NFL Week 5 brings us a battle between NFC South contenders as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Atlanta Falcons and we’re ready to cash in with our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.

 

 

 

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are off to a strong 3-1 start after taking down the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but the quarterback ended up in hot water with his remarks that suggested the team wasn’t having any fun with Tom Brady there.

Meanwhile, expectations were riding high for Atlanta with the coaching change, but so far, Kirk Cousins and the rest of the team have been a bit of a disappointment. The off-field stuff isn’t going to affect our NFL predictions, but how these teams have looked on the field to date certainly will. 

Let’s look at some data against the spread and how these teams match up as we look to finalize our NFL picks and set up our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Thursday Night Football Week 5, 10/3

Divisional opponents always offer some good historical data for us to explore and just a cursory glance shows us just how important Tom Brady was to Tampa for this rivalry. Overall, Tampa leads this series 31-30 straight up with the Bucs winning the last match-up but Atlanta winning the two previous meetings. But Brady under center saw Tampa winning consistently, taking six of seven from 2020 through 2022.

Against the spread, however, the teams have split evenly over their last 10 games, so using that for our NFL picks isn’t exactly helpful. This season, Tampa Bay is 3-1 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread. They were a 7.5-point underdog in their only road game and beat Detroit outright. 

The Falcons, on the other hand, are 2-2 straight-up but 1-3 against the spread and are actually 0-3 against the spread at home this year. Can they win this game? Can they cover as a 1.5-point home dog? Before we set up our final card for our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, let’s look at some potential game-flow and how it will affect our NFL predictions.  

 

 

 

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Thursday, October 3rd 

While both offensive coordinators, Liam Coen and Zac Robinson continue to look to pass the ball more, both may try to take a more methodical approach this week and establish a strong rushing attack. The Falcons are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game (145.5) and have coughed up four rushing touchdowns. 

The Bucs haven’t been much better, allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game (131.5) and seven rushing touchdowns this season. Of course, both rushing attacks have been underutilized this season, so while we might see a decent amount of Bijan Robinson, Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, both teams may abandon the ground game too quickly if it’s not proving to be effective.

If we’re taking it to the air, then our NFL predictions will likely favor the Buccaneers. Mayfield has a 106.9 QB rating with a strong completion rate and solid yardage totals. A look at some DVOA and coverage numbers tells me they’re going to have some trouble containing Mike Evans. 

He averages a little more than five catches for about 80 yards per game against them and has three touchdowns in his last five. Even with a bum hamstring, Chris Olave hauled in eight grabs for 87 yards against A.J. Terrell and Mike Hughes. Once Mayfield and Evans establish themselves, the Bucs can then spread it around as the Falcons make their coverage adjustments.

The key for the Falcons is getting their passing game in order. Cousins still doesn’t look right, and he has yet to really connect with Drake London or Kyle Pitts. It feels like he’s on the same page with Darnell Mooney, but without utilizing his top two receiving threats, how effective is this passing attack going to be? The best word to describe it is ‘mediocre’ and that’s being generous.

As we look to finalize our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, it seems like it’s coming down to coaching and quarterback play here. I would like for both teams to run the football, but young coordinators who copycat Sean McVey tend to lean on the pass a whole lot more. If that’s the case here, then we can finalize our NFL picks.

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Best Bet: Thursday, October 3rd

So much for home-field advantage as the Falcons fail to capitalize on a very favorable travel schedule to open the season. They’ve played three home games, lost two of them, and failed to cover the spread in each one. The Bucs have a solid rushing attack and an even better passing game. 

The Falcons have yet to uncork Bijan and are spending way too much time relying on Cousins who just doesn’t seem to be at 100-percent. The point spread is close enough for a pick’em here, so we’ll side with the team we believe will win this one outright even though underdogs have a slight advantage ATS in prime-time games. The spread is too close for me to waver.

 

 

 

The under is where everyone seems to want to go for their NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football no matter who the teams are right now. The short week is always prevalent and both teams this week played some hard-nosed football the week prior to get their wins. 

While both coordinators should be running the football, I don’t think either one holds to it, and we see more misfires in the passing attack than we really should. We also have decent secondaries on both teams so that will likely help stifle some scoring., I’m feeling like more field goals than touchdowns.

 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks For TNF, 10/3

**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.  

 

 

 

How To Bet On Thursday Night Football At BetMGM Sportsbook & Claim Your $1,500 Bonus With Promo Code ALARM

Are you ready with your NFL picks and NFL predictions for NFL Week 5? It’s time to continue building our bankroll with our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football and if you haven’t used BetMGM Sportsbook yet, you need to take advantage of this spectacular offer before you jump into the action. 

Before you make your NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football, go to BetMGM Sportsbook and use this link to sign up with BetMGM promo code ALARM and get this featured bonus. To claim, new users need to register, make a first-time deposit of $10 or more using promo code ALARM, place your first wager and receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if the bet loses! 

If the bet does lose, your bonus bets will be available once your initial wager is settled. Get in on the action now and start placing those NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football before the game begins!