2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Free Agency Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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With the retirement of Tom Brady, the rest of the league is hovering over the Buccaneers' roster like a bunch of vultures. And sure, the Bucs decided to throw Leonard Fournette and Donovan Smith by releasing them, but they were going to be cap casualties anyway. The reality of this team is that they aren’t really in a position to cut or trade many other guys and go into tank mode. Plus the atmosphere around the team is that they are simply going to retool and continue trying to compete now. Sure, they have the little question of “who will play quarterback?” but, if they can figure that one out, there’s no reason they can’t win this division. The other teams have pretty much the same problem.
With this series, we are taking a look at each NFL team to gauge the direction of the offense from a dynasty fantasy football perspective. Is this team gearing up for a Super Bowl run? Are they in the midst of a rebuild? Are they considering blowing it up? We’ll take all of that into account as well as the current contracts, upcoming free agents, and 2023 NFL draft class to give you our best recommendations on how to handle these weapons in your dynasty fantasy football leagues.
Recommendations Key
BUY - Attempt to acquire this player at or slightly above market value
HOLD - The player is likely more valuable than the market indicates. Hold them if you have them or try to acquire them at a discount.
SELL - The perceived value for this player is higher than the projected remaining value in your average dynasty league. Cash out now.
SELL/DROP - Depending on the depth of the league, always try to sell guys before dropping. But this player is likely not worth the bench spot he’s occupying so you might need to just drop them.
*Contract information is proved courtesy of Spotrac.com*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quarterback
Overview:
The Buccaneers have one quarterback under contract for 2023
Kyle Trask - age 24
Contract: Trask was drafted in the second round of 2021 and is under contract through 2024.
Outlook: Obviously we haven’t seen much of Trask because he was never in the discussion to start - no chance he competes with the legendary Tom Brady. Trask is the only guy on the depth chart right now but Todd Bowles pushed back when he was labeled the QB1 in a recent interview. He also mentioned they will bring in competition.
Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - If there was any sort of hype surrounding Trask we might consider cashing out but there really isn’t. In fact, he doesn’t even show up on some valuation charts like Alex Korff’s Dynasty Value Trade Chart. Guys like Zach Wilson, Malik Willis, and Carson Wentz are all listed on there when they might not even be in the mix to COMPETE for a job. Malik Willis is a third round pick that was benched for Joshua Dobbs and Ryan Tannehill is back yet Willis has more value than the second round Trask? We’re holding onto Trask or adding him for cheap just to see what happens here.
FREE AGENTS:
Tom Brady, Blaine Gabbert
Free Agency/Draft Outlook:
As we said earlier, this team said they are bringing someone in to compete with Trask which is why we are cautiously optimistic rather than just optimistic. The real question is what kind of player is coming in. It could be a veteran like Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr, in which case it won’t be much of a competition. They could also draft a QB at 19 overall or trade up, which would put that player in the driver's seat over Trask. However, if they opt for cheaper veterans or anyone drafted second round or beyond, we’ll feel pretty good about Trask’s chances at the job.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Backs
Overview:
The Buccaneers have two running backs under contract and one signed to a reserves/future deal.
Rachaad White - age 24
Contract: White is under contract through 2025
Outlook: White started as the pure backup early in the season. Then he carved out some work in the passing game. Then Fournette missed a game and we saw him in the full role. White finished the season with multiple games of double digit carries and 5+ targets. At the end of the day, that proved enough to make Leonard Fournette expendable.
Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - You really could not have scripted it better for White as he went from backup to presumed started in just over a year. The concern now is that they only have two backs under contract which means they could go after a complementary back. We don’t want anyone coming in that is going to take a specific role away whether it be goal line work or pass down work. White’s price is going to be sky-high after Fournette was just released so we are in hold mode - don’t sell if you have him but don’t go out and pay the current premium either. Let’s wait and see what happens. The team has to fill out this depth chart somehow so the best time to buy might be to wait for them to sign depth and hope for a discount.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn - age 25
Contract: Vaughn is under contract through 2023.
Outlook: Vaughn was an incredibly popular dynasty pick when drafted as he was touted as the new “James White” for Tom Brady’s offense. But he unfortunately never caught on.
Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - It would be one thing if he offered a complementary skill set to what White offers but the reality is that White does all the same things that Vaughn does except better - including catching the football.
FREE AGENTS:
Leonard Fournette, Giovanni Bernard
RESERVE/FUTURE:
Patrick Laird
Free Agency/Draft Outlook:
The Buccaneers might be set with Rachaad White as the starter but they can’t go into the season with only two guys under contract. Ideally, they would draft a player on day three of the draft or later since those guys can easily be pushed to the back burner. The concern comes if they bring in someone that would have a clearly defined role like Damien Harris as a power back or Kareem Hunt as a third-down back. We want White playing in as many high-leverage situations as possible.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receivers
Overview:
The Buccaneers have three wide receivers under contract for 2023 with four signed to reserve/future deals.
Mike Evans - age 29
Contract: Mike Evans is under contract through 2023.
Outlook: Mike Evans is your prototypical split end in this league and he doesn’t get enough credit for it. It’s one thing to drop 1,000 yards every single year and it’s another to do it lining up with your foot tethered to the line facing the hardest assignment every week. If Evans continues on his trajectory, he could be a Hall of Famer.
Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - Everyone wants the Bucs to trade Evans but it really makes no sense given his contract. They would only save $2.3 million in cap space with a cap hit north of $20 million. So the reality is that he’s not going anywhere and the Bucs will likely just keep trying to compete. And Evans likely has multiple more seasons of being exactly who he has been which is someone that is in your lineup every single week in fantasy football.
Chris Godwin - age 27
Contract: Godwin is under contract through 2024.
Outlook: Like Evans, it’s not easy to get out of Chris Godwin’s contract. Releasing him has zero benefits and a trade would carry almost twice as much dead cap as it does savings. This team is not in a position to blow things up.
Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - I’m just going to continue to keep buying good players who are at the age apex for their position. And that is Chris Godwin. The reason we liked these guys so much in the first place is that the targets are highly consolidated among the top two players which is Evans and Godwin. That isn’t expected to change so we are staying the course. The only difference is that you can now get a discount.
Russell Gage - age 27
Contract: Russell Gage is under contract through 2024.
Outlook: Gage battled injury and also battled a split snap share so he had his worst season statistically since 2019. The ceiling isn’t super high for what he offers.
Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - The reality of Gage is that he’s not on the level of Evans or Godwin so he’s going to be the odd man out when they want to bring in an extra tight end or back. That crushes his upside so I’d sell if you can or drop if you need the spot.
RESERVE/FUTURE:
Kaylon Geiger, Deven Thompkins
FREE AGENTS:
Julio Jones, Breshard Perriman, Scotty Miller
Free Agency/Draft Outlook:
They have a split end, a flanker, and a slot wide receiver under contract. So they really just need depth pieces. I would look to add a speedy field stretcher that you can bring in to take the top off of defenses if possible. They could also bring back the familiar faces in Perriman and Miller for the right deal or maybe they look to the draft but I really don’t see this team going out and making a big splash here. They already made the big splashes and have the studs under contract.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tight Ends
Overview:
The Buccaneers have three tight ends under contract and two signed to a reserve/future contract.
Cameron Brate - age 31
Contract: Cameron Brate is under contract through 2023.
Outlook: The tight end out of Harvard has been reliable in his specific role which is a part time pass catching tight end. They could technically designate him a post June-1 release which would leave his cap hit at just under a million and save $4 million for this year but that also pushes $2 million to 2024. They already announced Donovan Smith and Leonard Fournette would be cut so, if he were going to get cut, it would have likely happened already.
Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - Cameron Brate has only sporadically ever had fantasy relevance and we don’t expect that to change at age 31.
Cade Otton - age 23
Contract: Cade Otton is under contract through 2025
Outlook: Otton quietly became the starting tight end for this team with snap shares in the 80-90% range at times. Accumulating 65 targets with the wideouts on that team is also nothing to sneeze at for a rookie tight end.
Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - He’s not likely to crack your lineup in one tight end leagues unless Mike Evans or Chris Godwin get hurt so you don’t need to go out of your way to acquire him. If you can add him for cheap though he’s the kind of guy you hold onto while we wait for his window to open. The contracts for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will eventually be up and, if he gets a shot to be a top two target on the team, that’s when it’s his time to shine. This year might present a chance to buy him on the low if he’s the 3rd or 4th target again behind the WRs.
Ko Kieft - age 25
Contract: Ko Kieft is under contract through 2025.
Outlook: Every tight end on the roster blocked on ~5% or less of their pass plays except for Kieft who blocked on 27.1%. That is not the profile we want.
Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - You don’t need to hold blocking tight ends in fantasy football.
Free Agents:
Kyle Rudolph
Reserve/Futures:
Dominique Dafney, David Wells, Dylan Cook
Free Agency/Draft Outlook:
The Buccaneers have their starter in Cade Otton. They have a backup that skews blocking in Ko Kieft. They have a backup that skews pass-catching in Cameron Brate. The curveball would come if Cameron Brate were released but they realistically have everything they need so they don’t need to go out of their way adding tight ends. They even have a bunch on reserve deals that they can hide on the practice squad.
Follow Andrew Cooper on Twitter @CoopAFiasco for more NFL and fantasy football insights and stay tuned as we hit on all 32 NFL teams in this series leading into NFL free agency!
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