While tonight’s match-up between the Jaguars and the Dolphins isn’t what you would call marquee, it could still be a fun game to watch, especially when you think about struggling secondaries, gun-slinging quarterbacks and excessive facial hair. And if you want to add a little spice to watching the game, well why not throw five bucks into a single-entry GPP and maybe getting a little something extra out of it?
Please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -3
O/U: 48.5
Betting Facts:
Line has stayed at 3 but the over/under started at 48 and went up a half-point in the last 24 hours.
Money Line: Jaguars -157; Dolphins +138
Jaguars are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite
Dolphins are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games following a loss
Weather: High 70s and partly cloudy with a 10% chance of precipitation; winds SE 10 mph
Last 5 Match-Ups:
Dolphins lead 3-2
Average margin of victory of all games: 10.4
Last Match-Up: Jaguars beat the Dolphins 17-7 on 12/23/2018
Notable Injuries:
Jaguars:
D.J. Chark , WR (chest – OUT)
Dolphins:
none
Prop Bets to Watch:
The reason we are listing these here is to help you understand what the Vegas expectations are. If you aren’t routinely amazed by how accurate spreads and totals are, you haven’t been paying attention and you’re missing out on a valuable tool. Take a look at the list below and understand how to utilize for DFS. When you see the over and under have the same money line, that’s Vegas’ way of saying it can go either way. You have the base number and can determine whether you use a player or not based on that. But when there is a different money line on the over and unders (highlighted in green), Vegas is telling you what to expect. A negative money line means they feel it is more likely to happen which can help you make decisions regarding which players to play.
Ryan Fitzpatrick Passing Yards 267.5 (o/u -112); TD Passes 1.5 (over -124; under +100)
Gardner Minshew Passing Yards 269.5 (o/u -112); TD Passes 1.5 (over -167; under +134)
Myles Gaskin Rushing Yards 39.5 (o/u -112)
James Robinson Rushing Yards 74.5 (o/u -112)
Keelan Cole Receiving Yards 47.5 (over +100; under -124)
Laviska Shenault Receiving Yards 33.5 (o/u -112)
DeVante Parker Receiving Yards (60.5 (o/u -112)
Preston Williams Receiving Yards (over -124; under +100)
Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards 49.5 (over -139; under +112)
Tyler Eifert receiving Yards 29.5 (o/u -112)
Here’s a breakdown of which players we suggest looking at for tonight:
Quarterbacks:
Gardner Minshew, JAC – A solid effort in Week 1 (173 yards with 3 TD) followed up by a 300-yard effort with another three touchdowns against the Titans. He can extend plays with his legs, runs if he needs to and seems to have a good presence regarding locating his receivers. Most of the money in Vegas is on the Jags which tilts me towards the Dolphins which could mean Minshew throws heavy again. Worthy of captain/MVP consideration.
Ryan Fitzpatrick , MIA – Week 1 was a mess, but his follow-up against Buffalo was strong with over 300 yards passing and two touchdowns. With a somewhat suspect backfield, Fitzpatrick likes to take control of a game and air it out. His receivers have decent match-ups and this game definitely has the potential of becoming a bit of a second-half shootout. Fitz could definitely chuck the ball around, so using him as your captain/MVP could work well.
Running Backs:
James Robinson, JAC – He’s received 16 carries per game through the first two weeks as the Jags have been surprisingly competitive. His first 100-yard effort came against a good but not great Titans run defense and now he gets Miami who has been soft this season and has allowed an average of 164 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks. The Jags should lead with the run again and he should continue to see his regular workload. Is he captain/MVP worthy in a Showdown slate? We’ll leave it as a definite maybe.
Myles Gaskin, MIA – He’s only averaged eight carries per game, but he also has 10 catches over the first two weeks and looks like he’s grabbed a hold of the lead in this backfield. He’s not going to dazzle anyone with eye-popping totals so he’s probably not good for the captain/NVP slot, but if he can catch another five passes and maybe find the end zone once, he will return value.
Jordan Howard , MIA – Anyone who has more carries than yards isn’t looking good unless it’s a touchdown-only league which the Showdown is not. Still, as a dart-throw, he does get the goal line work and that might be worth something in a game like this.
Chris Thompson , JAC – He’s still seeing a decent snap count and played in 41% of the snaps last week. The Jags haven’t been forced into catch-up mode just yet, so the check-downs aren’t what we’ve expected. Still, for the Showdown slate, he could be an intriguing dart throw as the Jags could get the ball to him on a screen once inside the 10-yard line.
Wide Receivers:
DeVante Parker , MIA – He is off the injury report and his hamstring is just fine. The match-up with Tre Herndon grades out as a positive one and with everyone looking for Preston Williams to break out, he makes for a nice contrarian pick in this one, possibly even worthy of the Captain/MVP slot.
Preston Williams, MIA – He is going to be shadowed by rookie C.J. Henderson who is looking like the real deal this season. Talking heads among the beat writers and fantasy pundits are looking for a breakout game from Williams, but this is a tough match-up for him. If using multiple lineups tonight, he should get a look, but not sure it’s trustworthy enough for the top spot.
Isaiah Ford , MIA – Ford has seen 65-75% of the snaps through the first two games and his 14 targets thus far is a nice number to lean on. He’s going to see D.J. Hayden in coverage a lot and that actually grades out as a very positive match-up. While everyone is using both Parker and Williams, you may want to put Ford in for one of them and go against the grain.
Jakeem Grant , MIA – He’s, at best, a dart throw, as he’s lost his snaps to Ford. We’d probably leave him off tonight’s lineup.
Keelan Cole , JAC – He’s been a favorite target for Minshew coming out of the slot and has a plus match-up against slot corner Nik Needham. We like the fact that he’s averaged six targets per game but even more so that he’s seeing the red zone looks and has already scored two touchdowns.
Laviska Shenault, JAC – He spends most of his snaps lining up on the outside and will see a lot of Xavien Howard . He’s got good size and speed but doesn’t see a whole lot of volume.
Chris Conley , JAC – He’s a dart throw at best unless Chark is out, but it’s worth noting that he saw an increase in snaps at the expense of Shenault during their Week 2 loss to Tennessee. He’s a big body with some speed who is able to get positioning even in press-man coverage.
Tight Ends:
Mike Gesicki , MIA – Love the way they are lining Gesicki up on the outside as well as in the slot. In fact, he’s used as a receiver almost as much as he is used as a tight end. The Jags have allowed a league-high 114 yards per game to opposing tight ends and with the secondary not looking all that strong either, he could be a great play, possibly even deserving of captain/MVP consideration.
Tyler Eifert , JAC – He saw three red zone targets last week and hauled in his first touchdown of the season, but Miami has been pretty stingy against the tight end this season. Maybe he gets a touchdown, but the targets and the yards simply won’t be there.
Defense/Kickers:
Miami Dolphins D/ST – nope
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST – doubtful
Brandon Wright, JAC – He’s making his debut after the Jags just threw Josh Lambo onto IR for the season. He should see ample opportunities, but neither defense seems strong enough to warrant using kickers in the Showdown.
Jason Sanders , MIA – He’s got a strong leg and he’s accurate. If you like using a kicker to save salary, he’s the one we’d use.
If you are looking for lineup help, check out our NFL Lineup Generator which can be adjusted for Showdown Slates.