 million contract extension.
Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, Purdy gets $181 million in total guarantees with $165.1 million in the first three new years. He is now under contract through 2030. The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant flashed in a handful of starts as a rookie and immediately proved to be Kyle Shanahan’s next efficiency phenom in 2023 with 4,280 yards and 31 scores. Purdy’s numbers fell in 2024, but he did enough to keep the offense on the tracks despite a rash of injuries, even if the 49ers lumbered to a 6-11 record. Purdy managed 3,864 yards and 20 scores in 15 games and showed an improved ability to work out of structure and under pressure. Though he may not have a truly elite ceiling, Purdy is beginning to beat the system quarterback allegations after just two seasons as the full-time starter. With the league’s easiest schedule on tap for 2025, expect a rebound from Purdy and the entire team this year.
Jets released K Greg Zuerlein.
Defensive end Michael Fletcher was signed in a corresponding move. Zuerlein has kicked for the Jets since 2022. He suffered a knee injury last year and briefly returned before being placed back on injured reserve. Zuerlein appeared in eight games and went a dreadful 9-of-15 on his field goal tries. The 60 percent hit rate was by far the worst of his career. Now 37 years old, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Legatron hang up the cleats for good after being released. If he wants to keep kicking, another team will be more than willing to at least give him a camp battle to win.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter said his guess is that the NFL will ban the tush push during next week’s owners’ meeting.
Schefter didn’t cite any sources directly but reiterated the point later in the latest episode of The Adam Schefter Podcast, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the owners voted to outlaw the play. Losing the free touchdown play would undoubtedly hurt Philly’s offense and Jalen Hurts’ fantasy outlook, but it’s hard to imagine a team with Hurts, an elite offensive line, and Saquon Barkley not finding other ways to get in the end zone from a yard out. If the tush push is banned, it would likely just shuffle some of Hurts’ touchdowns to Barkley. Other teams including the Bills have experimented with similar plays, but no one has found as much success as the Eagles. The owners will also be voting on a change to the playoff seeding rules. The proposed change would seed teams based purely on their record instead of each division winner earning a top-four seed. While that may be a more logical way to do things, it’s certainly less fun.
Steelers beat writer Nick Farabaugh reports the team has called the Saints about a possible trade for Chris Olave.
According to Farabaugh, one source described the Steelers’ inquiry as “a due diligence call” while adding that a trade “doesn’t seem likely to happen” at this time. The Steelers trade George Pickens to the Cowboys just over a week ago, and are now looking at DK Metcalf, Roman Wilson, and Calvin Austin as their top options in three receiver sets. Of those three, Metcalf is the only receiver with notable NFL success, while Wilson effectively redshirted his rookie season due to injuries. Olave caught 32 passes for 400 yards and one touchdown for the Saints last season, but missed nine games due to multiple concussions he suffered. The four-year receiver posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons during his first two years in the league, and would provide an immediate upgrade to an underwhelming Steelers receiving corps. Farabaugh reports that in addition to a trade being unlikely, that the Saints do “not seem interested in trading Olave” at this time. The Saints picked up Olave’s fifth-year option last month, and will likely look to extend him in the not too distant future.