NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football: Picks, Predictions & Player Props
The NFL Week 3 Sunday slate caps off with a fantastic match-up between the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons. If you’re looking for a little skin in the game, then it’s time to check out our NFL best bets for Sunday Night Football.
There are a lot of questions surrounding both teams so when you’re making your NFL predictions for the game, keep some of this in mind. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have yet to connect for much in the way of positive yards, let alone any touchdowns, and the backfield looks like a hot mess. Kirk Cousins still looks like he’s struggling to recover from his Achilles injury and we’re still waiting for that explosive breakout game from Bijan Robinson. Will any of this happen on Sunday night? Check out our NFL picks to find out.
NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday Night Football, 9/22
When diving into our NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football, we always like to look at the history between the two teams. Unfortunately, we are looking out of conference which means they see each other every four years. The last time they played as in December of 2020 where the Chiefs escaped with a 17-14 victory at Arrowhead Stadium. This time they’re in Atlanta and the Falcons have gone through quite the makeover, so history between the two clubs is fairly limited for betting purposes.
This season, the Chiefs are 2-0 but just 1-1 against the spread as the Bengals did a nice job of keeping things close last week. They had no issues covering the three-point spread in the first week, but couldn’t hold the lead on the 6.5-point spread last week. The Falcons are 1-1 this season both straight-up and against the spread after winning outright against the Eagles during that wild Monday night, a game many NFL predictions had the Eagles winning handily.
So the real question is, can the Falcons carry that momentum into this game and when we make our NFL picks, do we back them? Keep reading for the game breakdown and our NFL best bets for Sunday Night Football.
Sunday Night Football Prediction: Sunday, September 22nd
First and foremost, neither defense has been particularly strong through the first two weeks. The Falcons haven’t given up a lot of yards through the air, but they have given up the sixth-most rushing yards per game at 161.5 over the first two weeks. Meanwhile the Chiefs have allowed almost 130 rushing yards per game so far and have also coughed up the second-most passing yards per game with 256.5 allowed.
Despite losing Isiah Pacheco, we still expect the Chiefs to try and establish the run early. Carson Steele is apparently getting the first look as a potential lead back, but Samaje Perine is expected to handle the passing down work and the team also just promoted Keaontay Ingram from the practice squad as well. Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is not a tradition north-south running kind of guy, so it should be interesting to see how they handle the rotation in the backfield.
If the Chiefs can be successful on the ground, it should help them open up the passing game even more. Otherwise, we’re going to see Atlanta spend most of their time falling back into coverage. If the Chiefs do find success running the football, then it’s going to be wheels-up for Rashee Rice and Kelce. Rice has been strong through the first two weeks, adding great yards-after-the-catch numbers and stretching the field deep, and while Kelce has yet to break out, we like the fact that the Falcons play a lot of Cover-3 and try to use linebacker Kaden Ellis as coverage for the tight end. They’re not going to be able to get away with that here, so if they stay the course with their defensive scheme, Kelce could have a strong effort in primetime. If Taylor Swift is there, watch out!
On the other side, the Chiefs are going to have to do everything they can to stifle Bijan Robinson. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis are great on the defensive line, but they’re going to nee help preventing Bijan from getting into the next level of the defense. Expect a lot of outside-zone runs here and possibly some designed screens to the running back.
The real question is whether or not Kirk Cousins can handle the pressure from the defense. The Falcons offensive line is much-improved, but Jones is an elite lineman and will give them tons of problems. Cousins will need to have a quick release and get the ball into the hands of his play-makers. He needs to lean on the talents of Drake London and Kyle Pitts first and then let Darnell Mooney stretch the field.
Overall, these tams match up well against each other and we are expecting a great game. So let’s make out NFL picks and see what looks good for the NFL best bets for Sunday Night Football.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Best Bet: Sunday, September 22nd
After reading the full write-up and studying up on what both teams need to do, it time to lay out our NFL predictions. While the Falcons are moving in the right direction with their coaching and on-field personnel changes, the issues we see with Kirk Cousins and his lack of mobility are likely to be an issue. The Chiefs defense is going to be aggressive with him, so unless they get that explosive breakout game from Bijan, I’m not sure they win it. I do believe they keep it somewhat close though, so I’m going to take the safe play, use the alternate spread and buy it down by a half-point. Adds a little juice, but I like it even more in some same-game parlays.
Pick: Chiefs -2.5 (-140 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
The four total games, the Chiefs have played in two overs while the Falcons have played two unders. Of course, the Falcons squared off against the Steelers in an old-school low-scoring affair, but they did do a really nice job containing the Eagles on Monday. Can their offense pick it up here? Can the Chiefs get a ground game going? That’s going to be the linchpin for them, I think. This game opened at 49 and has steadily dropped down to 46.5 as of writing this. We might just have to err on the side of caution and stay with the defenses.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 9/22
- Travis Kelce over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Kyle Pitts under 39.5 receiving yards (-120 on BetMGM Sportstbook)
- Younghoe Koo over 1.5 field goals made (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.
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Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.