Certain storylines seem nearly too good to be true, or that “it only happens in the movies.” Well, consider Justin Herbert’s rookie season one of these instances. A rookie quarterback viewed as the potential franchise quarterback spends his first offseason with more virtual work than in-person work, due to the COVID-ridden offseason and preseason. Sixty minutes before the team’s game early in the year against the Chiefs, TyRod Taylor was ruled out after a medical mishap, and Herbert was thrusted into the starting role against the league’s best quarterback. Herbert went toe-to-toe with Mahomes and the Chiefs, and later went on to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year, break the rookie touchdown record for touchdown passes with 31 and nearly broke the record for passing yards by a rookie (held by Andrew Luck). You can’t make this stuff up. Seriously, you can’t. Herbert finished the year as the QB9 in fantasy football, per Pro Football Focus (PFF) and the expectations for Season 2 are sky high. Will the former Oregon standout avoid any type of sophomore slump? Let’s examine.

Herbert finished as a QB1 60 percent of the time last season, per RotoViz, and his overall numbers were solid. He threw for over 4,300 yards with a 31:10 TD/INT ratio and completed 67 percent of his passes. Herbert also added 234 yards on the ground and found the end zone five times via his legs. You have to love rushing production from your quarterback! Interestingly enough, on designed quarterback runs, he had the eighth-most rushing yards amongst quarterbacks! We don’t talk about Herbert being the most mobile signal caller in the league, but maybe we aren’t talking about his mobility enough. Protecting the health of the team’s franchise quarterback is of paramount importance, but Herbert’s legs are a weapon and continuing to draw up designed runs for him, especially near the red zone, will help elevate his rushing floor, which is necessary for a quarterback looking to acquire the “elite” label in fantasy.

With rookie quarterbacks, you want to see how they handle pressure, and I do mean that in more ways than one. How do they handle the huddle? What about the internal and external pressure if they aren’t playing well? How did they handle the transition to the NFL game, most notably the speed of play compared to the college level? In the most literal sense, what about pressure from opposing defenses? Herbert was solid all around, but when he was under pressure, he was absolutely phenomenal.

When under duress, Herbert completed 57 percent of his passes, which was the best mark in the league, per PFF. He posted a 13:2 TD/INT ratio, and perhaps what’s most impressive is that when he was under pressure, his turnover-worthy play rate of 2.3 percent was the lowest amongst quarterbacks with at least 125 drop backs under pressure last season, per PFF. He did this as a ROOKIE! It’s a testament to Herbert how calm, collected and productive he was when under pressure last season but the Chargers knew what needed to be done. Only Russell Wilson had more drop backs under pressure last year, and not investing in the offensive line is a death sentence for a quarterback. So, what did the Chargers do? Maybe the better question is what didn’t the Chargers do? To protect Herbert, the Chargers did the following this offseason:

  • Signed All-Pro Corey Linsley to a five year contract worth $62.5M
    • PFF’s highest-rated run blocking center & 5th-best pass blocking center in 2020
  • Signed Matt Feiler to a three-year deal worth $21M
    • Pass blocking grade of 71.9 or higher in each of last two seasons (80.7 in 2019), per PFF
  • Drafted Rashawn Slater in the first round of this year’s draft
    • Highly-regarded by many scouts, and some considered him the top offensive line prospect in this year’s draft

Due to playing from behind, the Chargers threw it a lot last year. Herbert had 40 or more pass attempts in eight games last season! The Chargers ranked fifth in total pass attempts and sixth in passing yards, per Pro Football Reference. Brandon Staley is the new head coach and all of his attention is going to go to the defensive side of the ball. Typically, defensive-minded coaches love to run the ball and play defense to win games. Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi wants to let the offense flourish, and Staley will let him do so. Lombardi was the Offensive Coordinator for Detroit back in 2014 and 2015, and the team ranked 11th and fourth in passing attempts respectively. Furthermore, in terms of passing yards, they ranked 12th and ninth respectively. Most recently, Lombardi was in New Orleans with Sean Payton and Drew Brees.

The Chargers’ offense is going to be fun and statistically solid and Herbert will continue to make off-script plays. Will he get the same amount of designed rushing attempts? That’s where I’m unsure. Stafford wasn’t completely immobile, and while Drew Brees wasn’t fleet afoot, Lombardi was around the utilization of quarterback/tight end/special teamer Taysom Hill, so perhaps some of those runs can be designed for Herbert in select spots. I can’t confidently say where Herbert’s rushing numbers will end up, so that could be a detractor to breaking into that elite echelon.

Our projections here at Fantasy Alarm have Herbert finishing the year as the QB6, throwing for over 4,600 yards with 36 touchdowns, and adding 272 yards and a couple of scores on the ground. He’s in line for another solid fantasy season, and for the record, there are only four quarterbacks I would without a doubt take before Herbert. After that, he’s right in the mix.


Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
rotoviz.com