NFL DFS Week 5 Dart Board: Top Value Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel
Published: Oct 09, 2022
Week 5 NFL DFS is going to be an interesting one, for sure. After looking over the NFL Injury Report, it would appear that we should be able to find some intriguing DFS value plays at both the running back and wide receiver positions. There aren't a ton of minimum-priced guys floating around, but we do have some dives deep enough to help fit some of the big boys into our GPP tournament lineups. If the options we present to you aren't cheap enough, then you may have to go the 2-TE route. It's a tough one to pull off given the fact that tight end upside can be limited, but it's definitely a great way to save some money. Of course, this also happens to be the week that the TE position is hot trash, especially with all of the big boys off the main slate, Robert Tonyan playing in London and Logan Thomas popping up late on the injury report with a calf injury. And no, don't even get me started on Taysom Hill, though there might be another Saint I'm eyeballing.
Welcome to the DFS Dart Board for NFL Week 5!
If you're new to Fantasy Alarm, the DFS Dart Board is an add-on to the Playbook that I started a few years ago. It came about when I was building GPP lineups and realized I needed more salary relief. As I dug through my notes to see who stood out the most among those players at a more affordable price, it hit me. When I put players in the Playbook, I am thinking primarily about cash lineup plays -- guys with a high floor who I could conceivably put into my core-group and build a lineup around. After those players, I would mix in a handful of guys who had boatloads of upside and were in soft match-ups, but I wasn’t paying as much attention to their salary as I should have. And that's where the Dart Board came into play.
Every now and then, when building lineups while using particular stacks, you need some salary relief. You need a guy who may not be minimally priced, but low enough to give you the flexibility you need to get someone like Nick Chubb or Stefon Diggs in as a flex play or something. Occasionally you may see a min-priced QB or TE in here, but more often than not, this space is reserved for running backs and wide receivers who are below $6,000 on FanDuel or $5,000 or lower on DraftKings.
Now while we call this a Dart Board, keep in mind that every player has been carefully researched. We're not up here picking players all willy-nilly, desperately hoping they hit. We're looking for the cheapest bargains possible who still have the strongest potential to give you at least a 3-5x return on what you pay.
All set? Great. Let's get to it and while you do, maybe give a listen to this week's NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Matchup (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|
WR | Nelson Agholor | CIN @ BAL Sun 8:20 | 4000 | 5500 |
While I had him in the Watch List all week, DeVante Parker was a borderline Playbook guy and instead, I'm going for broke with the ultimate deep-threat in Agholor while the world argues over they should favor Parker or Jakobi Meyers, if he even plays. Agholor only sees about four or five targets each week, but when he does make a catch, it usually goes for big yards and, oftentimes, a touchdown. The Lions pass defense is atrocious and we know New England is going to have to throw it some. If you're building lineups and need a cheap guy with strong touchdown upside, here you go. Game Type: GPP Weather: Clear skies with temps in the high 50's and almost no wind in the forecast. | ||||
WR | Nico Collins | HOU @ JAC Sun 1:00 | 4100 | 5400 |
It's not often you get a dart-throw who is averaging five to six targets per game, but that's what we've got here with Collins. If I'm reading this game right, the Texans are going to have to take it to the air and take some shots downfield. Collins serves as the deep/vertical threat in this offense, so if you're looking to stack Jags and need to save some money on the Texan coming back, then Collins is a solid option. Game Type: GPP Weather: Partly cloudy skies with temps in the high 70's. No rain in the forecast. | ||||
WR | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN @ WAS Sun 1:00 | 4200 | 5400 |
Yes, we expect Tennessee to go run-heavy this week, but this game against the Commanders could go back-and-forth a little, leaving the Titans to push the passing game as well. With Treylon Burks out, Kyle Phillips will step in, but he should handle the outside work while NWI stays in the slot to dace Benjamin St-Juste, arguably the worst slot-corner in the game. If Ryan Tannehill has to throw, this is actually the softest of matchups for Tennessee. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny skies with temps in the low 60's and. very light winds. | ||||
WR | DeAndre Carter | CHI @ MIN Sun 1:00 | 3900 | 5100 |
UPDATE: Still willing to use Carter in GPP tournaments as people may pivot over to Palmer now that he is active. This is only a legitimate play if Joshua Palmer (ankle-questionable) is out or we hear he is going to be limited. If he is, then great, because Carter would prove to be a strong, speedy asset the Chargers could feed the ball to regularly whether he's on the outside or working out of the slot. But if Palmer is good to go, then we'll back off this play and seek out a different bargain. Game Type: GPP Weather: This game will be. played in a dome. | ||||
WR | Khalil Shakir | PIT @ BUF Sun 1:00 | 3200 | 5000 |
Another guy who needs the injuries to keep those ahead of him on the depth chart out for the week. Jamison Crowder has a broken ankle, Jake Kumerow is also out with an ankle issue and Isaiah McKenzie has yet to be cleared via concussion protocol. If all three are out, then Shakir offers up some mild upside. As the Bills look to build their anticipated lead, Shakir could get some extra snaps with everyone out and should the Bills go up big like we expect, maybe he even gets a few looks during garbage time. Keep an eye on the Injury Report before finalizing your lineups. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy skies with temps in the low 50's. Moderate winds at about 15mph. | ||||
TE | Juwan Johnson | SEA @ NO Sun 1:00 | 3000 | 4700 |
While Adam Trautman plays more snaps, he is also held back to block a lot more often. That leaves Johnson as the guy who runs the routes and sees the majority of targets that go to the Saints tight ends. The masses will turn to Taysom Hill in this spot and while yes, there is a chance Hill gets some rushing/wildcat work, he has never been someone upon whom you can rely. I'd rather take my chances with Johnson as the wide receiver converted to tight end. He's seen red zone work before. No reason to think he won't this week, especially against a team as terrible as the Seahawks. Game Type: GPP Weather: This game will be played in a dome. | ||||
TE | O.J. Howard | LV @ KC Mon 8:15 | 2600 | 4500 |
With Brevin Jordan out and Phaeroah Brown released, Howard could be an intriguing dart-throw should you need a significant pay-down on either site. Last week, Howard played 42 snaps, ran 26 routes and saw five targets. All three numbers were better than what Jordan Akins saw. The Jags rank 18th in DVOA against the tight end and while they don't give up an alarming number of fantasy points to tight ends, the opposition is still throwing to their tight ends and average of six times per game for a little more than 45 yards. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly clear |
Nelson Agholor, WR | ||||
While I had him in the Watch List all week, DeVante Parker was a borderline Playbook guy and instead, I'm going for broke with the ultimate deep-threat in Agholor while the world argues over they should favor Parker or Jakobi Meyers, if he even plays. Agholor only sees about four or five targets each week, but when he does make a catch, it usually goes for big yards and, oftentimes, a touchdown. The Lions pass defense is atrocious and we know New England is going to have to throw it some. If you're building lineups and need a cheap guy with strong touchdown upside, here you go. Game Type: GPP Weather: Clear skies with temps in the high 50's and almost no wind in the forecast. | ||||
Nico Collins, WR | ||||
It's not often you get a dart-throw who is averaging five to six targets per game, but that's what we've got here with Collins. If I'm reading this game right, the Texans are going to have to take it to the air and take some shots downfield. Collins serves as the deep/vertical threat in this offense, so if you're looking to stack Jags and need to save some money on the Texan coming back, then Collins is a solid option. Game Type: GPP Weather: Partly cloudy skies with temps in the high 70's. No rain in the forecast. | ||||
Yes, we expect Tennessee to go run-heavy this week, but this game against the Commanders could go back-and-forth a little, leaving the Titans to push the passing game as well. With Treylon Burks out, Kyle Phillips will step in, but he should handle the outside work while NWI stays in the slot to dace Benjamin St-Juste, arguably the worst slot-corner in the game. If Ryan Tannehill has to throw, this is actually the softest of matchups for Tennessee. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny skies with temps in the low 60's and. very light winds. | ||||
DeAndre Carter, WR | ||||
UPDATE: Still willing to use Carter in GPP tournaments as people may pivot over to Palmer now that he is active. This is only a legitimate play if Joshua Palmer (ankle-questionable) is out or we hear he is going to be limited. If he is, then great, because Carter would prove to be a strong, speedy asset the Chargers could feed the ball to regularly whether he's on the outside or working out of the slot. But if Palmer is good to go, then we'll back off this play and seek out a different bargain. Game Type: GPP Weather: This game will be. played in a dome. | ||||
Khalil Shakir, WR | ||||
Another guy who needs the injuries to keep those ahead of him on the depth chart out for the week. Jamison Crowder has a broken ankle, Jake Kumerow is also out with an ankle issue and Isaiah McKenzie has yet to be cleared via concussion protocol. If all three are out, then Shakir offers up some mild upside. As the Bills look to build their anticipated lead, Shakir could get some extra snaps with everyone out and should the Bills go up big like we expect, maybe he even gets a few looks during garbage time. Keep an eye on the Injury Report before finalizing your lineups. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly cloudy skies with temps in the low 50's. Moderate winds at about 15mph. | ||||
Juwan Johnson, TE | ||||
While Adam Trautman plays more snaps, he is also held back to block a lot more often. That leaves Johnson as the guy who runs the routes and sees the majority of targets that go to the Saints tight ends. The masses will turn to Taysom Hill in this spot and while yes, there is a chance Hill gets some rushing/wildcat work, he has never been someone upon whom you can rely. I'd rather take my chances with Johnson as the wide receiver converted to tight end. He's seen red zone work before. No reason to think he won't this week, especially against a team as terrible as the Seahawks. Game Type: GPP Weather: This game will be played in a dome. | ||||
O.J. Howard, TE | ||||
With Brevin Jordan out and Phaeroah Brown released, Howard could be an intriguing dart-throw should you need a significant pay-down on either site. Last week, Howard played 42 snaps, ran 26 routes and saw five targets. All three numbers were better than what Jordan Akins saw. The Jags rank 18th in DVOA against the tight end and while they don't give up an alarming number of fantasy points to tight ends, the opposition is still throwing to their tight ends and average of six times per game for a little more than 45 yards. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly clear |