BB10's Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Recap: July 20
As we get closer and closer to the start of the fantasy football season we begin to see the fantasy football ADPs begin to shift as more and more news comes to light regarding players, especially with NFL training camps just a few weeks away. With these shifting fantasy football ADPs, we also see fantasy football player rankings and fantasy football player projections start to be tweaked as well. It's at this time that we make a decision to either fade or follow the trends we are seeing in our draft rooms based on the clickbait news reports that get sent out to the masses on a day-to-day basis. One second we are hearing that Leonard Fournette is 260lbs and J.K. Dobbins isn't going to be ready for the season and the fantasy football community starts going wild about fading both, drafting their fantasy football handcuffs and you see a quick overaction in fantasy football drafts. Then, 10 minutes later, we hear directly from both players, Fournette & Dobbins, that both reports were incorrect and the player ADPs shift back. It's important to know your sources but also to trust your own research when it comes to your draft strategy whether it be in a fantasy football best ball draft like the one below or a fantasy football mock draft where you are perfecting your craft.
Each week I will be hosting Best Ball drafts over on BB10s which is a 12-team, 20-round draft to test out different draft strategies, get a feel for different draft slots and see how the public feels about certain players and see who the risers and fallers are in each draft.
Check out last week's Best Ball Draft breakdown!
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- Date: Thursday, July 21, 8pm ET
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The Draft Strategy
I've been very fortunate so far this draft season that I have yet to draft outside of the top 3 and therefore was always getting one of my top two targets in PPR formats of Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. However, for this draft, I drew the fourth overall pick and that left me with a bit of an unknown. Would CMC or Ekeler fall? Would we see a wide receiver go in the top 3? Ultimately, I was set on taking a running back and for the first time this season that running back selection was neither CMC or Ekeler but Najee Harris. After my first-round pick, I really went and targeted whom I felt were the best available players on the board. There was no distinct strategy to go Anchor-RB or Zero-RB in this draft. I wanted to get a feel for the board and this was a pretty sharp draft room that didn't let much value fall through the cracks!
Check out the full draft board below as we dive into my positional analysis on my roster.
Quarterbacks
Pick: 6.09 - Jalen Hurts, PHI
Going into every fantasy football draft there is always going to be that one player that you will try and get on your roster at all costs and for me, this season, that player is Jalen Hurts. We know that mobile quarterbacks present some of the higher ceilings in fantasy football with the likes of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson leading in scoring over the past few seasons at the position. In 2021 we saw Hurts get his first full-time crack at being the starting QB for the Eagles and he finished with 3,144 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions while adding 784 yards and 10 touchdowns running the football. Hurts finished the season as QB9 in overall scoring, missing two games, and QB6 in fantasy points per game.
In 2022 the Eagles made a stunning move on draft night, trading for A.J. Brown to give Hurts a legit number one wide receiver for this offense to play opposite of last year's first-round pick DeVonta Smith and pro bowl caliber tight end Dallas Goedert. Critics will point to the poor completion percentage for Hurts last season as a reason that he may struggle but I look at similar comps, like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen who both struggled with accuracy before finally getting that true top-end target and in turn, they turned out career-best years throwing the football. As long as A.J. Brown and Hurts can stay healthy this season I think we could see Hurts challenge to be the top overall scoring QB.
Pick: 12.09 - Mac Jones, NE
In best ball you definitely need at least two QB's and I'm willing to acknowledge that Hurts has the potential to be at a higher threat of injury given his mobility so I went and took two additional QB's later in this best ball draft with the first being Mac Jones. My feelings on Mac Jones this season can mostly be summed up in this tweet below:
The Patriots used the 15th overall pick on him in 2021 and it felt like at times they really limited him to make sure he was put in positions to not really succeed but not screw up either. Whelp, it's now 2022 and Josh McDaniels has left to go coach the Las Vegas Raiders. There is a lot of uncertainty when it comes to who will be running the Patriot's offense but what isn't being questioned is Mac Jones. By all accounts, Jones has been working out with his receivers all offseason and is ready to take that step forward.
If you take away the three pass attempt game in Buffalo last season the Patriots were actually tied with the Bengals in pass attempts per game, which may surprise you, and if Jones does take that next step then he will certainly put up some weeks this season where he is a viable QB1 option.
Quarterback Depth: Davis Mills, HOU (16.09)
Running Backs
Pick: 1.04 - Najee Harris, PIT
For the first time all season I didn't land one of Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler in a best ball draft but Najee Harris brings much of the same skillset that I am looking for in a running back that has RB1.01 type of upside. I was not high on Harris as a rookie, not because of his skill but because of his team as the Steelers had one of the worst offensive lines in football and a declining QB, and yet he was able to overcome both of those things to be an absolute volume monster and fantasy football stud in 2021. Harris finished with 1,200 yards rushing and seven rushing touchdowns while adding 74 receptions for 467 yards and three more touchdowns. Harris finished the year as the RB3 overall in PPR scoring because of his insane offensive usage rate.
In 2022, I am expecting more of the same from Harris with the Steelers starting one of either Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett at QB this season we should see Harris get plenty of touches in both the running and passing attack. Harris could even see more targets this season as the team moved on from JuJu Smith-Schuster who lived to run the short-routes in this Steelers offense and that's a role we could see Harris take on in this offense at times as he splits out and motions out of the backfield. A season of near 100 catches is certainly in his range of outcomes here.
Pick: 2.09 - Nick Chubb, CLE
Chubb is a controversial player in the fantasy football community. There is a contingent that would point out that he lacks true upside because he isn't involved enough in the team's passing offense while there is another group that talks about his ability to potentially lead the league in rushing and touchdowns. Injuries have felled Chubb over the past two seasons, costing him three games last season and four games in 2020. In 2021 Chubb had per 17 game totals of 1,529 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing. In terms of PPR scoring, Chubb finished as RB12 in points per game and RB13 in overall scoring despite the fact he missed three games.
2022 will be interesting, not because of Chubb, but because of Deshaun Watson. If Watson is suspended for any amount of time you can bet the Browns will lean heavily on Chubb with Jacoby Brissett as the likely starting QB with Watson out of the lineup. If Watson is available to play at all this year then opposing defenses will have to respect the fact that a top-five quarterback is under center and therefore leave a more favorable matchup for Chubb to be running up against. Add in the fact that a Watson led offense will likely produce more scoring chances for Chubb and he should easily be among the top 10 scoring backs in fantasy this season.
Pick: 8:09 - Ronald Jones, KC
Jones was signed during free agency and has a real shot at being the Chiefs primary running back when it comes to early-down and red zone formations with Clyde Edwards-Helaire filling in more as a change of pace and pass-catching back in this Chiefs offense. We saw Jones breakout in 2020, rushing for 978 yards and seven touchdowns for Tampa Bay but he eventually lost his job to Leonard Fournette as Jones went down with an injury heading into the playoffs and Fournette helped lead the Buccaneers offense to their Super Bowl title. In 2021 Jones was active for 16 games but saw little work as the primary backup for Leonard Fournette. Jones could see himself with a double-digit touchdown upside this season as part of this Chiefs offense that will look a bit different this year but still has Patrick Mahomes under center.
Pick: 9:04 - Chase Edmonds, MIA
The Dolphins have a new head coach this season and have made some big moves to improve their offense which included a trade for Tyreek Hill. Edmonds will benefit big time if the Dolphins plan to spread their offense this season, much in the way Edmonds has benefited from how the Cardinal's offense was handled over the past few seasons. Edmonds is an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield and can break off some nice runs against softer defenses that are forced to play extra defensive backs instead of stacking the box. The injury limited Edmonds to just 12 games last season but was on pace to set a career-high in targets, receptions and total yards. With this being a full-PPR format Edmonds has the potential to be a nice high-floor play week-to-week.
Running Back Depth: Zamir White, LV (20.09)
Wide Receiver
Pick: 3.04 - A.J. Brown, PHI
In best ball fantasy football it's a wise decision to stack your wide receivers with your quarterbacks. Much like when playing DFS, you are trying to maximize your scoring output and, assuming he stays healthy, Brown figures to lead the Eagles in the majority of receiving categories this upcoming year. In 2021 Brown appeared in just 13 games due to injury but still managed 63 receptions for 869 yards and five touchdowns. Health has certainly been something that has impacted Brown over the course of his career, having missed games in each of the last two seasons but his ceiling may never be higher than this year with Hurts now as his quarterback.
Pick: 4.09 - Courtland Sutton, DEN
This was maybe the first pick that strayed from the norm for me as I've been taking Jeudy over Sutton in every draft so far as I believe the talented third-year man out of Alabama is due to explode now that he has an NFL-caliber QB under center. That said, Wilson has had no problems supporting two top wide receivers during his time in Seattle with both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett excelling. Sutton figures to be more of the Metcalf receiver in this duo with his ability to stretch the field. In best ball you want guys with high ceilings and Sutton certainly has the ability to be a top-scoring receiver of the week if his connection with Wilson develops.
Pick: 5.04 - Chris Godwin, TB
A bit of a risky pick here. There were some reports coming out that Godwin could be ready for Week 1 or soon thereafter and may end up avoiding the IR to begin the season. If that ends up being true then he is an absolute steal in the fifth round. Prior to tearing his ACL last season, Godwin had 98 receptions for 1,103 yards and five touchdowns. His 17-game averages had him on pace for 119 receptions for 1,339 yards and six scores which would have had him ranked among the top 10 wide receivers in PPR scoring. Even if Godwin does miss time, he figures to be on of Tom Brady's favorite targets upon his return which will give this lineup a nice boost.
Pick: 7.04 - Michael Thomas, NO
Risk pick number two of the draft. We aren't really sure the status of Michael Thomas coming into this season. We've seen reports that he is running around but largely working out on his own. We know there has been some contention between him, the team and even some of his teammates. Does Michael Thomas even want to play football? In the seventh round, I was willing to take that risk. He hasn't played a down since 2020 but the man is one of the most gifted receivers in the league and IF he is healthy and IF he wants to play football then he could be a prime comeback player of the year candidate with Jameis Winston at quarterback.
Pick: 13.04 - DeVante Parker, NE
This will be viewed as a homer pick by most but I'm bullish on the Patriots passing offense this season. I already told you why in my Mac Jones analysis above so why not take the Patriots likely number one receiver in the 13th round of this draft? Health has obviously been the biggest detriment to Parker's career to this point but we saw him go for 1,200 yards two years ago when he finally played a full 16-game season with just Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for Miami. Mac Jones proved to be an accurate passer as a rookie but his top targets were the likes of Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne. Parker is instantly the most talented receiver on this team, outside of maybe rookie Tyquan Thornton due to his blazing downfield speed, and should provide himself to be a great target for Jones in this offense….assuming he is healthy.
Wide Receiver Depth: Joshua Palmer, LAC (14.09), Kendrick Bourne, NE (18.09)
Tight End
Pick: 10.09 - Hunter Henry, NE
Yeah, yeah, I know. Another Patriot player lands on this roster. But hey, Henry tied for the league lead in touchdown receptions for tight ends last year with nine and was a great security blanket for Mac Jones during his rookie season. We also saw Henry play a full season for the first time in his career. I still expect the red zone looks to be there for Henry this season and with the leash off Mac Jones a bit more it is possible we see him threaten new career highs in yards and receptions.
Pick: 11.04 - Cole Kmet, CHI
Another offense I am a bit bullish on this season is the Chicago Bears. Over the past few years it felt like Matt Nagy and Bill Lazor were working against their own team. Now, with new coaches in place, I am feeling a bit more confident in the skill position players on this team. I like the tools that Justin Fields has when it comes to his physical capabilities of playing the position and Kmet should challenge to be the second highest targeted player in this offense behind Darnell Mooney. In year two, Kmet finished with 60 receptions on 93 targets for 612 yards. Unfortunately, he had ZERO touchdowns. Touchdowns are the hardest thing to predict in fantasy football but if he can just simply repeat his production for this season and add one five or six touchdowns we will be looking at a borderline top 12 tight end based off of last year's PPR scoring and that is assuming that nothing else increases when it comes to his production.
Tight End Depth: David Njoku, CLE (15.04)
Team Defenses
Pick: 17.04 - Dallas Cowboys
Pick: 19.04 - Philadelphia Eagles
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