The consensus top fantasy quarterback this season is Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes , and rightfully so. He became just the third quarterback ever to throw for 50 or more touchdowns in a season, joining future Hall of Famers Peyton Manning and Tom Brady . In what was essentially his rookie season after appearing in just one game as Alex Smith ’s backup in 2017, Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards, a 50:12 TD/INT ratio, a 66 percent completion percentage and even added 272 yards and two scores on the ground. What he did last season was simply impeccable. He had 10 games with 300 or more passing yards, posted the second-highest aDOT, per Pro Football Focus, amongst quarterbacks who appeared in 16 games and had nearly 75 more fantasy points than the next closest quarterback. Saying Mahomes will statistically regress in 2019 is an understatement, and it’s not necessarily due to his personal talent, but more so the personnel around him. Additionally, it’s hard enough to throw for 50 touchdowns, let alone doing it for a second time.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Mahomes expected completion percentage of 64.3 percent was below his 66.0 percent mark for the season, so there could potentially even be some regression there in 2019. However, Mahomes simply makes throws that others cannot, whether he is on the run or even looking at his intended receiver! It’s worth noting, however, that his xCOMP% was in the lower half of the league, but it’s right on par with fellow risk-takers Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield .

Mahomes is far from a non-factor in the rushing department as well. He added 272 yards on the ground, which was 11th-best in the league last season. Some people in your league may try to get cute and select an Aaron Rodgers or Watson over Mahomes, because they have higher upside in the rushing attack. Mahomes should be the first quarterback selected in every league, and while there may not be anyone higher on Watson than me, Mahomes still deserves to be the first quarterback off the board.

The hesitation with Mahomes this draft season is where he’s being selected. His current average draft position (ADP) per the NFC is 24.30, which puts him right at the two-three turn in 12-team formats. To nip this in the bud, I’m talking one quarterback leagues when I say this, not two quarterback or superflex setups. In those formats, Mahomes is a first round pick without a single doubt. However, in one quarterback setups, I understand waiting and taking a quarterback, or even just waiting two-ish rounds to take a Rodgers or Watson. Here’s why:

Kareem Hunt is no longer in town and he caught seven touchdown passes in 11 games last season. Chris Conley left town, and he quietly caught five touchdowns and was the fourth-most targeted receiver on the team last season. Luckily, Tyreek Hill isn’t expected to be suspended, so Mahomes will have his most electric offensive weapon and top receiver from last season for a full season. In theory…

While Damien Williams filled in more than adequately for Hunt, catching 95.2 percent of his targets and two touchdowns over the final five weeks of the season, Mahomes did see a slight dip in production over the last five weeks of the season without Hunt.

 

Games

Pass Yds per Game

TD/INT

Fantasy Points per Game

Fantasy Points per Dropback

Rank (by fppg)

With Hunt

11

329.8

37/10

28.52

0.73

QB1

Without Hunt

5

293.8

13/2

23.48

0.57

QB3

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Yes, Mahomes’ statistical production was slightly diminished following the release of Hunt, but his average fantasy output per game of 23.48 points would have still been the best of 2018, but instead of finishing nearly 75 points ahead of the next quarterback, the gap would have been just 15 points.

The gripe on Mahomes isn’t what he can do, it’s just the price associated with him. The gap between him and the second-quarterback is going to be much closer this season, but at that point, is drafting Mahomes two rounds ahead of Watson/Rodgers, or three to four rounds ahead of Matt Ryan that advantageous for your fantasy team? That’s a personal decision you will have to make.

Per the projections at Fantasy Alarm, we have Mahomes slightly ahead of Watson in the rankings for the 2019 season. Sure, the projections aren’t the divine light of fantasy expectations, and I’m sure Mahomes will smash his projections for the season, but this at least portrays the notion that the gap should be significantly reduced in 2019.

Mahomes is the front-runner to end the year as the QB1 in fantasy, but he certainly won’t outscore the QB2 by three weeks of production.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nextgenstats.nfl.com