After an impressive rookie campaign that saw him tally over 1,500 yards from the line of scrimmage with 13 touchdowns, New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara took it to another level in 2018. He saw 100 or more targets for the second straight season, and even though he fell just shy of surpassing 1,600 total yards, he scored a whopping 18 touchdowns in 15 games! Kamara is one of the best dual-threat running backs in the National Football League and he was one of just three running backs in the league to register not one, but two games with over 100 rushing and receiving yards in the same game. Mark Ingram is out of town, only to be replaced by Latavius Murray , but Kamara is too important to New Orleans to have any potential fantasy owner worried about production in 2019.
First and foremost, Kamara is one of just a handful of running backs currently in the league that has a legitimate chance at 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in a single season. Sure, overall workload is a factor in that, which will be touched upon later, but he’s electric enough in both facets of the offensive attack to make a genuine run at it.
Per Pro Football Focus, Kamara’s 0.53 fantasy points per snap was the highest mark in the league among all running backs that saw at least 50 percent of the snaps. He didn’t qualify in 2017, but if you drop the restriction to 25 percent of the snaps Kamara’s 0.67 fantasy points per snap led the league. Also, fun fact, teammate Mark Ingram (0.50) was second that season. Since entering the league, Kamara has been one of the most productive per snap fantasy options in the game. To further validate that, in 2017, he averaged 1.56 fantasy points per touch, which trailed only Kyle Juszczyk (1.88) and James White (1.53). Especially in PPR formats, his role in the passing attack helps offset some weaker rushing performances, but don’t devalue him in standard formats either, as he has a knack for finding the end zone. He’s played 31 games in the National Football League and has scored 31 times.
For his career, he’s averaging over five receptions per game and while his efficiency faltered from the year before, it was to be expected. He still averaged 5.8 yards per touch, which was right on par with Christian McCaffrey (6.0), Saquon Barkley (5.8) and Ezekiel Elliott (5.3). Again, you’re hard-pressed to find a more effective fantasy running back per touch than New Orleans’ Kamara.
While he’ll continue to develop as the lead guy in the offense, and build upon last year’s 4.6 yards per carry, he’s already an elite pass-catching running back, and some stats at Pro Football Focus encapsulate that. Of running backs that saw 50 percent of the snaps last season, Kamara ranked in the top five in the following statistical categories: Reception percentage, Average Depth of Target (aDOT), yards per target and yards per reception. Excellent!
However, it’s not all lollipops and gumdrops with the electrifying running back. In 2017, albeit in a more limited rushing role, he topped 100 yards in a game just once. In 2018, he still topped 100 yards just once (134 yards in Week 4), and he eclipsed 80 rushing yards in a game just three times. Furthermore, for fantasy owners attempting to make that late season push, he topped 80 rushing yards just once over the last seven weeks of the season. The presence of Mark Ingram aided in the fact that Kamara has never received 20 carries in a single game in his career. Additionally, despite such a strong presence in the passing attack, Kamara received 20 or more touches just five times all season, and just once in the final seven weeks of the regular season. However, this can be parlayed into great value in dynasty formats, as Kamara doesn’t have some of the wear-and-tear other top running backs have had to manage.
Sure, those factoids in the paragraph above are notable, but Kamara doesn’t need a ton of touches to reward his fantasy owners. In PPR formats, Kamara has put up back-to-back top five fantasy campaigns, despite all of the things above “limiting” him. Ingram has been replaced by Murray in the offense, and while the Saints can mention all of the “thunder and lightning” clichés they want, Kamara is the RB1 and they will continue to give him the necessary work on a weekly basis.
Kamara should surpass 1,600 total yards this season, en route to another top five finish at the running back position.
Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com