2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Jimmy Graham

Since leaving New Orleans, Jimmy Graham has had two relevant fantasy seasons, and two less than optimal performances. In 2016 with Seattle, he notched 923 receiving yards and scored six touchdowns, and despite dropping to just 520 yards the next season, he found the end zone 10 times. After a Pro Bowl season in 2017, Graham’s first season in green and yellow was one to forget. The 89 targets were nice, but Graham managed just 55 receptions for 636 yards and two touchdowns. In 0.5 PPR formats, there were 12 other tight ends who outscored Graham in 2018. Believe it or not, the former top two or three fantasy performer at his position was hardly a TE1 in 12-team setups last season.

Luckily, Graham was able to play in 16 games, because that is how he was able to end the year as the TE13. In terms of fantasy points per game in a 0.5 PPR setup, his 6.44 fantasy points per game were 20^thbest last season. The large concern with Graham heading into 2018 was that the Packers haven’t had a relevant tight end in fantasy formats for quite some time. Last year, Graham and the entire Green Bay tight end group as a whole accounted for a 20 percent target share, which was the highest that mark has been in the past three years. However, it was still just league average. Furthermore, the usage in the red zone is incredibly concerning, especially when you compare it to years prior.

Graham still had the second-highest target share in the red zone on the team, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling was right behind him, and the early forecast for 2019 could see Graham fall behind MVS, and perhaps even Geronimo Allison and running back Aaron Jones . Graham’s presence on the field isn’t nearly as intimidating as years past, and as he gets older, he’s losing explosiveness. Last year, the majority of his routes were destined to be around the sticks. Per Pro Football Focus, here is a breakdown of his targets in terms of distance from line of scrimmage.

Yikes. If Graham isn’t catching touchdowns, unless there is a steep change in how Green Bay plans to deploy him this season, he might not be in a position to rack up receiving yards. Furthermore, if Valdes-Scantling, Allison and Jones all take steps forward in the passing game, perhaps Graham is an afterthought in an offense that has never fully relied on the tight end anyways. I mean, at least his final year in Seattle saw him score plenty of touchdowns despite a subpar yardage output, but last season, it wasn’t much of either!

If you aren’t concerned about Graham in 2019, you should be. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. Among tight ends who played at least 50 percent of the snaps last season, Graham’s 1.87 fantasy points per touch was tied with the underwhelming Kyle Rudolph for 17^th-best, and let me mention that there were only 23 qualified tight ends (per Pro Football Focus). Yikes.

Graham’s current average draft position (ADP) in NFFC drafts is TE17, coming in at pick 157. However, in our projections, his projected stat line gives him a top eight finish with a stat line that sees a few more touchdowns coming his way. Drafting Graham as your TE1 might be a risky proposition, but if he’s your second tight end, you have a more than adequate backup option that could potentially give you some trade power as the season goes on. At 32 years old, the top-tier TE1 days are over for Graham, especially donning the green and yellow.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
sharpfootballstats.com
pro-football-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football