2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Andrew Luck

UPDATE (8/24): Andrew Luck has retired from the National Football League. Congrats on one hell of a career, Andrew. Enjoy retirement!

Is Andrew Luck alive? Why is he only throwing tennis balls? Will we ever witness an Andrew Luck pass in the National Football League again? Those were a few of many statements coming out during the dreaded 2017 season and heading into the 2018 campaign. Not only did we see Luck back in the NFL, but we saw him come back and post an MVP-worthy season, and arguably his second-best statistical season as a professional football-thrower. He completed a career high 67.3 percent of his passes, and he was one touchdown shy of tying his career best. The 71.5 QBR he posted was the best of his career, as was his Quarterback Ranking of 98.7.

In fact, let’s look at the numbers. After missing all of 2018, it was a banner season for Luck, who nearly bested his sensational 2014 campaign. Let’s compare those two seasons.

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

Simply put, Luck was sensational in 2018, and if it weren’t for some young gun in Kansas City, Luck may have won the Most Valuable Player award. He ended the year as the QB5 (per Pro Football Focus) in fantasy football, trailing Patrick Mahomes , Matt Ryan , Ben Roethlisberger and division foe Deshaun Watson . Despite some minute concerns about a calf injury here in the preseason, Luck’s availability for the season shouldn’t be threatened, and at time of writing, Luck is currently the second quarterback off the board (pick 50.66 per NFFC) behind Mahomes. Luck will need to best the lofty numbers from last year to bridge the gap between him and Mahomes, but he has a great chance to do such a thing.

Luck was one of five quarterbacks with at least seven 300-yard passing efforts last year, and he hasn’t lost any of his primary contributors from last season. In fact, he gained some! Indianapolis drafted speedy receiver Parris Campbell to give Luck yet another weapon, and his tried-and-true tight end Jack Doyle will look to shake off the hip issue from last season. Eric Ebron will be a valuable asset in the red zone, and T.Y. Hilton is one of the most underrated wideouts in the National Football League. Despite some talented and improved secondaries within the AFC South and NFL as a whole, the Colts simply have too many weapons to cover. It will be a real problem for the league.

The Colts’ defense is improved, so while there may not be as many shootouts with the Colts, they do have a chance to have some high-scoring affairs due to some of the offenses they will be playing this season. Also, if you take a look at the AFC South, we may continue to get a few higher-scoring affairs, despite the division having a reputation for weaker offenses and stronger defenses. Consider this….

• The Jaguars added Nick Foles and should get a bounce back season from talented young running back Leonard Fournette . Pairing a healthy receiving core with Foles and getting the rapport solidified early on will help the Jags take advantage of their schedule that is littered with below-average pass defenses.
• The Titans will ride Derrick Henry in a run-heavy attack, and adding Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown in the passing game gives Marcus Mariota , or Ryan Tannehill , more weapons.
• My Texans boast a potentially electric offense with budding superstar Deshaun Watson and the best receiver in football in DeAndre Hopkins . Will Fuller and Keke Coutee compliment Hopkins’ skill set perfectly and the Texans should be able to put up points on a weekly basis. Even if the secondary is improved to league average, the two matchups this year with the Texans will determine the AFC South crown.

Sure, the defenses above are solid, but the Colts will put up points against them, and if the offenses can score against the Colts defense, it only strengthens the notion that the Colts will need to put up points to win these competitive games.

Now, here is the biggest question. Can Luck get even better? I mean, sure why not? Another year removed from the shoulder issue, and the addition of the speedy Ohio State rookie (Campbell), we could see Luck get back to his intended air yards total from 2016. Per Next Gen Stats, Luck’s average intended air yards was 7.6 yards in 2018, but back in 2016, it was a hair under nine yards. There is a real chance that Luck gets back to really airing it out, and with receivers like Hilton and Campbell, why the heck not? Sure, he will continue to pick apart defenses by spreading the ball around, but he may take an extra deep shot or two here or there, and if a few of these connect, Luck could break the 40 touchdown barrier for the second time in his career.

Oh yeah, even with Marlon Mack being a solid running back,  the Colts employ a pass-happy attack, and you can’t blame them. Per Sharp Football Stats, take a look at just how pass-happy Indianapolis is in various situations.

Courtesy of Sharp Football Stats

There’s plenty to go around in Indy. Luck threw 39 touchdown passes last season, and Mack still ran for nine scores. The offense should be better, and Luck is far from a non-zero in the rushing department. He could easily run for 200 yards with a score or two this season, and that is uber-valuable on top of his gaudy passing numbers. He doesn’t have to run much, thanks to arguably the league’s best offensive line, but he can when the moment is called upon.

Luck is in line for a monster year and if Mahomes experiences some statistical regression, and Luck throws for 40+ touchdowns, we could see Luck as the QB1 by seasons end. To me, it’s a three-man race between Mahomes, Watson and Luck, and even with Watson going about 10 picks behind Luck, the Indianapolis signal caller remains a solid value heading into the year.

UPDATE: Andrew Luck has retired from the National Football League. Congrats on one hell of a career, Andrew. Enjoy retirement!

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nextgenstats.nfl.com
sharpfootballstats.com