NFL Week 1 Best Bets: New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Picks for Monday Night Football
NFL Week 1 caps off with a fantastic AFC East rivalry as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills travel downstate to take on Aaron Rodgers and the new-look New York Jets. If you checked in on the Bettor Sports Betting Show on Friday or checked out my best bets on Sunday in the Fantasy Alarm Discord, then you know we’ve gotten off to an amazing start. In fact, my NFL Week 1 picks on Friday went 7-1 (8-1 if you included my Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing touchdowns sidebar) and the bets I posted in Discord went 4-1-1. Now it’s a matter of carrying that momentum into the Monday Night Football game. I will try to keep my Jets fandom out of it, but to say I am excited for this game and this start to the football betting season would be an understatement.
NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
The Spread: Bills -2
Over the past five seasons, the favorites have won 68.6-percent of all Monday Night Football games, but the underdogs are 45-39-2 (53.6%) against the spread. Even with a future Hall of Famer under center, the Jets defense is still their strongest attribute. The secondary, led by Sauce Gardner, is one of the best and their defensive line is more than capable of stuffing the run. Outside of drafting rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid, the Bills didn’t do much to improve on their offense. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has always said he wants to run the football more, so I expect both teams to focus on establishing an early ground game and allowing that to set up the pass. That should keep this game relatively close.
Pick: Jets +2
The Total: 45
With both teams looking to establish the run and both defenses being sharp, this game has the feeling of being a tight, somewhat low-scoring battle. Running the football kills the clock and neither team is expected to run away with the game and cause the other to perpetually air it out. Week 1 is traditionally sloppy for most teams, and Sunday’s results should be your guide as 10 of the 14 games went under. Remember, the public bets what it wants to see, not usually what is. Pick: under 45
Favorite Monday Night Football Player Props
- Aaron Rodgers over 233.5 passing yards (-130)
- Josh Allen under 250.5 passing yards (-115)
- Garrett Wilson over 67.5 receiving yards (-130)
- Stefon Diggs under 70.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Dalvin Cook Anytime TD (+150)
- Dalvin Cook over 48.5 rushing yards (-125)
- Dalton Kincaid over 26.5 receiving yards (-130)
**all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Player News
Steelers brought in Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson for a top-30 visit.
They also brought in Central Florida RB RJ Harvey, not to be confused with PJ Harvey. Nine of Pittsburgh’s top-30 visits were spent on running backs. We’re starting to believe they might be serious about drafting a running back this year. Henderson has previously visited the Cowboys, Bengals and Panthers. He’s been tied heavily to the Raiders as well as Chip Kelly, Vegas’ offensive coordinator, coached the Buckeyes offense this past season. Henderson is an explosive scat back and that would make him an interesting fit with the Steelers as he would seem on paper to replicate what Jaylen Warren already brings to the table.
New York Daily News’ Pat Leonard reports the Rams have “spent a lot of time” with Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart.
“Some league sources believe that Dart to L.A. is a strong possibility based on a combination of mutual interest, fit and breadcrumbs,” Leonard continues. While the Rams aren’t exactly in a position of short-term need at quarterback given their investments in Matthew Stafford and Jimmy Garoppolo, the year-to-year nature of Stafford’s contract means we can’t dismiss the idea of them investing in a new quarterback. Dart has generally been regarded as the third quarterback in the draft behind Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, though it’s possible that someone like Tyler Shough rises past Dart in the process. It wouldn’t be completely surprising if both Dart and Shough sneak into the bottom of the first round, where the Rams pick at 26th overall.
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Tom Silverstein reports the Packers have received interest and remain committed to waiting for a deal to be made for CB Jaire Alexander.
Silverstein’s sources add that the Packers were close to dealing Alexander near the start of free agency, but that the combination of “trade compensation and Alexander’s willingness to alter his contract to fit the other team’s salary cap have made it difficult to close a deal.” We’ve been blurbing about Alexander’s situation all offseason and nothing has changed to this point. If the draft passes without a trade, we’re likely headed to a place where the Packers would be more compelled to release or keep him than trade him.
Ravens GM Eric DeCosta said “I never know what’s going to happen” when asked if he expects Mark Andrews to be with the team in 2025.
“I can tell you this, Mark Andrews is a warrior. He’s a great player and we’re in the business of keeping as many great players as we can,” DeCosta continued. It’s a bit of a departure from John Harbaugh saying he “fully expected” Andrews to be here in late March. Reading between the lines, it sounds like Andrews may be available in a trade but that nobody has really given the Ravens an offer they’d consider feasible. We’d bet on Andrews returning still, but it is noteworthy that DeCosta wouldn’t commit to it.
NewOrleans Football’s Mike Triplett’s “best guess” is that Derek Carr is “trying to force a divorce” with the Saints.
“Either a) he legitimately is like my shoulder has reached a point where I think I’d rather take care of it than play this season or ... b) it’s some sort of threat, like we asked for you guys to release us, you didn’t, we were upset when you just restructured the contract instead of trying to work out a release, so now here’s another path for us not showing us, and maybe now we’ll force a release,” Triplett continued. “I don’t know how there’s any resolution from this,” Triplett added. The Athletic’s Diana Russini added that she believes Carr does not want the “Kirk Cousins treatment” where a team is not committed to him long-term. Triplett and Nick Underhill believe that Carr wanted out and was very upset when the Saints restructured his contract and forced him to stay. It sure feels like Carr is intent on not playing for the Saints this season.
Chargers LB Daiyan Henley (shoulder) expects to be ready for training camp.
Henley had surgery to repair a torn labrum that he played through for the final four months of the season. Henley told ESPN’s Kris Rhim that he expects to be “100 percent” before training camp. If for whatever reason Henley is slow coming back it could be an opening for 2024 third-rounder Junior Colson.