You often have a short window to make a decision on young players in your dynasty fantasy football leagues. And we have a small sample size of games to work with. It puts us in a tough spot as the value for these guys can skyrocket or plummet before you have a chance act. That’s why it’s important for us to leave no stone unturned in our research of the sample size we do have after their rookie season. We need to consider all of the stats, watch all the film, and discuss every narrative.

To review the rookie season for Xavier Leggette and project his outlook for dynasty fantasy football, I first combed through the stats from numerous sites like Pro Football Focus, Fantasy Points Data Suite, Player Profiler, Pro Football Reference, etc. And then I watched all 300+ routes of his from various angles via NFL Pro’s Film Room.

So far, we’ve covered a couple of divisive rookie wide receivers in this series. We looked at whether Kyler Murray can make things happen for Arizona’s Marvin Harrison. And we’ve pondered what a new role could mean for Chicago’s Rome Odunze. Now we set our eyes on another first round rookie, Xavier Legette.

In his rookie season, Xavier Legette didn't really put up gawdy numbers at face value. He came in just under 50 catches and under 500 yards. He was reportedly dealing with a wrist issue from a prior injury in 2021 as well as a foot problem that he had surgery on this offseason. Let’s break down his 2024 and decide if a healthy Legette can take a step forward in 2024.

 

 

 

Xavier Legette Usage

Despite being a rookie, Legette was used as the split end (X) which is one of the more difficult wide receiver roles. For those unfamiliar with the different roles and alignments for pass-catchers, I put together an article that breaks down the different terminology and what it means for a player's usage. How a guy is used can absolutely affect what your upside is for fantasy football.

In that split end role, you are primarily playing out wide and often have your foot tethered as one of the seven guys required up on the line of scrimmage. That not only makes you susceptible to the jam but can also draw the other team’s top corner.

Per Pro Football Focus, Legette played 502 snaps out wide compared to only 176 in the slot. And when he was in the slot, he was often still tethered to the line as a “big slot”. That allows guys like Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker to line up off the line where they can go in motion. Here’s an example of a formation where Legette is tethered as the “big slot” player. See how he’s right up on the line while the smaller wide receivers are a couple of steps back?

There are a couple of positives to this split end role. It often leads to big snap shares where some “slot only” guys can be rotational. It also puts you in position for one one-on-one situations on the outside in the red zone where teams are often in man to man coverage. 

With his size, that led Legette to lead the team in endzone targets with 9, of which he caught 4. Here is a nice touchdown catch on a jump ball thrown by Andy Dalton while he was the starter

One of the issues for Legette in this alignment is that it led him to run a lot of routes that he did not have success with. The vast majority of his catches came on routes that either broke sharply towards the sideline like outs or comebacks or ones that broke inward like ins, slants, and curls. 

Per NFL Next Gen stats, he caught 33 of his 49 routes on these plays vs. only 5 on vertical routes. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, he was particularly bad on go routes where he got 17 targets and only caught one of them. Some of those balls were uncatchable and essentially throw-aways but that’s still a far cry from the success rate he had on out-breaking routes, of which he caught 14 of 17.

 

 

 

Xavier Legette Route Running

Per FantasyPoints Data Suite, Legette ranked as the WR92 with an average separation score of 0.056 (minimum 50 routes). That lines up with Player Profiler’s 31.6% route win rate which would rank 119th among wide receivers. Naturally, his separation score was much higher on out breaking routes (0.257) than it was on go routes (0.036). Here’s an example of him creating separation on an out breaking route vs. man at the bottom of the screen.

Now, it wasn’t all bad on the vertically breaking routes. He actually was able to use his size/speed combo to get off the line well - it wasn’t often that he would get hung up inside the first 5 yards. Here’s an example of his quick feet and hands working in unison to get off the jam immediately.

And he did flash some successful moves at times, especially a hesitation move that worked in the first quarter in the first Buccaneers game and again in that same Chiefs game as the clip above. The ball wasn’t thrown his way as the decision needed to be made early in the play but he was able to beat his man here on a go route which is something he struggled with in general. He's at the bottom of the screen on this one.

Despite route running being the biggest knock on him coming into the draft, the film wasn’t necessarily as bad as some of the numbers dictate. He was able to create separation on short area breaking routes and find pockets against zone. 

A lot of the deeper routes that hurt his separation score were clearly plays where he was designed to draw coverage and open things underneath. He certainly needs to improve his route running and separation but it’s a part of his game that I wouldn’t say is a guarantee to hold him back.

 

 

 

Xavier Legette Catch Point

This is where I have the most concern. And there is one glaring bad habit that absolutely needs to be fixed. Xavier Legette loves to jump when the ball is coming - whether he needs to or not.

He made some great plays when the situation called for him to jump and make a catch. Here is an example against the Broncos where the ball was high in a contested situation and a leaping catch was warranted. These are the kinds of plays that get us excited about the upside of a big-bodied wide receiver with speed.

But there were MANY times on the film where he jumped at the catch point when it wasn’t needed. Here is an example with a lot of unnecessary movement. 

This is reminiscent of another wide receiver that once had a lot of steam in fantasy football circles - Preston Williams. When the play is made, it LOOKS spectacular at times. 

But you watch a number of these plays in a row and start asking yourself, “Did they actually need to jump there?”, you realize how much room for error that creates and what a bad habit it is. Here is an example of Preston Williams doing something very similar and almost landing out of bounds.

Let's just take a quick second and slow these two plays down and take a peak at them next side by side.

When the ball is secured in the endzone we can obviously live with it. But there are some huge issues that come along with not having good fundamentals at the catch point. The first is that it can eliminate all possibility of yards after the catch (YAC) if you are jumping unnecessarily rather than catching the ball in stride.

And, per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Xavier Leggette ranked as WR279 in YAC per reception. In fact, he averaged just over 2 yards. Even a little hop like this one can stop your momentum moving in the right direction. Obviously securing the ball is most important but the guys that deliver in fantasy football are turning average plays into BIG plays.

You also want as few moving parts as possible when it comes to catching the football. You’re increasing the difficulty of the play for no reason. Leaping catches are already difficult enough when they are necessary because you are adding timing to the equation. If you don’t time it right, your hands aren’t going to be in the right place when the ball gets there, like this example from the same game as above.

Many of Legette’s issues stem from this one problem. Per Pro Football Focus, he had a brutal 14% drop rate. When you watch the film, a lot of those are related to him using his body to catch the football rather than reaching out with his hands. There's a time and place to trap a ball but you ideally want to catch it either above or in front of you.

And, in a few instance for Legette, the jump at the catch point is part of the problem. If you are jumping to catch a ball, you should be doing so when you need to reach up and grab it. But many times, Legette would jump but then try to use his body to basket catch the ball. 

Even the slightest unnecessary movement at the catch point can cause issues. Watch his footwork on this slant against the Eagles closely. The defender makes a good play closing on him but why are both of Legette’s feet off of the ground when he is catching this football? It’s completely unnecessary movement and he's once against using his body.

There are a lot of bad things that can happen when you leave your feet for no reason. I hate to bring this play up again for any Panthers fans out there, but Jonathan Mingo gives a good illustration here of how bad it can make you look.

 

 

 

Dynasty Fantasy Football: Xavier Legette Outlook

Xavier Legette is a work in progress. As we mentioned earlier, he was dealing with both a wrist and foot injury last year, the latter of which he had surgery on. When you bet on a player like this, you are betting that they can work on their mechanics and develop into a better player. The raw ability is there.

A former Panther that had similar issues, Brandon LaFell, was able to improve his issues with body awareness at the catch point as his career progressed. But he never quite took things to another level. In Legette’s case, he not only needs to work on separation and balancing out his route tree but he absolutely needs to improve what he does at the catch point. There is a time and place for a majestic leap. He needs to focus on catching the ball in stride with his hands out in front.

As a fairly conservative dynasty fantasy football player myself, I’d at least be putting Legette up on the trade block to see what you can get. Right now Alex Korff’s dynasty trade charts, which attempt to capture industry wide value sentiment, suggest you can get a mid-second round rookie pick for Legette.

I think I’d be willing to go for that, especially if it's a 2025 pick and I need running back help. This is arguably the deepest running back class since 2017, as we discussed in this article. Anything later than that and I’ll likely just hold onto Legette as there is opportunity on the Panthers and the upside is there. If you're doing a start up draft or are looking to buy someone in a trade, I'd likely target Jalen Coker or Ja'Tavion Sanders from the Panthers given their much cheaper price. We don't know how this target pecking order will shake out but Sanders at least has TE eligibility. The 2025 NFL Draft could hurt all of them in a couple of weeks so I don't want to over invest right now.