NFL Best Bets For Sunday Week 5: Picks, Predictions & Player Props
NFL Week 5 is here, and we’ve got a fantastic slate of games on tap for this Sunday. Of course, it’s a smaller slate than usual due to four teams being on a bye, but still, plenty of opportunities for us to cash in this weekend with our NFL Best Bets for Week 5.
We had another solid Sunday effort with our NFL picks last week, going 4-3 and finishing the week after Monday’s game with a small profit. Vikings fans are still giving me a ton of crap for picking the Packers and while I did lose that bet, it was getting a little too close for some people’s comfort in the second half. Minnesota needed some late-game defensive heroics to stop the bleeding and escape with the win.
We did hit the Saints covering the spread, though they lost the game, and we were one of very few people who hit with the over on the Colts/Steelers game. As for the prop bets, we split 2-2, but the reads for our NFL predictions were on for all of them save for the Jets screwing over Breece hall n touches, but that’s a complaint for another time.
We have a lot of tight games this week, according to the latest Vegas odds, so let’s dive in and see who we like for our NFL Best Bets for Week 5.
NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Week 5 Sunday, 10/6
This is going to be a very interesting week for our NFL predictions. If you look up and down the betting card, you’ll notice that only three games have a point spread greater than five right now.
You have the San Francisco 49ers favored by 7.5 over Arizona, the Seahawks are favored by seven over the Giants and then the Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite over the Saints on Monday Night Football. After taking a bath on a lot of underdogs hitting, the books have tightened right up which will make it more difficult for your NFL picks.
But we don’t let that scare us off. We get that Vegas is just trying to make its money and in doing so, they need to tighten things up right now. We will make the proper adjustments in our NFL Best Bets for Week 5 and go with the games we feel we have the best read on, regardless of point-spreads.
We aren’t going to change our process. We have our reads on the games, we have the against-the-spread data that is relevant, and we will make sure, come the end of the game, we are on the right side of cashing.
NFL Week 5 Predictions: Sunday, October 6th
Before I lay out my NFL picks for the week and set up my NFL Best Bets for Week 5, I feel it’s important to point you towards all of the great content we continue to produce here at Fantasy Alarm. Reading through it all will help you make the best possible choices.
Our weekly Game Previews are always available, and you should be checking in with all of the great NFL content, whether it’s for season-long fantasy football, DFS or betting. All of it is going to be helpful. Gather the information and make an informed NFL prediction.
Now let’s get to the action and see who we like for our NFL Best Bets for Week 5.
Packers vs. Rams Best Bet: Sunday, October 6th
You look at the point spread and wonder how in the world it could be so close given how good Jordan Love looked last week and how bad the Rams have been all year, but you need to take another look at this Packers defense and ask yourself how the Vikings were able to blow them out in the first half with 28 points.
It’s all about the defensive injuries. Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt are banged up in the middle of that defensive line, Edgerrin Cooper who works s part of a linebacker rotation is hurt and the secondary is taking hits as Jaire Alexander and Carrington Valentine are still listed as questionable after missing practices during the week.
That’s how the Vikings were able to do it and how the Rams are going to do everything in their power to do it as well. Except the Rams offensive line is still a mess and defensively, the Rams are one of the absolute worst in the NFL right now.
As good as their offense can be, I just don’t see them being able to match the firepower of the Packers. We’ll take the road favorite here even though the one time the Rams covered the spread was at home against the 49ers.
- Pick: Packers -3 (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Giants vs. Seahawks Best Bet: Sunday, October 6th
Far less explanation is needed for this game as I believe the Seahawks can handily beat the Giants, especially at home in Seattle. The Giants are dealing with injuries to both Devin Singletary and Malik Nabers and it’s difficult to see them keeping pace with the Seahawks.
Ryan Grubb has this Seattle offense humming and the Giants, making that long, cross-country trip are going to be road weary. They do have a solid defense which is why I’ll avoid the back-door cover possibilities and just stick with the game total. Should be a bit of a lopsided effort and when one team isn’t scoring, I like to favor the under.
- Pick: Under 43 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Colts vs. Jaguars Best Bet: Sunday, October 6th
Andrew Cooper will tell you I just like rooting against fun, but I more prefer winning, unlike either of these two teams. There’s a lot to be concerned with, though, so before you make the bet, check in with the latest practice and injury reports.
It sounds like Anthony Richardson will play but Jonathan Taylor may not. We also are waiting on the status of both Travis Etienne and Evan Engram. Without them, both teams will have issues scoring, regardless of how bad their defenses are.
If you’ve watched the Colts and Jaguars, these offensive units have routinely shot themselves in the foot and there is little reason to believe they won’t do it again. Even though it’s Week 5, both teams will be desperate, and desperation usually leads to mistakes.
- Pick: Under 46 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks: Sunday, 10/6
- Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Interceptions (+115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Geno Smith Passing Attempts Over 32.5 (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Amari Cooper Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-135 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Amari Cooper Anytime TD (+200 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Beat reporter John Hendrix reports that free agent WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is among the 16 players that the Saints will host for their rookie minicamp.
Peoples-Jones last played regular season snaps with the Lions back in 2023, when he caught 13-of-24 targets for 155 yards. He is highly unlikely to return to fantasy relevance at this point but could perhaps sign on as a special teams contributor.
Titans signed fourth-round pick WR Elic Ayomanor to a four-year contract.
Ayomanor will now begin learning behind Calvin Ridley. Although Ayomanor is unlikely to find a meaningful role in year one, dynasty managers should note his status as training camp gets underway this summer. The former Stanford receiver flashed big-play ability in his two college seasons.
Buccaneers signed seventh-round pick WR Tez Johnson to a four-year contract.
Johnson will serve as a rotational deep-threat option for Baker Mayfield. His thin frame (5'10/154) simply does not lend itself to the repeated hits one incurs in a full-time role. Johnson did earn 100-plus targets in his two seasons at Oregon, though. His big-play style make him a better fit in best ball for now, pending any major on-field breakthroughs.
Giants waived DT Casey Rogers.
Rogers was a 2024 undrafted free agent and logged 33 defensive snaps for the Giants in his rookie season. He is credited with zero tackles and/or sacks. He may find his way onto another roster as a practice squad option.
Vikings signed third-round pick WR Tai Felton to a four-year contract.
Felton is quietly in play to challenge Vikings No. 3 WR Jalen Nailor in training camp. Nailor (5'11/190) caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starter last year, with the latter category buoying his fantasy productivity. Felton (6'1/183), meanwhile, caught 96-of-143 targets for 1,119 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 2.32 yards per route run in his final college season. Fantasy managers should monitor Felton’s training camp reports this summer, as he could have a matchup-based WR5 role if everything falls into place.