2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: George Kittle

If you want to avoid the barren wasteland that is the tight end position, you are going to have to spend uber-premium draft capital on a tight end. There are the big three that you can invest in. At time of writing, Travis Kelce has an ADP of 16.71, Zach Ertz has an ADP of 24.78, and George Kittle is right behind at 27.25. Kelce is the clear-cut, consensus No.1 at the position, but the gap between Kittle and Ertz behind Kelce is rather substantial, considering Ertz and Kittle have some flaws in their fantasy outlook for the 2019. Sure, you’re really splitting hairs between the two as there are a ton of similarities for the two elite tight ends within their respective offenses. The one difference between Ertz and Kittle is that the latter doesn’t have a premium draft pick nipping at him from behind, or a tried-and-true No. 1 receiver in the offense.

Jimmy Garoppolo coming back will be a welcoming sign for the 49ers faithful, but Kittle has been subpar with the former Patriot at the helm of the offense. In Kittle’s last eight games with Garoppolo, here are his stat lines.

The last three games in the table above were the first three weeks of the season before Garoppolo went down with the torn ACL. The numbers for Kittle have been less than ideal with Garoppolo under center; however, we simply cannot ignore that Kittle set the single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end last season. That’s phenomenal to say the least. He averaged 63.7 yards per game through the first three weeks of the season with Jimmy G, and if you extrapolate that over the course of a full season, Kittle would still end with over 1,000 yards, and finished third amongst all tight ends.

Pro Football Focus breaks down some fantasy stats of note for fantasy owners, and there is a stark difference in Kittle’s fantasy output last season when analyzing who was under center for the Niners. Take a look at Kittle’s numbers and ranks (amongst tight ends that played at least 50 percent of the snaps) with and without for Garoppolo.

Can Kittle repeat what he did in 2018? It’s going to be hard to say the least. Garoppolo clearly has a thing for Dante Pettis ; Trent Taylor is getting rave reviews, and speedster Marquise Goodwin looks to be healthier in 2019. Again, Kittle broke the single-season record for receiving yards in a season by a tight end. Can he break it again? Perhaps. Where Kittle can help fantasy owners is by finding the end zone more often. He’s shown that he has a knack for the big plays certainly. Three of his five touchdowns last year were 40 or more yards. The yardage of his touchdown receptions last year are as follows: 82, 10, 5, 85 and 43.

However, one area of improvement for Kittle would be increasing his red zone presence. Last season, he saw just 18 targets inside the 20-yard line, per Pro Football Reference. He received more than two red zone targets just once all season last year, which came in the season finale against the Rams. There is certainly regression coming in the yardage department, as I find it hard to believe that Kittle eclipses 1,400 yards this season, but he could offset the loss in production in that department by finding the end zone a few more times this season.

There is no denying just how good Kittle’s 2018 season was, but his current average draft position is assuming he can get close to what he did last season, or perhaps even be a little better. No tight end is flawless in fantasy football, except maybe Kelce, but when it comes to deciding on that second tight end, Ertz and Kittle both have some flaws. Kittle is an exceptional talent and should have a very productive season, but even at a thin position, it should be tough to select Kittle with guys like Keenan Allen , T.Y. Hilton , and Leonard Fournette potentially still on the board.

Again, I understand the desire to get a top-tier player at a thin position, but there are some players at the position that can be had a couple rounds later that are ready for more productive seasons, on a relative value basis

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football