2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Matt Ryan

It’s been a while since you probably thought about the Atlanta Falcons, but here’s your reminder that Matt Ryan was really good in 2018. His 4,924 passing yards were third-most in the league, his 35 passing touchdowns were tied for third most, and his QB rating was among the top-10 in the National Football League. He was a rock solid quarterback for fantasy owners last season, and with a similar supporting cast, he’s in line for another productive fantasy season.

Is he the flashy play? Of course not, but the guy knows how to put up stats. Ryan was one of just three quarterbacks to average over 300 passing yards per game and he only threw seven interceptions the entire season.

It’s no surprise that Ryan was surgical all over the field. Per Next Gen Stats, we can see that Ryan was well above league average on throws to various sectors of the field.

Only three quarterbacks attempted more passes of over 20 yards than Ryan last season, and when you have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley at your disposal, why not chuck the rock downfield!? His passer rating on these throws, per Pro Football Focus, was 113.9, which was fifth-best in the National Football League. Could these improve? Certainly, especially if Ridley continues to develop as an outstanding sidekick to Jones.

Is it crazy to believe that Matt Ryan could replicate, or even better his numbers from last season in 2018? No. Let me tell you why.

Look at the stark comparison of Ryan’s numbers when he was under pressure compared to when his offensive line kept him clean.

Sure, we expect quarterbacks to be much better when they aren’t under pressure, but when you were pressured, and sacked, as often as Ryan was, it could be a burden on your statistical production. Ask the quarterback for my Houston Texans! When his hand wasn’t being pressed by the defense, Ryan was a tactician out there and an assassin for his fantasy owners. The Falcons addressed this problem area in the NFL draft by selecting Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary in the first round. Rookies on the line can be worrisome, but these two are upgrades compared to last year. This is a big upgrade to Ryan’s outlook for the 2019 season.

Additionally, Ryan absolutely torched his division, and playing the teams in his division twice a year is a fantasy goldmine. Against the Saints, Buccaneers and Panthers in 2018, Ryan threw for 1,995 yards (332.5 ypg) and posted an exceptional 17:3 TD/INT ratio. Did the pass defenses for these two teams get any better this offseason? Let’s see.

Carolina added Brian Burns, pass-rushing specialist, in the first round, and didn’t draft a single cornerback or safety.

The Saints drafted Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Saquan Hampton in the fourth and sixth rounds respectively.

The Bucs lost Gerald McCoy , and added three rookies to the secondary, all of which were drafted in the second and third round.

The defenses in his division failed to get substantially better and Ryan’s fantasy excellence in 2019 hinges on dominating performances in these games. The offenses in this division as a whole are pretty good, meaning plenty of shootouts in these games. Woohoo!

Lastly, Dirk Koetter is back in Atlanta, and I promise this is a good thing. Steve Sarkisian is gone, and I promise this is an even better thing! Ryan was productive with Koetter from 2012-2014, throwing for at least 26 touchdowns and 4,500 yards in each season under his coaching. Ryan was a bit careless with the football then, and he’s improved on that since. Additionally, since 2012 Koetter’s teams have been in the top 10 in the league in passing attempts and passing yards five times. At running back, the Falcons have the oft-injured Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith , who are more than capable of being effective at the position. While this will help set up play action passes, it is Ryan’s offense and his responsibility to shoulder the offensive load.

These are all reasons why Ryan is ranked as high as he is in our rankings heading into the 2019 season. When it comes to a quarterback throwing for over 5,000 yards in 2019, Ryan may not be the first one that comes to mind, but after throwing for over 4,900 yards in two of the past three seasons, this is the year he bursts through the brick wall.

Matt Ryan is one of my favorite quarterbacks to target heading into the 2019 season. Sign me up for the 5,000 passing yards and 35+ touchdowns in 2019.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
nextgenstats.nfl.com
pro-football-reference.com