NFL DFS Optimal Lineups: Mon-Sat (Weeks 15/16)

With the NFL schedule changing, we are moving from our usual two-game Monday-Thursday slate to one that stretches to Saturday. No Thursday night football for you, so find something else to do. Maybe get some of that last-minute holiday shopping done. And wouldn't it be nice if you had some extra cash to do it? Well, winning on this slate might be too late for shopping, but it will sure make that egg nog taste sweeter Saturday night!

As a result of the change, we are now moving to a three-game slate. I'll provide you with some thoughts for each of the games and from there, offer up some example lineups you are more than willing to use as a foundation for the ones you build yourself. Remember, we are not lineup sellers. The whole point is to help you establish your own process and from there, learn to be a better DFS player.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line: Bucs +6.5 (O/U 48.5)

Falcons:

Run Defense: ranked 30th (108.3 rush ypg & 8 rush TD allowed)

Pass Defense: ranked 17th (212 pass ypg & 17 pass TD allowed; ranked 24th vs RB pass plays)

Bucs:

Run Defense: ranked 22nd (113.2 rush ypg & 14 rush TD allowed)

Pass Defense: ranked 31st (276 pass ypg & 20 pass TD allowed; ranked 23rd vs RB pass plays)

A lot of who you want to use for DFS in this one is based in the potential game flow. I think the Bucs are going to try to control the pace of this game and open with a relatively heavy run scheme and attack the Falcons weak run defense. We'll likely see a mix of Peyton Barber and Doug Martin until one clearly outshines the other and then, head coach Dirk Koetter can roll with the hot hand. Unfortunately, we may not have time to see who develops into the lead dog because the Falcons are probably going to jump out to an early lead and force the Bucs in abandoning the run and having Jameis Winston chucking it downfield as much as he can. The Falcons will mix it up early and the hope ias that both Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu find the end zone, but ultimately, I think this game belongs in the hands of Devonta Freeman. With no Tevin Coleman, I see Freeman toting the rock quite a bit, particularly in the second half when they're trying to run out the clock.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

Line: Ravens -13.5 (O/U 41.5)

Colts:

Run Defense: ranked 10th (124.4 rush ypg & 14 rush TD allowed)

Pass Defense: ranked 30th (257 pass ypg & 21 pass TD allowed; ranked 32nd vs RB pass plays)

Ravens:

Run Defense: ranked 8th (110.1 rush ypg & 12 rush TD allowed)

Pass Defense: ranked 2nd (215 pass ypg & 14 pass TD allowed; ranked 17th vs RB pass plays)

After watcing the Ravens terrorize DeShone Kizer who works behind a much better offensive line, I just don't know if Jacoby Brissett is going to be able to get anything going here. The Colts will try to run it with Frank Gore, but I don't see him having much success against this defense. While many will hope Brissett hits T.Y. Hilton for some long downfield gains, I think Jack Doyle is the guy who sees the majority of the work. The Ravens rank 31st in coverage against the tight end and are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to them. For the Ravens, I like the tight end position as well which means we can whisper Benjamin Watson's name one more time. The Colts rank 24th in coverage against the position and give up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to them. I do also like Alex Collins and Mike Wallace here. Collins was a bit of a disappoiontment last week, but hopefully it served as a wake-up call for him. As for Wallace, if he's healthy, these Colts defensive backs won't be able to contain him.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Line: Off (O/U Off)

Vikings:

Run Defense: ranked 11th (85.3 rush ypg & 10 rush TD allowed)

Pass Defense: ranked 9th (199 pass ypg & 13 pass TD allowed; ranked 3rd vs RB pass plays)

Packers:

Run Defense: ranked 7th (116.4 rush ypg & 9 rush TD allowed)

Pass Defense: ranked 20th (240 pass ypg & 26 pass TD allowed; ranked 19th vs RB pass plays)

There are a lot of question marks about this game that actually hinge on the Falcon/Bucs match-up. If the Falcons win, the Packers are eliminated from the playoffs and there's a very good chance the team puts Aaron Rodgers on the shelf. So really, where do you go? If Brett Hundley is under center, I think you can like Jamaal Williams again, though Aaron Jones will continue to eat into his workload and could, potentially, out-snap him. Then you've got Davante Adams in concussion protocol and te million dollar question of where the heck is Jordy Nelson? Is he back or isn't he? Tough one to call, but I suppose if you don't overcommit to the Falcons/Bucs game, you'll have time to adjust your lineups and swap some guys out. As for the Vikings, they're competing for home field advantage throughout the playoffs, so it's all ands on deck here. Packers run D has been solid but they've struggled against running back pass plays so I expect Jerick McKinnon to have the bigger game. Adam Thielen is going to contend with Morgan Burnett all game so I might fade him and roll with Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph. We all saw what Greg Olsen did to the Packers this week, so Rudolph should make for a solid play.

As for the example lineups: