2021 NFL Draft Guide Player Profiles: George Kittle

When he’s been on the field, San Francisco tight end George Kittle has been a monster, both in reality and in fantasy. The fifth-rounder out of Iowa has carved out a sizable role in the San Francisco offense, despite the team investing heavily in wide receiver early in recent drafts. He was limited to just eight games in 2020, and he hauled in 48 of his 63 targets for 634 yards and two touchdowns. He had at least 85 receptions for 1,000+ yards and five scores in each of the two seasons prior, so it’s a real shame that he missed time last year. The injuries have piled up for Kittle through his career thus far, and he’s going pretty high off the board this year yet again. Is he worth the risk? Is he actually that much of a risk, or has an injury or two given him a bad reputation? Let’s examine.

He did miss eight games last year, but prior to that, it’s not like he was missing games left and right! He played in at least 14 games each of the three seasons prior! However, the bumps and bruises are still piling up, as he’s missed time over the years for an ankle sprain, ankle fracture and two knee sprains. Could he do himself some favors to try to avoid injury? Sure. Maybe he steps out of bounds instead of attempting to gain extra yards, or maybe not engaging the second blocker on a run play away from his side, but that is simply not in his DNA. Kittle is not hard-coded to take plays off. He’s relentless and plays so hard. What makes him so fun to watch and easy to like, is [partially] at play for his increased risk of injury. No player is free of injury in the National Football League by any means, so that’s not what I’m getting at.

Despite missing some time here and there, his per game production has remained relatively steady, at least over the last couple years.

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

His role in the offense is unquestioned, and over the years, he’s routinely ranked amongst the best tight ends in some advanced metrics, notably Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR) and Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). Being successful in both of these is really good and fruitful for fantasy managers, considering the former is a metric that dictates efficiency, whereas the latter is all about opportunity and quality of said opportunity.

Courtesy of RotoViz

Over the years, Kittle has been efficient and effective, all while garnering a massive workload. This is key to fantasy production moving forward. Even with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk at wide receiver, Kittle’s target share isn’t going anywhere. In terms of volume, he’s a top three or four option at his position, health willing.

Jimmy Garoppolo is the quarterback, for now, but believe it or not, Kittle has been more productive with quarterbacks not named Garoppolo over the last three seasons. Could there be more untapped upside from a fantasy perspective with Trey Lance? Perhaps.

Courtesy of RotoViz

It’s also interesting that of quarterbacks that have thrown at least 60 balls to George Kittle over the last three years, is it that surprising that Garoppolo is the lowest in terms of adjusted yards per attempt when throwing to Kittle? Honestly, it shouldn’t be.

Courtesy of RotoViz

Don’t get me wrong, a 9.43 AYA is nothing to shake your head at, but it pales in comparison to the other numbers there. In his only full season at North Dakota State, Lance averaged 9.7 yards per attempt, and 11.7 adjusted yards per attempt, while posting a perfect 28:0 TD/INT ratio, per Pro Football Reference. Will there be a learning curve? Sure, but step one in the San Francisco rookie guide is to look at Kittle. When in doubt, Kittle is your out. Do they actually say that? Who knows, but it would be foolish not to do such a thing, given how darn good and reliable he is.

There is a case to be made against Kittle, however, that goes beyond injury issues, and apparently, it lives rent free in Howard Bender’s head:

Saying Kittle just doesn’t have a knack for the end zone is a bit ludicrous, since touchdowns on a yearly basis can vary greatly. For example, Michael Thomas didn’t score a single touchdown last year after scoring nine in each of the two years prior. Ultimately, it all comes down to health for Kittle. If he’s out there for the majority of the season, he’ll certainly be a top three or four player at his position. I’m ecstatic about a shift to Trey Lance at some point this year, because tight ends tend to be a nice safety blanket for a young quarterback, and Kittle can be that and then some.

Our projections have Kittle coming in as the TE2 in PPR, and amassing 1,055 yards and 6.4 touchdowns on 98 grabs. Also, for what it’s worth, there’s only three, maybe four tight ends that can be the TE1 overall this year, and Kittle is one of them. His upside at the position is pretty hard to ignore in the second or third round of your draft.

Outside of Travis Kelce, every tight end has risk, so why not chase the one with arguably the highest upside
 

Statistical Credits:
pro-football-reference.com
rotoviz.com