NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for NFL Super Wild Card Saturday
Just because the regular season is over doesn’t mean we’re stopping with the NFL content; in fact the fun has just begun! We have two games today on this Super Wild Card Saturday, beginning with the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans followed by the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs in what could be one of the coldest games in NFL history. We will be watching to see how the weather affects Tyreek Hill in his return to Kansas City and if the Browns can continue making magic with Joe Flacco under center, but if that’s not your cup of tea, there are plenty of other stats to choose from for today’s games.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! Let’s look at some of the options available on the first day of the NFL playoffs.
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David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
As much as I wanted to take the yardage here, I was a little scared off by Njoku’s usage the last time these two teams met when it became the Amari Cooper show, so I’m taking the receptions instead. Over the last four games he’s played, Njoku has had at least six catches, and he’s hit this number in seven of the last eight games he’s played. On the season, he’s seen 123 targets, good for third at the position, and with the Texans allowing the second-most receptions per game to the tight end, Njoku is set up to have another great game here. Even if Amari Cooper steals the show again, look for Njoku to have a good showing.
Pick: David Njoku more than 5.5 receptions (1.79x)
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
It feels very strange to count out Tyreek Hill here, especially after the success he had earlier in the season, but there are several factors that have me lowering expectations for the Cheetah in this matchup. While your run-of-the-mill cold weather usually doesn’t affect the game in a major way, this is EXTREME cold, and with some wind thrown in there, it’s going to be hard to make an impact in the passing game. Hill has also had a down few weeks, only hitting more than this mark in just one of his last four games, and while he doesn’t hold a questionable designation going into the game today, something just hasn’t looked right with him lately. He’s dealt with injuries for the past few weeks, even coming out of the game on the last snap of the game against the Buffalo Bills, and it may not take much to reaggravate those injuries in the cold weather. The Chiefs defense has also been very effective against wide receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game to the position, so there are just too many factors working against Hill to hit this mark today.
Pick: Tyreek Hill less than 83.5 receiving yards (1.73x)
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes has been up and down all season long, and while I think he could have a good day against the Dolphins in normal conditions, the weather here is going to hinder his production in a big way. The cold and wind is not ideal for his style of play, and with Travis Kelce taking a step back recently, he is going to have to rely on his somewhat unreliable weapons elsewhere. His passing total average has also fallen over the last three weeks, dropping to 203 passing yards per game from an average of 246.4 on the season. Mahomes is a great quarterback and one of the best in the league, but don’t expect a big day from him today.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes less than 245.5 passing yards (1.75x)
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Player News
Chargers signed EDGE Bud Dupree to a one-year contract extension.
After a productive first season with the Chargers, Dupree signed an extension to stick around for an additional season. The deal is for one year and worth up to $6 million, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. The 32-year-old finished last season with a 47.1 PFF grade, good for No. 188 among edge rushes; he totaled six sacks and an interception in the regular season. Dupree will play next to Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu again as part of the Chargers’ pass rush.
Lions signed OG Trystan Colon, formerly of the Cardinals, to a one-year contract.
The move gives Detroit some interior offensive line depth following center Frank Ragnow’s abrupt retirement. Colon started seven games at right guard for the Cardinals last season. He previously made starts at left guard in Arizona and earned a handful of spot starts at center while in Baltimore. His addition will create some flexibility in the trenches for Detroit even if he doesn’t win a starting job in camp.
Browns signed No. 94 overall pick QB Dillon Gabriel to a four-year contract.
Gabriel took the bulk of the first-team reps over Shedeur Sanders in rookie minicamp. The Browns have been mixing up the starter reps in OTAs and head coach Kevin Stefanski has said repeatedly not to read into the order of quarterback reps this early in the process. Joe Flacco looks like the best bet to be the team’s Week 1 starter, but at least one of the rookies, if not both, will start at some point this year. As the team’s first quarterback selection in the draft, Gabriel should get the first crack at the job once Stefanski benches his veteran of choice. Whether they want to admit it or not, this is a rebuilding season for Cleveland.
Broncos hosted free agent RB J.K. Dobbins for a visit.
The Chargers placed the UFA tender on Dobbins, meaning he has until training camp to negotiate with other teams. LA retains his rights if Dobbins doesn’t sign a deal elsewhere. The Broncos are extremely thin at running back even after spending the No. 60 overall pick on RJ Harvey. Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime are currently the candidates to back him up and both backs struggled to earn work in a talent-depleted backfield last year. Dobbins would provide a legitimate backup option for Sean Payton and could even steal some work from Harvey on early downs.
Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell said he feels “better than when I first got here.”
Mitchell was a home run waiting to happen as a rookie, turning 56 touches into 489 yards and two scores in 2023 before going down with a torn ACL late in the season. He returned late in the following season but didn’t have the same burst. He ran 15 times for 30 yards in five regular season appearances and did not touch the ball on offense in the playoffs. Even if Mitchell returns to form in 2025, there isn’t much room for him to carve out a meaningful role. Derrick Henry put together a career year in his first season with the Ravens and just re-upped his contract with the team. Justice Hill is also coming off a high-water mark campaign, racking up 42 receptions as the team’s third-down back. Mitchell may pitch in the occasional splash play, but fantasy managers don’t need to dig that deep in most formats.
Jaguars signed EDGE Dennis Gardeck, formerly of the Cardinals.
A former UDFA, Gardeck spent the first seven years of his NFL tenure in Arizona, working his way up from a special teams role as a rookie to pass-rush specialist duties later in his career. He broke out with seven sacks in 2020 and reached six sacks in 2023. Primed for a 2024 breakout, Gardeck notched three sacks before tearing his ACL in Week 7. Assuming his recovery goes well, Gardeck projects for a part-time role on the Jags defense to open the year.