2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Hunter Henry

There are very definitive tiers of tight ends in the National Football League, especially for fantasy purposes. If you’re looking for someone to take that jump in 2019, head out to San Diego, err, Los Angeles and take a look at Hunter Henry . In 2016 as a rookie, he caught 36 of 53 targets for 478 yards and eight touchdowns. Finding the end zone put him on the map, but the following season, the overall production was a bit underwhelming. He caught 45 passes for 579 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games that year. Then, the unfortunate news came about that Henry tore his ACL on May 22^nd, 2018. He missed the entirety of the regular season, but did play in the team’s playoff loss to the New England Patriots. Henry received one target in that game.

Now, with a full offseason of health, Henry is the clear-cut starter for this team and will be the more athletic Antonio Gates that Rivers has played with in years past. While the overall numbers in 2017 may not have been indicative of a surefire TE1 this season, there were a lot of positive takeaways for the former Arkansas standout, including that his reception percentage and yards per reception stayed similar, and quarterback Philip Rivers still had a passer rating of 127.0 when targeting Henry that season.

In 2016 and 2017, Henry posted an Average Depth of Target (aDOT) over 10, and in 2018, only eight tight ends did that. Furthermore, only two of those tight ends saw more than 60 targets (Rob Gronkowski , Eric Ebron ). Gaining more confidence in his surgically-repaired knee should give fantasy owners confidence that Henry will rank amongst the best in the position in this category. If Henry averages right around 10 yards per target in 2018, that should easily place him within the top 10 tight ends in the league.

If we set our restrictions to tight ends that play at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps, his 0.21 fantasy points per snap, per Pro Football Focus, would have been seventh-best in 2018, and his 2.82 fantasy points per touch would have been seventh-best as well, slotting in just behind Rob Gronkowski . That’s pretty darn good.

Will Henry get the volume of a Travis Kelce , Zach Ertz or George Kittle ? Probably not. However, Henry is going to be one of the most efficient tight ends in the league this season. By being free of Antonio Gates ’ shadow, Henry is poised for a productive fantasy season. Not only should he be efficient with the targets he’s given, but he should see an increased target share as well. Take a look at the tight end target share, per lineups.com, for the Chargers tight ends in recent seasons.

It’s worth noting that Henry didn’t play in 2018, and in 2017, Henry saw 10.6 percent of the team’s targets, while Gates saw 8.9 percent. If you want a game changer at the tight end position, you are going to have to use one of your first three or four picks on a Kelce, Ertz or Kittle. However, Henry comes in the next tier of tight ends in the six or seventh round along the likes of Evan Engram , O.J. Howard and Eric Ebron . All of these players certainly have their flaws, whether it be injury, consistency or repeatability concerns, making this truly a “pick-em” scenario when attacking a tight end in this tier.

Henry is our sixth tight end in our preseason rankings, firmly entrenching him in a deep second tier of tight ends. However, one could break this tier into two, and Henry would be in the upper half of it. His projected stat line is rather modest (61 rec., 673 yds., 5.7 TDs) if he can stay healthy. However, that is one HUGE if. Injuries have been a problem for Henry in his young career, but a tight-end friendly quarterback in Philip Rivers opens the door to a top five fantasy season at the tight end position.

Henry is a reliable TE1 with considerable upside in 2019, assuming he stays healthy.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
lineups.com