NFL Week 18 Best Player Prop Picks: Bo Nix, De'Von Achane Sunday, 1/5
There’s nothing quite like the NFL Week 18 slate. Every game is as polarizing as ever, whether it be for a division title, playoff berth or simply completely irrelevant. Well, there’s always draft positioning. Either way, it means alternative approaches may be desired, which is why we’ve got our best NFL Week 18 player prop picks for you.
We’ll even take you through not only other NFL Week 18 player props being targeted this weekend, but also a monster $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign up offer!
Best NFL Week 18 Player Prop Picks
With how popular the NFL has always been and how popular sports betting has become, many fans are fully aware that gauging teams’ motivation in this final week of the season is pivotal. Similarly, NFL contract incentives are also important to monitor, as some players can make some big bucks for hitting certain benchmarks.
So, be sure to keep an eye out for our standalone article featuring those milestones, but truthfully, most of those were hit last week for this season specifically. Therefore, they aren’t the focus of our NFL Week 18 player prop picks. Instead, the theme for our two favorite plays is teams keeping their playoff dreams alive in the late afternoon window.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Player Props: Bo Nix Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
More accurately, it’s two of three AFC teams fighting for the final spot up for grabs. If the Cincinnati Bengals lose tomorrow, then it will be down to just the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins, and we're starting our NFL Week 18 player prop picks with the former.
Normally a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs is a nightmare scenario for trying to make the playoffs, but with them having clinched the #1 seed, they aren’t planning on playing anyone. We can be confident in saying that, as Denver is a huge 11-point favorite!
Of course, this game is more than just a division rivalry - a win and the Broncos secure the last AFC Wild Card spot, no matter what anyone else does. They’ve surprised just about the entire NFL world, and that is almost entirely thanks to rookie QB Bo Nix.
Not only was he not expected to hit the ground running in general, but the Broncos run game has done him absolutely zero favorites. Nix has led the team in rushing several times this season, and they hardly have a true starter with multiple RBs also leading the team in rushing some weeks.
All that has led to Nix having to throw often, and with the Chiefs having the NFL’s fourth-best run defense, we expect that to continue. Nix has averaged just a tick under 35 attempts per game since the end of October, and with RB injuries mounting as well, we love starting our NFL Week 18 player prop picks with Bo Nix over 30.5 pass attempts (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
Dolphins vs. Jets Player Props: De’Von Achane Over 12.5 Carries (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
To continue our NFL Week 18 player prop picks, we’re going with the synonymous market in the RB department. Much like Denver has RB injury concerns, Miami has the same with QB Tua Tagovailoa.
He missed last week’s game, and with the Dolphins needing to win this game while hoping that the Broncos lose, they’re going to need someone to step up in a big way. We expect them to rely on RB De’Von Achane, but truthfully, his yardage numbers simply haven’t been there. So, we’re going to trust only his carries.
A perfect example was just last week - he led the team in rushes, but backup QB Tyler Huntley led the team in rushing yards. Better yet, we saw a perfect example when he faced the Jets just a month ago. Despite getting 14 carries, Achane ran for just 24 yards!
Furthermore, even with the Jets having nothing to play for, their run defense has been stepping up. They were just beaten down 40-14 by the Buffalo Bills, but still allowed RB James Cook to rush for just 53 yards on 15 carries.
All this also means that you could consider under on rushing yards for Achane, but we’re avoiding that given his explosiveness with the low value. If you’d like to tail us, we’d recommend grabbing this before definitive Tua news is released, so let’s wrap it up - we’re adding to our NFL Week 18 player prop picks with De’Von Achane over 12.5 carries (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
Sunday NFL Week 18 Player Prop Odds At BetMGM Sportsbook
As promised - other NFL Week 18 player props being targeted this weekend at BetMGM Sportsbook:
Passing Yards:
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow: Over 284.5 (-115) vs. Under 284.5 (-115)
- Falcons QB Michael Penix: Over 218.5 (-115) vs. Under 218.5 (-115)
- Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield: Over 255.5 (-115) vs. Under 255.5 (-115)
Rushing Yards:
- Ravens RB Derrick Henry: Over 91.5 (-115) vs. Under 91.5 (-115)
- Bears RB D’Andre Swift: Over 47.5 (-115) vs. Under 47.5 (-115)
- Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving: Over 83.5 (-120) vs. Under 83.5 (-110)
Receiving Yards:
- Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase: Over 93.5 (-115) vs. Under 93.5 (-115)
- Steelers WR George Pickens: Over 66.5 (-115) vs. Under 66.5 (-115)
- Buccaneers WR Mike Evans: Over 97.5 (-125) vs. Under 97.5 (-105)
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Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.