If you’re in on Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin this season, welcome to the club. You’re one of about 1.2 million players that like him to break out in 2019. Mike Evans is the team’s top receiver and there is no questioning that, but it’s hard not to be excited about Godwin this season. There are people drafting Godwin as their WR1, which is risky, but I like it, especially if you can lead the way with three dominant running backs, or perhaps two and a tight end. Regardless, Godwin is on just about everyone’s radar, and rightfully so. He caught 59 balls on 95 targets for 842 yards and seven touchdowns. There’s a lot to like about Godwin this year, starting with the fact that the workload should increase.

Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson have vacated the Sunshine State, and the two combined for 117 receptions on 179 targets for 1,590 yards and nine touchdowns. That’s a lot of potential opportunity for Godwin, and the other Tampa Bay receivers of course. Humphries is gone, meaning Tampa Bay will need someone to man the slot with regularity, which Godwin can do. Jackson’s departure creates the need for a deep threat, which Godwin can be. See what I’m getting at here?

For this exercise, let’s compare two receivers and their work in the red zone in 2018. I’ll give you a spoiler here, yes, Godwin is one of them, but can you guess the other? My guess is that you cannot.

 

Inside the 20

 

Inside the 10

 

TDs

Target Share

 

TDs

Target Share

Receiver A

6

18.2%

 

4

30.6%

Receiver B

4

15.9%

 

3

16.7%

 


Godwin is Receiver A, which you probably guessed, as I’m trying to illustrate a point here. Receiver B is actually his teammate, and No. 1 receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Mike Evans . Yes, you read that right. Despite a less impressive stature than Evans, Godwin commanded the highest red zone target share in Tampa Bay last season, per Pro Football Reference. Godwin’s red zone prowess, along with the fact that the offense should be more pass-heavy and efficient under Bruce Arians, makes the former Penn State standout a potential double-digit touchdown machine in 2019. Yes, I’m that bullish on him.

I mentioned it above, so let’s say it again. Kliff Kingsbury is getting a lot of buzz for bringing the air raid offense to the National Football League, however, Arians runs a pass-heavy scheme that is fantasy gold. The last two years we saw Arians running the show of an offense, the Arizona Cardinals ranked top five in all of football in passing attempts. 

Furthermore, the [statistical] WR2 in an Arians offense has had some decent seasons over the years. Take a look for yourself.

YEAR

RECEIVER

Targets-Receptions-TDs-Yards

2014

John Brown

102-48-5-696

2015

John Brown

101-65-7-1003

2016

JJ Nelson

74-34-6-568

2017

Jaron Brown

69-31-4-477

 

 

With a bad defense and Arians’ pass-heavy scheme, it’s not a surprise that Godwin’s numbers will increase across the board. Furthermore, he’s more talented than any receiver above, providing ample optimism for Godwin in 2019. I mean, if John Brown can eclipse 1,000 yards and find the end zone seven times, imagine what Godwin could do!? OH BABY!!!

In Arians’ final four seasons at the helm of the Arizona offense, the quarterback position averaged a whopping 593.5 pass attempts. However, the team has a horrible defense, and the opposition will score at will, so believe it or not, that could be the floor in total passing attempts for Winston in 2019. We’ll round it up to 600 for the sake of Godwin’s projection that is in a table below.

Per Lineups.com, Godwin received 13.6 percent of the targets last season. Jackson and Humphries combined for a whopping 29.9 percent of the targets last year. It’s certainly feasible to believe that Godwin could get to the 15-18 percent range in terms of target share this season. The young receiver caught 62 percent of his targets last year, so let’s factor in a slight improvement up to 63.5 percent. Furthermore, he scored a touchdown every 13.6  targets last year and has a career mark of 14.7 yards per reception, and we’ll keep those same marks when factoring a range of outcomes for Godwin in 2019. 

Target Share %

Targets

Receptions

Yards

TDs

15%

90

57.15

840.1

6.6

16%

96

60.96

896.1

7.1

17%

102

64.77

952.1

7.5

18%

108

68.58

1,008.1

7.9

 

 

Here you go, here’s the sentence you want to hear. I’m so high on Godwin, that I think he bests each of the numbers in the final row of the table above! Yes, Godwin should exceed 108 targets, 68.5 receptions, 1,008 yards and 7.9 touchdowns! It’s going to happen.

In what should be a resurgent year for Jameis Winston under Bruce Arians, combined with a porous defense, this offense is going to rely on the aerial attack early and often. The team will be playing from behind often in 2019, and Godwin simply may never come off the field, per Arians. Godwin is good in the red zone and has the rapport with Winston.

Buckle up, folks, it’s going to be a hell of a ride for the potential back-end WR1 in 2019.

Statistical Credits:
pro-football-reference.com
lineups.com