Welcome to the Sunday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 3!

What a match-up we’ve got tonight with the surging Green Bay Packers heading down to the Superdome to take on The New Orleans Saints. Even without Michael Thomas or Davante Adams in the game, there is a ton of strong talent on the board, all with some very interesting match-ups. Vegas is telling us to expect a lot of scoring in this one still, so expect a lot of people to be leaning on the chalk. We’ll mine for some contrarian picks for sure, so let’s get at it.

Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -3

O/U: 53

Betting Facts:

Line opened at Saints -3.5 but dropped a half-point mid-week; the over/under started at 54 and went down a point with word that Adams was being considered doubtful for this game

Money Line: Saints -162; Packers +143

The over is 2-0 in the Packers’ last two road games

The Saints are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 home games

Weather: irrelevant…it’s under a dome

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Saints lead 3-2, Saints have won the last two meetings at home

Average margin of victory of all games: 12.2

Last Match-Up: Saints beat the Packers 26-17 on 10/22/2017

Notable Injuries:

Saints:

Michael Thomas (ankle – out)

Packers:

Davante Adams (hamstring – doubtful)

Prop Bets to Watch:

The reason we are listing these here is to help you understand what the Vegas expectations are. If you aren’t routinely amazed by how accurate spreads and totals are, you haven’t been paying attention and you’re missing out on a valuable tool. Take a look at the list below and understand how to utilize for DFS. When you see the over and under have the same money line, that’s Vegas’ way of saying it can go either way. You have the base number and can determine whether you use a player or not based on that. But when there is a different money line on the over and unders (highlighted in green), Vegas is telling you what to expect. A negative money line means they feel it is more likely to happen which can help you make decisions regarding which players to play.

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards 249.5 (over & under -112); TD passes 1.5 (over -143; under +115)

Drew Brees Passing Yards 278.5 (over & under -112); TD passes 1.5 (over -230; under +179)

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards 71.5 (over & under -112)

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards 71.5 (over +115; under -130)

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards 47.5 (over & under -112)

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards 27.5 (over & under -112)

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards 35.5 (over +100; under -124)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards 48.5 (over & under -110)

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards 55.5 (over & under -112)

Emmanuel Sanders Receiving Yards 49.5 (over +100; under -124)

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards 46.5 (over & under -112)

Jared Cook Receiving Yards 49.5 (over & under -112)

Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards 22.5 (over & under -112)

Here’s a breakdown of which players we suggest looking at for tonight:

Quarterbacks:

Aaron Rodgers , GB – He loses out with no Davnate Adams, but has decent enough pass-catchers to keep him rolling. However, with such a solid rushing option as Jones, he may not need to throw as heavily. Also has Marshon Lattimore taking away one side of the field.

Drew Brees , NO – Seems to have lost a step and was a little lost without Michael Thomas , but based on my game flow assessment and what the Vegas lines are on his passing yards, he would be the QB I would use. Alvin Kamara gives him an added boost given how many passes he catches out of the backfield.

Taysom Hill , NO – He’s that annoying boom or bust dart-throw. Can gain points passing, rushing and receiving, so if you’re making multiple lineups, he warrants consideration.

Running Backs:

Aaron Jones , GB – Coming off a huge game in Week 2 and Matt LaFleur loves running him hard. Saints defense has only allowed an average of 101 rushing yards per game thus far, but they rank 26th in DVOA against RB pass-plays. Definitely warrants consideration for Captain/MVP spot.

Jamaal Williams , GB – Just a dart-throw, but not one we recommend using as Jones owns this backfield.

Alvin Kamara , NO – Definite Captain/MVP worthiness as the Saints allow 111.5 rushing yards per game and rank 24th in DVOA against RB pass-plays. Brees continues to lean on him with Michael Thomas out.

Latavius Murray , NO – If you think the Saints lead this one in the second half, then Murray could help chew up the clock, but likely nothing more than a dart-throw given the match-up and high points-total projection by Vegas.

Wide Receivers:

Marquez Valdes-Scantling , GB – He’s been fairly reliable even with Davante Adams on the field, so he should be Rodgers’ No. 1 receiving target. Will probably see more of Lattimore than Allen Lazard , but will be moved around enough to give him solid value.

Allen Lazard , GB – Like him a lot in this match-up and he’s a decent deep threat as well. If the Saints consider MVS the top guy, they’ll use Lattimore on him; not quite a shadow, but could move him around a little depending on just how much Rodgers targets him early. Tht leaves Lazard in a much better spot.

Malik Taylor, GB – A dart-throw at best; probably not worth the effort.

Emmanuel Sanders , NO – Disappointing game in Week 2 as Brees barely looked for him. Likely to see a lot of Jaire Alexander , so it’s definitely a tough match-up. He would make for a decent contrarian play to oppose those investing more in Tre'Quan Smith  who led the team in targets last week.

Tre'Quan Smith , NO – Seemed to have a nice rapport with Brees and was reliable when they needed to move the chains. That relationship could blossom even more on the field as we expect Brees to be throwing more in this one. If making a ton of lineups, he could be floated into the Captain/MVP spot, but that’s not exactly reliable.

Deonte Harris, NO – Another dart-throw. Could get some action, but unlikely to see more than a small handful of targets.

Marquez Callaway, NO – Who?

Tight Ends:

Robert Tonyan , GB – Could end up with a look or two inside the end zone and may even catch a touchdown as the Saints have struggled against the tight end this season. He’s a dart-throw we would try out just for that aspect, but don’t expect a lot of yardage.

Marcedes Lewis , GB – He’s also a dart-throw at a position the Packers just don’t utilize enough in the passing game. Possible contrarian pick to go against the grain, but longshot odds, at best.

Jace Sternberger, GB – Same as Lewis, though he did see a couple of targets last week. Again, the Saints are struggling to cover the tight end and they got beat big by O.J. Howard and Darren Waller , but Sternberger is neither of those guys.

Jared Cook , NO – The Packers rank dead last in DVOA against the tight end and have allowed an average of 50.5 yards per game to them through the first two weeks. Cook should be a decent option, though after his TD catch last week he got ghosted until late in the fourth quarter. We like him over all the other TE options in this game and if you are playing multiple lineups, he could be a Captain/MVP option if you want to go against the grain.

Adam Trautman, NO – He’s a dart-throw but with no Josh Hill , maybe he sees an extra target or two. Minimal upside though.

Defense/Kickers:

Green Bay Packers D/ST – Can capitalize on turnovers and there are some decent ball hawks in the secondary. Is that enough to counter how many points the Saints could score? Probably not. This game has a big ol’ total that, even if the game doesn’t hit the over, it could be close.

New Orleans Saints D/ST – Way too many penalties last week and they allowed the Raiders to run roughshod all over them. They can be opportunistic on defense, but it might be tough to rely on turnovers.

Mason Crosby , GB – If you like saving salary in order to get both Jones and Kamara into your lineup, Crosby is worth checking out. He should see ample opportunities both on FGs and extra-points.

Wil Lutz , NO – Same thing we just said about Crosby applies here and if you agree that Brees has lost a step, then maybe he gets more FG chances.

If you are looking for lineup help, check out our NFL Lineup Generator which can be adjusted for Showdown Slates.