There is a whole cloud of uncertainty surrounding Tyreek Hill with the Kansas City Chiefs, and any absence of Hill would push Watkins into the fantasy spotlight. Watkins would operate as the top dog in an aerial assault led by Patrick Mahomes and have the best chance to put up the most dynamite statistical season of his entire career. However, his draft price is getting pushed up and the same concerns the fantasy community has had in recent years still remain. At time of writing, he’s the 26th wide receiver off the board, but he’s going to cost you a fifth or sixth round pick to get.  There is plenty of potential and he could certainly reward fantasy owners who take the gamble, but it’s an incredibly large risk, to say the least.

If Hill somehow comes out of all the allegations unscathed, Watkins is the number two guy and will operate as the team’s second receiver. Sure, still very profitable, but nowhere near his current price. We can all agree at that point, his draft price will fall and he will fall right back in line to where he has been in recent years.

During his three years at Clemson, Watkins racked up 27 receiving touchdowns and posted a 14.1 yards per reception mark for his career. He came in with the ability to stretch the field and showcased glimpses of it when he was healthy and on the field. Sure, going to Buffalo wasn’t the ideal landing spot, but even in better offenses, he’s struggled to be a consistent fantasy contributor. He did manage to score eight touchdowns with the Rams in 2017, but injuries hampered him all season yet again in 2019, leading to Watkins appearing in just 10 games.

Yes, it was his first year in a new offense, but the constant injury bug that has plagued through his entire career negated him from being able to develop a consistent synergy with Mahomes.

Per Pro Football Focus, Watkins has some less than ideal statistical comparisons from his 2018 season. Here are a few:

  • Watkins’ aDOT (8.91) was just behind Willie Snead (8.95).
  • Watkins 9.8 yards per target was comparable to Tyler Boyd (9.98).

Here we go, and since we are about 380 words in, it’s time to address the major problem with Watkins in fantasy circles. The guy simply cannot stay on the field. He’s played 16 games just once his career, and that was in his rookie season in 2014. Since that season, he’s played 12 or more games just twice. Watkins has just one season with 1,000 or more receiving yards.

Since 2016, Watkins has dealt with his surgically repaired foot, and he’s missed games in previous seasons because of this and other ailments. Sports Injury Predictor outlines his full injury history and provides two numbers that stood out to me. The first was that he has a 59.4 percent chance of injury in 2019, and the second was that he’s projected to miss 2.5 games.

Because of these injuries, Watkins was hampered, and it affected the routes he could run, or at least the effectiveness of them. Per Pro Football Focus, take a look at Watkins’ targets of 20 or more yards down field, per Pro Football Focus.

Year (Team)

20+ Yard Target %

Yards Per Route Run

2014 (BUF)

25.0%

1.59

2015 (BUF)

37.4%

2.69

2016 (BUF)

22.0%

1.94

2017 (LAR)

24.2%

1.30

2018 (KAN)

13.2%

1.81


The yards per route run didn’t take a hit, but the targets downfield did. I mean, look at the drastic drop in 2018 compared to other seasons! The foot hampered him and definitely took a toll on his body and statistical production.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom for Watkins.Per Pro Football Focus, Watkins has some comparable metrics that favor a productive 2019 campaign, IF HE CAN STAY HEALTHY.

If you want to take a shot on the receiver go right ahead. Yes, he’s always had big time upside and that 2015 season was magical to say the least. However, since that year, we haven’t seen the same sort of production from Watkins. His career has been riddled with injuries, but if he could stay healthy, being with Mahomes in Kansas City is a great fantasy spot.

Right now, Watkins is a more expensive Will Fuller , and roughly 30 picks more expensive to be exact. There’s no denying what Watkins’ fantasy upside could be this season, but there’s a lot of “ifs” in that scenario.If you want a share or two in some best ball setups, that’s fine, but investing too heavily into Watkins could be your team’s downfall in 2019. In short, the likelihood of Watkins disappointing fantasy owners in 2019, especially considering his ADP, is higher than the chances of him rewarding fantasy owners for their pricy investment.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
sportsinjurypredictor.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/footbal