We already stoked the fire of some players with our article on the “Fantasy Winners” based on the 2019 NFL draft and now it’s time to pour a little cold water on some embers with our losers from the NFL draft. With every draft pick there is going to be a loser. Whether you’re a player who sees the general manager hand picking your replacement or your a general manager who sees another team stealing your guy or whether you’re a quarterback who just wants a little protection this year while your team drafts a defensive tackle, someone’s job gets a little bit harder with every selection.

In this article we’re going to comb through the draft and see if we can identify which players are getting pressed with the leverage of draft capital and talent and which players might not have gotten the support they need for the upcoming year. Here we’ll take a look at each position group and tell you who may have gotten the short end of the draft stick.

 

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph, TE - MIN

In fantasy we care about catches. And you can typically derive those from targets which you can derive based on snaps. But here at fantasy alarm we go a step deeper than that – especially at tight end. Because not all tight end snaps are created equal. Here’s a little example based on snap info from ProFootballFocus’s Premium Stat database.

Here we have two guys who played a similar number of stats and one guy who played much fewer. Yet despite playing over 200 less snaps, Eric Ebron was the tight end 4 in half point PPR, Rudolph was the tight end 8, and Tyler Higbee was tight end who cares. That’s because, in his limited snaps, Ebron was part of the attack 77% of the time while Higbee was part of the defense 79% of the time. Not all snaps created equal.

At this point what I’m getting at should be becoming obvious. Irv Smith Jr had 710 yards and seven touchdowns his senior year. He ran the 3rd fastest 40-time for tight ends. He was drafted in the second round. And not to block. So not only do we expect to see Rudolph’s snaps drop a bit, it’s likely that the snaps he does lose will be passing down stats putting his attack percentage at a level that belongs on the waiver wire.

Jake Butt, TE DEN

This one just hurts all the way around and you have to feel for the guy. Butt tore his ACL towards his freshman year but recovered well enough to be a first-team All-American and win the Ozzie Newsome award for the best college tight end. He then decides to go back to school instead of opting for the draft and kills his draft capital by tearing his ACL in the Orange Bowl, suffering nerve damage in the process. He then gets drafted in the 5th round by the Denver Broncos after previously being projected as high as the first round. After sitting out 2017, he then earned the starting tight end job only to tear his ACL for a third time in practice in a non-contact drill. And for the cherry on top the Broncos then decide to take one of the best tight end prospects over the last two years in Noah Fant with the 20th overall pick in the 2019 draft. Butt is undoubtedly a loser based on the criteria of this article but he’s a winner in my book for the way he’s battled and lived out his dream of making it to the league. I’ll be rooting for him to recover one more time and show us what he can do.

 

Wide Receiver

Titans Receivers

I’m not sure whether AJ Brown going to the Titans is worse for Brown or worse for Corey Davis but it’s honestly not good for either of them. And this truly illustrates how the draft can affect the career trajectory of these players and their fantasy implications. Pre-draft a number of analysts, including myself, had AJ Brown as a top receiver, if not THE top receiver, coming out. After he was drafted by the Titans I moved him down for this season to 7th amount rookies. If there were you top two wideouts on a prolific passing offense like Pittsburgh, Tampa, or Indianapolis then you would be excited for both of them, but those three teams averaged ~650 pass attempts between them while the Titans attempted 437, second lowest in the league. Throw in the fact that they overpaid Adam Humphries and the return of Delanie Walker and there simply just simply aren’t enough targets to go around. A real shame.

Alshon Jeffrey, WR PHI

This one may not be a huge issue for this season, but we felt it was worth mentioning here because he is clearly on the hot seat with the selection of JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Alshon Jeffrey is a 6’3” 216-pound wide receiver who ran a 4.48 at the combine and was selected in the 2nd round. JJ Arcega-Whiteside is a 6’3” 225-pound wide receiver who ran a 4.48 at the combine and was selected in the second round. Alshon Jeffrey is scheduled to have a $15,975,000 cap hit next year and cutting would save $12,000,000 in cap space. JJ Arcega-Whiteside’s cap hit for next year is $1,125,278. You catch my drift?  If they think JJAWs can replicate the production of the oft-injured Alshon Jeffrey, they have 11 million reasons to let him go and slot Arcega Whiteside in at split end.

 

Running Back

Tarik Cohen, RB CHI

In a lot of people’s minds, the trading of Jordan Howard was good for Tarik Cohen but, if you peel back the layers a bit, it’s quite revealing of what the future holds for Tarik Cohen . Matt Nagy, working under Andy Reid, had run a one back system based on deception – because the back could both run and catch you had to be honest on every play. Their strategy was to have a lead back and then another back just like him ready to come off the bench. The previous Bears system was to run with Howard and then throw with Cohen in a two back system similar to what the Patriots would run. A lot of people were interested to see what Nagy might do with the personnel he inherited and now we know – he’s going to clean house.

The first shoe to drop was the signing of Mike Davis . On only 391 snaps he managed to have 112 rush attempts and 34 receptions with Seattle last year. You give Davis the 624 snaps Jordan Howard had and that’s a healthy 171 rushes and 54 catches. Once Davis was on board Howard became expendable and was moved. And then finally, as we know from our round by round draft series, the Bears traded up in the draft to acquire David Montgomery. Now, your first thought might be to say, “well isn’t Mike Davis a loser here?”  Well yes, he is, but only because he now needs to compete with David Montgomery for the top runningback spot on the depth chart. As both can catch and pass, they fit Naggy’s system very well. Leaving Cohen the odd man out. And once you really look at it, if Cohen is primarily going to be used in a passing role, Taylor Gabriel gives you a lot of the same things Cohen offers with bigger size, similar speed, and better route running ability. Given he is still on his rookie deal, I expect the Bears will utilize Cohen where they can and he will likely still have some explosive and awesome plays here and there but we have a hard time believing his work load will be large enough or consistent enough to be worth his current ADP.

Running Nacks with Bad Knees

These two picks have already sent shockwaves through the fantasy community and perhaps may even lower ADPs to the point where you could get a steal. But it’s pretty clearly not ideal for Todd Gurley , Sony Michel , or Dalvin Cook that their teams felt the need to use third round draft capital on new running backs. It’s especially worrisome for Sony Michel as the Patriots have not had a runningback with both 200+ carries and 35-plus receptions in the same season for the entire Belichick era. Seriously – the last Patriots runningbacks to have both were Robert Edwards and Curtis Martin in the late 90s. The passing down back usually fares well but the running down back need volume to be successful. Now, we’ve seen Sony have a nice year last year with only seven catches and we saw LeGarrette Blount score 18(!) touchdowns with only seven catches but, if Damien Harris eats into Michel’s workload whatsoever, you aren’t getting a good return on your investment at his ADP with under 200 rushing attempts. The news about arthritis in Gurley’s knee makes his addition the second most troubling with Dalvin Cook not worrying us as much though, as the starting RB, you’d rather see the team do what the Dolphins or Chiefs did and draft a runningback in the late late rounds than throw down a top 100 pick on a guy that does what you get paid to do.

 

Quarterback

Quarterback typically has the most at stake during the draft so we decided it would be easier to just give you the short and sweet for each of this years losers.

Hot Seat

  • Eli Manning – His job was safe last year when they opted to take Saquon Barkley instead of a QB. After taking Daniel Jones at 6th overall, it doesn’t see anyone has a shorter leash.
  • Joe Flacco – Everyone knew the Broncos would likely be targeting a QB. Flacco has to prove he’s not just a stop gap before the Drew Lock era begins.

Help Wanted

  • Sam Darnold – As we discussed in our “Winners” column, the Jets receiving core is fairly thin though we do like Robby Anderson . Besides not selecting any wide receivers or runningbacks, the Jets took a tackle who likely won’t even stat and a hybrid tight end/fullback in Trevon Wesco and that was it for offensive players. Might be why they fired their GM.
  • Philip Rivers – The Chargers are a team that seemingly takes a wide out every year. Not this time. And they didn’t use an early pick on the glaring need at offensive tackle either, opting for a defensive tackle and a safety before taking Trey Pipkins. They also only used two picks on the offense and one of them was used to draft quarterback Easton Stick who should beat

Vaporized