2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Todd Gurley

As if we expected anything different, Todd Gurley was a fantasy monster in 2018, as he ran for a league-high 17 touchdowns, and added four more through the air. He didn’t quite get the volume he accrued in 2017, but he was still a fantasy force on a weekly basis, and actually improved upon his yards per attempt numbers. Since entering the league, he’s averaged at least 18 touches per game over the course of each season, while scoring double-digit touchdowns in all but one campaign. While he’s still the RB1 in Los Angeles, the unfortunate mentioning of “arthritis” and “arthritic knee” have fantasy owners questioning what to do with the otherwise unquestioned top two or three pick. He’s slipped to the second round in numerous drafts now, and fantasy owners will either be rewarded with an absolute steal, or the classic “told ya so” will loom large as fantasy owners were hoping to strike gold with Gurley and that knee, but ended up with silver.

Through the first 12 games of the season, Gurley was averaging 5.04 yards per carry, 10.30 yards per reception and a whopping 23.2 touches per game. In the final two games of the season, albeit slowly easing into lightening his workload, and going against two stout run defenses (Chicago & Philadelphia), Gurley rushed for just 76 yards on 23 carries. However, he remained effective in the passing game, seeing 20 targets during that two-game span. After the Eagles game, the rumblings came out that Gurley was dealing with “soreness” and it was really just downhill from there. Well, almost.

The writing on the wall that something was wrong was not only from that, but even in an effective rushing effort against the Cowboys (16-115-1), he saw just two targets and it translated into a measly three receiving yards. During the regular season, he caught two or less passes just one time. More reports came out that his knee wasn’t quite right, and now he simply wasn’t playing, despite being active. Gurley saw just five touches in a close game against the Saints, and then against the Patriots, he saw 11 touches for a combined 34 yards. Furthermore, C.J. Anderson was getting most of the run. Against the Saints, Anderson received 16 carries, and against the Patriots he received seven, although they didn’t run too much playing from behind.

In the last five games we saw Gurley, with the playoffs included, run the ball 53 times for 236 yards (4.4 YPC), but if you remove the Cowboys game when he had two and a half weeks to rest that ailing knee, his numbers drop to 121 yards on 37 carries, which comes out to (3.3 YPC).

Per Pro Football Focus’ grading of elusive rating, we saw a decline with Gurley there as well. See for yourself below:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Yikes. Not necessarily a good look here for the All-Pro running back. Well, it continues. Fast forward to draft night.

The Rams used their second pick of the draft on a talented running back out of Memphis who goes by Darrell Henderson. The immediate thought is that Gurley’s knee is worse than what many led on if the Rams are using a third-round pick on a running back, and furthermore, they traded up to get Henderson! So the Rams went out of their way to move up to get their guy at running back? Sure did.

With minimal information most of the offseason, Henderson’s name continued to shoot up draft boards and his average draft position (ADP) was getting incredibly inflated, making him a tough choice, because Gurley is still there and will remain involved. Now, Gurley might not get his typical 20+ touches per game, as the team might lessen his workload, but with how effective he has been over the years, even if he only averages 18 touches per game, he’ll still be a RB1 with his ability to find the end zone in this productive offense.

Per Pro Football Focus, Gurley averaged 1.13 fantasy points per touch in 2017, and 1.17 fantasy points per touch last year. Via some rough calculations based on a slight reduction in effectiveness and anticipated workload, we can find Gurley in the following ranges:

Based on some regression in overall effectiveness (down to 1.10 fantasy points per touch), Gurley’s workload would nearly have to be cut in half for him to drop out of RB1 territory. Sure, it’s just a rough calculation, but this gives you an idea of what Gurley could be this year, even with a reduced workload. Yes, if his workload cuts significantly and he losses effectiveness, that’s an entirely different scenario. However, with how effective the Rams offense is, they can be sure to give him chances in the red zone, and he’s always had a knack for finding the end zone. He could still score double-digit touchdowns this year, simply because it feels as if the Rams essentially force him the ball in the red zone, which isn’t a bad idea considering he’s your best offensive player.

Drafting Gurley isn’t risk averse, considering that going into your draft you are aware of this knee issue. Gurley very well could be just as effective per touch, and not see a similar workload, but the chart above indicates that he’ll still be a top 10 guy more often than not. The further he falls in drafts, the more enticing he becomes. If he is your RB2, I’d actually feel quite good about that, and at that point, I’m willing to take the risk.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com