2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Le'Veon Bell

It feels like ages ago since we last saw Le’Veon Bell step on a professional football field. After multiple standout fantasy seasons in the Steel City, Bell inked a large deal to be the bell cow back for the New York Football Jets! After missing the 2018 season over his infamous contract dispute, his body was spared a year of wear-and-tear, which in theory, bodes well for coming back refreshed, revitalized and ready for the rigors of the NFL. Heading into the 2019 season, Bell’s talent isn’t in question, but more so whether or not he can produce at the elite fantasy level in New York like he did in Pittsburgh.

Bell was a workhorse for Mike Tomlin, taking the majority of the team’s rushing attempts and consistently being involved in the passing attack. Will this be the case in New York? It certainly should be. Other than Bell, the Jets have Elijah McGuire , Trenton Cannon , De’Angelo Henderson and Ty Montgomery . At receiver, the team has Robby Anderson , Quincy Enunwa and Jamison Crowder . However, there is one name that may be more prevalent to this situation than anyone else.

Adam Gase.

With Peyton Manning as his quarterback, Gase was a part of some successful fantasy offenses. However, in Miami, it was quite the opposite. The table below indicates where Gase’s teams have ranked in the league in terms of rushing attempts, yards, touchdowns and yards per carry.

As you can tell, Miami running backs weren’t very productive in 2018, largely in part because they simply didn’t get the ball enough. There is a large disconnect when you consider the fact that Miami ranked in the top 10 in terms of yards per carry, but were in the bottom 10 in terms of attempts. Way to go, Adam Gase. The 2018 Dolphins averaged 4.7 yards per carry, but the 23.2 attempts per game ranked in the bottom third of league.

Was it any better in the passing game? Marginally.

In 2018, Miami running backs averaged 6.4 targets per game.

In 2017, Miami running backs averaged 6.0 targets per game.

In 2016, Miami running backs averaged 5.5 targets per game.

Additionally, only the Los Angeles Chargers were slower overall in terms of pace of play. Under Gase in 2018, the Dolphins routinely ranked in the bottom three teams in all of football in terms of pace of play in different scenarios.

There are legitimate questions about Bell’s 2019 outlook in New York with Adam Gase at the helm. However, one can make the valid argument that Gase has never had a stud, workhorse back like Bell at his disposal. They say money talks, and Bell is getting a lot of it, and being that he is the best talent on the offensive side of the football for the Jets, we won’t see Bell ceding a ton of snaps to one of his less talented backs. Furthermore, with three starting receivers boasting league average or below average separation yards, per Next Gen Stats, Bell will be a valuable resource out of the backfield for Sam Darnold in the passing game.

Bell should get plenty of receptions playing from behind, and while the Jets likely won’t whoop up on anyone in 2019, he’s in line for four quarters of fantasy production on a weekly basis. That’s golden for fantasy owners.

The one cautionary tale with Bell is that he has a somewhat lengthy injury history. Sure, the year off certainly alleviated any additional usage on his body. However, we cannot forget the hyperextended knee in 2014, torn MCL in 2015 and sports hernia that required surgery in 2017. Bell always seems to get an injury risk during draft season, and over at Sports Injury Predictor, they give Bell a 57.5 percent change of injury in 2019. The time away from football was nice in terms of saving some wear-and-tear on the body, but at the same point, you only get in football shape playing football, and that is something Bell hasn’t done in two years. Whether you are an optimist or pessimist will likely change your viewpoint.

If you check out the projections tab in the NFL tools section, you will find that only one running back is projected for more points in a PPR format than Bell in 2019. Additionally, Bell is predicted to live up to his dual-threat label in 2019, considering that Bell is one of just three running backs projected to rush for 1,000 yards and receive 100 targets. The former Pittsburgh Steeler has produced numerous elite fantasy seasons, and in his first season as a New York Jet, he’ll return RB1 production.

Bell should be utilized as often as Saquon Barkely, Ezekiel Elliott and Christian McCaffery, but at a slightly reduced ADP.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
sportsinjurypredictor.com
footballoutsiders.com
pro-football-reference.com
nextgenstats.nfl.com