Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon was decent in his rookie year, as he rushed for 626 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games, not to mention adding 30 receptions for 287 yards in the passing game. However, in 2018, Mixon took his game to a whole new level. He played in 14 games for the second season in a row, and he rushed for 1,168 yards with eight touchdowns, and added 296 yards and one touchdown in the passing game. In a 0.5 PPR format, Mixon was the No. 10 running back in fantasy football last season. Not only did he receive more work, but he was more efficient. In his rookie season, he played just 44.9 percent of the snaps, and when that number increased to 69.3 percent last season, Mixon rushed for nearly 1.5 more yards per carry, and caught an extra pass per game. With a new coaching regime in Cincinnati, finally, and a potentially improved offensive line, Mixon is poised to take the next step and jump a tier among running backs this season.

On a per touch basis over the course of the full 2018 season, Mixon might not have been the best per touch guy. Per Pro Football Focus, his 0.80 fantasy points per touch was 35th-best among running backs that played at least 25 percent of the snaps. However, Mixon ended the 2018 season on a high note. Over the last six weeks of the season, there was only one running back (Derrick Henry ) that ran for more yards than Mixon during that span. He wasn’t outstanding in the passing game during that span, but he did enough to boost his fantasy numbers a bit.

While Gio Bernard will continue to get his reps in the passing attack, Mixon should be in line for his most productive season as a receiver yet. Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan will look to get Mixon the ball in the passing game as well, especially as Taylor envisions Mixon occupying the Todd Gurley role that he had been accustomed to seeing during his time in Los Angeles under Sean McVay. The Rams worked Gurley like a true bell cow, and Mixon is ready to take that step in 2019. No, Mixon will not produce like Gurley did in recent years, but he’s in line for his most productive season yet, as he should play over 70 percent of the snaps  this season.

This even dates back to 2015, when Taylor was the Offensive Coordinator for  the Dolphins. Lamar Miller led the team with 194 carries, and the next closest was Jay Ajayi with 49 rushes. In the passing game that season, running backs Miller, Ajayi, Jonas Gray and Damien Williams accounted for just under 18 percent of the target share.

What can we look forward to in 2019? Well, assuming he gets more run in the offense, considering Head Coach Zac Taylor comes from the Sean McVay regime, Mixon should be on the field often, and not cede too many snaps to his backups. Sure, Gio Bernard is still in town and will get some work, and rookie Trayveon Williams could factor into the offense, but Mixon is running the show, and he’s the most talented runner on the team. Mixon averaged about 20 touches per game last season, and this season, I could see that number approaching 22 touches per game. If he replicates last season’s 0.80 fantasy points per touch, which he could certainly improve upon, we are seeing a nice jump for Mixon. Doing some rough calculations, take a look at where Mixon could end the year, assuming he plays 14 games for the third year in a row.

Touches per Game

Fantasy Points per Touch

Total Fantasy Points

Would Have Ranked __ in 2018

22

0.78

240.24

8th

22

0.80

246.40

8th

22

0.82

252.56

6th

22

0.84

258.72

6th


Mixon may not be the most elusive back in the league, or the fastest, or the most explosive, or maybe even the most effective per touch, but he made great strides in 2018 and should receive the necessary volume to accrue RB1 production in 2019. There are some injury concerns, as he’s lost multiple games each of the past two years (concussion, knee), but all in all, the arrow is pointing upwards for the third-year back out of Oklahama.

Behind an improved offensive line, Mixon accumulating 1,500 yards with 10+ touchdowns isn’t a stretch of the imagination, considering he nearly made those marks last season. Yes, there is some volatility here, but if you draft a WR with your first pick and come back with Mixon in the second round, you’re off to a great start.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football